So you are quoting someone who has a losing record in baseball this year...losing record for the last 6 months...
Also Colorado totals are always higher and 3 runs is no big deal...higher elevation...there is always more high scoring games there ever since they stated playing there...so the whole pointof that paragraph is based on false info...
Don't pay attention to what I say because I'm a LIAR
We know that, don't worry
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
So you are quoting someone who has a losing record in baseball this year...losing record for the last 6 months...
Also Colorado totals are always higher and 3 runs is no big deal...higher elevation...there is always more high scoring games there ever since they stated playing there...so the whole pointof that paragraph is based on false info...
Don't pay attention to what I say because I'm a LIAR
you're absolutely right. Every single person on this thread is actually MK, and he has a losing record in baseball this season, and you're a good capper
Give it a rest pitch black - peopel aren't stupid. You were all over that guy's dick before and then suddenly decided to make yourself a publicity through him and now you're lying about his record which is well documented and posted for everyone to see? You are pathetic liar. Bravo meraby
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
My last message is for 1forall...aka MK...
you're absolutely right. Every single person on this thread is actually MK, and he has a losing record in baseball this season, and you're a good capper
Give it a rest pitch black - peopel aren't stupid. You were all over that guy's dick before and then suddenly decided to make yourself a publicity through him and now you're lying about his record which is well documented and posted for everyone to see? You are pathetic liar. Bravo meraby
I have only been a member of his site for 6 months...so I can verify that his negative unit showing is true before that who knows anyone can get a website and make up a winning record...notice his plays are not monitered by anyone...
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I have only been a member of his site for 6 months...so I can verify that his negative unit showing is true before that who knows anyone can get a website and make up a winning record...notice his plays are not monitered by anyone...
you are desperate pitch black for some attention! MK was not born out of blue but retired from here and got that site and people who followed him here continued over there. Get the fuck out of my thread. You're getting annoying. I want this thread to pursue it's real call and not your BS
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you are desperate pitch black for some attention! MK was not born out of blue but retired from here and got that site and people who followed him here continued over there. Get the fuck out of my thread. You're getting annoying. I want this thread to pursue it's real call and not your BS
If you ask me, the total in the Boston/Baltimore game of 8.5 looks shady to me. Beckett has been a gas can lately and the Red Sox can put up runs, especially against lefties. So a total of 8.5? The public is hammering the over with over 90% of the action on it, and the line is holding steady at 8.5. So is it a vegas gift or a vegas trap? I'm wrong plenty but I say trap. I think Beckett's back is feeling better and both pitchers are looking to bounce back from sub-par outings last game.
This is an example of what I'm talking about.
I couldn't AGREE more with this!
In my experience, momentum cappers & regression cappers can make money. The problem the momentum player faces is when they find something that's "Too good to be true." Team A's on a huge winning streak, and just won by 7 runs 2 straight games, and they're now coming home where they have an outstanding home record. Momentum players - cross this game off of your board. It's that simple. Find another team who's about to start a nice streak.
The problem regression players face is "making too many plays." Not everything is regression. When a 60% team wins 4 in a row and their last one by 5 runs. THIS IS NOT REGRESSION. What the regression player should look for is a 50% team that just won by 8 runs back to back and is now heading out of town where they have an enormous road record that cannot sustain itself.
So then why do most gamblers lose? For the same reason why I suck at poker! I play too many hands!
BOL -
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Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:
If you ask me, the total in the Boston/Baltimore game of 8.5 looks shady to me. Beckett has been a gas can lately and the Red Sox can put up runs, especially against lefties. So a total of 8.5? The public is hammering the over with over 90% of the action on it, and the line is holding steady at 8.5. So is it a vegas gift or a vegas trap? I'm wrong plenty but I say trap. I think Beckett's back is feeling better and both pitchers are looking to bounce back from sub-par outings last game.
This is an example of what I'm talking about.
I couldn't AGREE more with this!
In my experience, momentum cappers & regression cappers can make money. The problem the momentum player faces is when they find something that's "Too good to be true." Team A's on a huge winning streak, and just won by 7 runs 2 straight games, and they're now coming home where they have an outstanding home record. Momentum players - cross this game off of your board. It's that simple. Find another team who's about to start a nice streak.
The problem regression players face is "making too many plays." Not everything is regression. When a 60% team wins 4 in a row and their last one by 5 runs. THIS IS NOT REGRESSION. What the regression player should look for is a 50% team that just won by 8 runs back to back and is now heading out of town where they have an enormous road record that cannot sustain itself.
So then why do most gamblers lose? For the same reason why I suck at poker! I play too many hands!
I have only been a member of his site for 6 months...so I can verify that his negative unit showing is true before that who knows anyone can get a website and make up a winning record...notice his plays are not monitered by anyone...
BTW, since you stirred this thread into MK and also doubted him (you know he's great, but you tried to doubt him) - he went 5-0 sweep today in MLB after 5-2 Yesterday. And congrats 14 for your sweep as well today!
