How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game?

Quote Originally Posted by whitewedding:

Every day there is a commission called LVSC and they are the ones who consult the books about the lines and odds. Why they and not someone else? Because they're closely connected as with the pro sports governing bodies as MLB, NBA, NFL , NHL WNBA etc and the books. Since the Pro sports bodies have one goal only - making more profit every year and they know that without sports betting the interest in games will be lower - they cooperate closely with books through LVSC. So, the games are seaprated ona daily bases between the "let it go as it such is" (LIGASIS) and "special treatment" (ST). The weight of ST can never succeed over 25%. Both sides win: the Books know which games to entrtapment and the PSGB (Pro Sports Governing Bodies) create an extra interest, rating and thus revenues from advertising, merchandising etc. 

Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Starting with NCAA basketball last season, I've tried paying particular attention to "shady lines".  The lines that just don't add up and look too easy.  I've noticed the same trend in baseball.  From what I can tell, roughly 2 out of 3 shady lines are traps.  So most of the time if it looks too easy, it is. 

Odds-makers know they can't make EVERY shady line cash in their direction however.  It would be too easy of a pattern for us to pick up on and just bet against it.  They don't want to condition us to correctly avoid the trap.  So they're smart..after raping the public on a couple shady lines, they'll throw a gift back out to the public...a line that looks too easy but it really is just an easy play.  They minimize their losses on these gifts because they know the psyche of a gambler...after getting burned on a couple shady lines the gambling public will hesitate to take the bait again.  And then when the easy pick hits, J.Q. gambler has a sigh of relief and says to himself "see, I do know what I'm doing.  I just got unlucky in those other losses".  And he'll line up at the ticket window to step on the next land mine.

Telling the real traps from what I call the fake traps isn't easy.  In general though if you've noticed the public getting killed on a couple shady lines in a row, go ahead and bet the next play that looks too easy because it's likely the gift back to the public.  And if that easy play hits, go ahead and go opposite of the easy play the next time or two.  I made a nice profit in college hoops last season doing this.  I wasn't always right and you can definitely over-think things, but I enjoy a challenge and have fun trying to figure them out 

Good luck

Quote Originally Posted by kinggeorge27:

Every Sunday night game, go opposite of the play. The Mets game was the perfect trap for the Braves chasers. I was very interested in this game, and picked the Mets in a pick'em thing I do for fun. But I didn't lay the first unit on this game. Sunday night always reeks of trap.

Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:

straight games:  they're straight alright.
trap games: nonsense

Quote Originally Posted by tahrir2011:

Quote Originally Posted by ScreaminPain:

The surrest way to identify a so-called "trap line" is to create your own line.....

compare the two and bet when there is +EV

....pretty simple, actually

  

Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

How dare you bring logic into this thread.  

Really, people, if there was anything to this, someone would have invented a way to exploit a LONG time ago.  Seen many, many "fade the public" losers come and go on this forum.  None of them ever stick around long because it just doesn't work.  

When will people ever come to terms that there are no short cuts.  

Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

One other thing..if it's going to be a game that draws heavy action, like a nationally televised Sunday night game, and the line looks too easy, go the opposite way.