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
I have only been a member of his site for 6 months...so I can verify that his negative unit showing is true before that who knows anyone can get a website and make up a winning record...notice his plays are not monitered by anyone...
BTW, since you stirred this thread into MK and also doubted him (you know he's great, but you tried to doubt him) - he went 5-0 sweep today in MLB after 5-2 Yesterday. And congrats 14 for your sweep as well today!
Not so sure about tonight. I think they put a fair total out there, and the over was lucky as hell it hit.
I do think the total in LA was what I call a fake trap, or a gift back to the public. It sat at 8 all day and looked like such an easy over. And it was.
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Quote Originally Posted by 2169:
The SF/Was totals the last two nights were traps
Not so sure about tonight. I think they put a fair total out there, and the over was lucky as hell it hit.
I do think the total in LA was what I call a fake trap, or a gift back to the public. It sat at 8 all day and looked like such an easy over. And it was.
OK ladies and gents, here are todays games which drew a special interest from sharps and let us see why? And right after that lets examine today's card for Traps:
Games that sharps attacked early were:
PHI@MIA Totals
DET@MIN Totals
LAD@PIT Totals
BOS@BAL ML
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OK ladies and gents, here are todays games which drew a special interest from sharps and let us see why? And right after that lets examine today's card for Traps:
PHI@MIA The game being an early one has drawn much attention and the early action on Under has caused the line to come down from an original 7.5 to 7.
Quote:
An early game in Miami caught a lot of attention and bettors money totals wise and side wise as well. Halladay vs Buehrle does not seem like a riddle to most. So, after separating the action between the totals and the sides, I can see that money in large portions - as I call it - Big Money has been on Miami and Under. Miami coming big from Asian market and Under big from an early action (what is referred as sharp action). Please pay attention to one interesting fact: Under was pounded in a very condensed way like someone was trying to bring the line down which very well result in late action on Over to gain the margin.
My lean here as early as now is: MIA ML, Over 7
So, I would say there is entrappment there making everyone to go on a clear away favorite with the line a bit tempting. I am not getting tempted.
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PHI@MIA The game being an early one has drawn much attention and the early action on Under has caused the line to come down from an original 7.5 to 7.
Quote:
An early game in Miami caught a lot of attention and bettors money totals wise and side wise as well. Halladay vs Buehrle does not seem like a riddle to most. So, after separating the action between the totals and the sides, I can see that money in large portions - as I call it - Big Money has been on Miami and Under. Miami coming big from Asian market and Under big from an early action (what is referred as sharp action). Please pay attention to one interesting fact: Under was pounded in a very condensed way like someone was trying to bring the line down which very well result in late action on Over to gain the margin.
My lean here as early as now is: MIA ML, Over 7
So, I would say there is entrappment there making everyone to go on a clear away favorite with the line a bit tempting. I am not getting tempted.
The game in Minnesota is a challenging one as DeVries is coming off an awful 1 1/2 innings performance in his last outing and it is hard to expect the repetition of that otherwise the managerial staff would skip him. That for me already is a half of an Under play. I'm not sure side wise here since the odds on Sherzer to win seem in the area of normalcy considering it is an away team odds.
I will lean here MIN RL and Under 9.5
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The game in Minnesota is a challenging one as DeVries is coming off an awful 1 1/2 innings performance in his last outing and it is hard to expect the repetition of that otherwise the managerial staff would skip him. That for me already is a half of an Under play. I'm not sure side wise here since the odds on Sherzer to win seem in the area of normalcy considering it is an away team odds.
Possible Trap I see on totals in Baltimore (Following yesterday's id of Pasteur of a trap on Over) where the line is 9.5 and should be a run lower. After Yeaserday - and with Boston's away U/O stats - I would say the game is gonna Over and we are to be convinced it goes Under.
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Possible Trap I see on totals in Baltimore (Following yesterday's id of Pasteur of a trap on Over) where the line is 9.5 and should be a run lower. After Yeaserday - and with Boston's away U/O stats - I would say the game is gonna Over and we are to be convinced it goes Under.
I don't see anything really "off" looking about any of the early games. Lines and totals seem right to me. Some people might think Halladay at -130ish is cheap but this is an average Phillies team playing on the road. Miami surely has a shot to win it. Probably a no play for me.
The other line people seem to cry foul about is how cheap Strasburg is at -120, but he'll likely be gone by the 6th inning and then you have a pretty bad bullpen come in to mop up, and that's where it can go wrong for the Nats. The line is fine.
Totals seem fine to me too. I think the only early play I'll be on is the under in Seattle. There's nothing shady about a total of 6.5, it's just a straight play on two teams that are trending under.
Haven't looked at the later games yet. Busy at work
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I don't see anything really "off" looking about any of the early games. Lines and totals seem right to me. Some people might think Halladay at -130ish is cheap but this is an average Phillies team playing on the road. Miami surely has a shot to win it. Probably a no play for me.
The other line people seem to cry foul about is how cheap Strasburg is at -120, but he'll likely be gone by the 6th inning and then you have a pretty bad bullpen come in to mop up, and that's where it can go wrong for the Nats. The line is fine.
Totals seem fine to me too. I think the only early play I'll be on is the under in Seattle. There's nothing shady about a total of 6.5, it's just a straight play on two teams that are trending under.
Haven't looked at the later games yet. Busy at work
For every "trap play" that ends up hitting, one will not. People who believe in this kind of nonsense only look at the examples that support their contentions and ignore the ones that don't.
If this was an exploitable angle, it would have been exploited a long time ago.
The oddsmakers @ Caesars have said the bookies take positions -- basically, by not moving the number even though the public is pounding one side of the bet.
This is completely different than Vegas knowing the outcome of the game before the fact. Vegas often time makes a killing on the Super Bowl, but sometimes they don't.
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For every "trap play" that ends up hitting, one will not. People who believe in this kind of nonsense only look at the examples that support their contentions and ignore the ones that don't.
If this was an exploitable angle, it would have been exploited a long time ago.
The oddsmakers @ Caesars have said the bookies take positions -- basically, by not moving the number even though the public is pounding one side of the bet.
This is completely different than Vegas knowing the outcome of the game before the fact. Vegas often time makes a killing on the Super Bowl, but sometimes they don't.
PHI@MIA The game being an early one has drawn much attention and the early action on Under has caused the line to come down from an original 7.5 to 7.
Quote:
An early game in Miami caught a lot of attention and bettors money totals wise and side wise as well. Halladay vs Buehrle does not seem like a riddle to most. So, after separating the action between the totals and the sides, I can see that money in large portions - as I call it - Big Money has been on Miami and Under. Miami coming big from Asian market and Under big from an early action (what is referred as sharp action). Please pay attention to one interesting fact: Under was pounded in a very condensed way like someone was trying to bring the line down which very well result in late action on Over to gain the margin.
My lean here as early as now is: MIA ML, Over 7
So, I would say there is entrappment there making everyone to go on a clear away favorite with the line a bit tempting. I am not getting tempted.
Ingenius
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Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:
PHI@MIA The game being an early one has drawn much attention and the early action on Under has caused the line to come down from an original 7.5 to 7.
Quote:
An early game in Miami caught a lot of attention and bettors money totals wise and side wise as well. Halladay vs Buehrle does not seem like a riddle to most. So, after separating the action between the totals and the sides, I can see that money in large portions - as I call it - Big Money has been on Miami and Under. Miami coming big from Asian market and Under big from an early action (what is referred as sharp action). Please pay attention to one interesting fact: Under was pounded in a very condensed way like someone was trying to bring the line down which very well result in late action on Over to gain the margin.
My lean here as early as now is: MIA ML, Over 7
So, I would say there is entrappment there making everyone to go on a clear away favorite with the line a bit tempting. I am not getting tempted.
For every "trap play" that ends up hitting, one will not. People who believe in this kind of nonsense only look at the examples that support their contentions and ignore the ones that don't.
If this was an exploitable angle, it would have been exploited a long time ago.
The oddsmakers @ Caesars have said the bookies take positions -- basically, by not moving the number even though the public is pounding one side of the bet.
This is completely different than Vegas knowing the outcome of the game before the fact. Vegas often time makes a killing on the Super Bowl, but sometimes they don't.
My friend, whatever you're trying to deny - exists. As simple as that. LVSC is not a bunch of naive out of college oddsmakers. Those people have to first of all make sure the books don't lose on games they can't even the sides and totals. Then they have to make sure the betting triads won't be able to manipulate the lines and odds. Then they have to advise about RLM if needed. All those actions are not directed to cheat anyone but to protect the principal interests of the books and we, the simple joes are falling victim to not knowing the real money moves. That is all. As I see this thread, we're trying to unite our knowledge to get as protected as possible from falling victims. That is all. You're trying too hard to prove your shit don't stink, but it does as anyones, although your avatar lady is ...wow
0
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:
For every "trap play" that ends up hitting, one will not. People who believe in this kind of nonsense only look at the examples that support their contentions and ignore the ones that don't.
If this was an exploitable angle, it would have been exploited a long time ago.
The oddsmakers @ Caesars have said the bookies take positions -- basically, by not moving the number even though the public is pounding one side of the bet.
This is completely different than Vegas knowing the outcome of the game before the fact. Vegas often time makes a killing on the Super Bowl, but sometimes they don't.
My friend, whatever you're trying to deny - exists. As simple as that. LVSC is not a bunch of naive out of college oddsmakers. Those people have to first of all make sure the books don't lose on games they can't even the sides and totals. Then they have to make sure the betting triads won't be able to manipulate the lines and odds. Then they have to advise about RLM if needed. All those actions are not directed to cheat anyone but to protect the principal interests of the books and we, the simple joes are falling victim to not knowing the real money moves. That is all. As I see this thread, we're trying to unite our knowledge to get as protected as possible from falling victims. That is all. You're trying too hard to prove your shit don't stink, but it does as anyones, although your avatar lady is ...wow
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