How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game?

This is the truest statement you can make.  Once you accept that they know VOLUMES more than we ever could, you can also accept that they'll know which way the public will bet based on a line they put out there.  They weren't surprised the public was all over Atlanta and they weren't surprised when the Mets won and they raked it in.  And the ones the public get right?  They knew they were going to pay out on it before the game ever started.  They aren't right 100% of the time, but I bet they are close to 80%...

On a day like this where there are several games all going off at once, you'll see some easy picks cashing in.  The action is spread all over the place and they can afford to pay out a little here and a little there.  I expect a lot of favorites to do well today...Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, Yankees, Angels, Detroit  etc  You'll notice we're paying a premium for the easy picks though.  They'll recoup a lot of it when the Blue Jays upset the Chi Sox again and the under hits in Baltimore.

Pasteur, good find with the total in the Sox game tonight.

This is how I see it when there are heavy one sided public plays.

85% of the public is pounding the O in the Sox Orioles game tonight but it has not budged from 8.5.

This would lead me to believe that there is sharp money coming in on the U.

 The public is hammering the over with over 90% of the action on it, and the line is holding steady at 8.5

Well said, hutch and I agree with you.

To each their own, but these kinds of threads really boggle my mind.

Nobody knows who is going to win any of these games.......period. Look I've bet the public side and I've bet the "sharp" side......I've won and lost on both. It doesn't matter.

 

 

Trap lines do not exist.

Misinformed public perception leads to a belief that linesmakers, who have zero control over the actual outcome of games, intentionally set lines to ensnare casual bettors.

And the ones the public get right?  They knew they were going to pay out on it before the game ever started.

Heres a good one.

90% of public pounding the O in the Mariners Rays game tonight.

The line has moved from 6.5 to 7.

Is this a gift?

Hutch, there are plenty of websites that give public action. I use pregame.com.

88% of public taking the U in the Royals A's game.

Line has moved from 9 to 8.5.

Is this a gift?

Back in 2010, New England was -3.5 at home against the Jets.  They won by 42.  Next game, they were -3 at Chicago and won by 29.  2 weeks later they were -7 at Buffalo and won by 31.

Okay, so what does it mean to you if 85% of public is betting the O in the Red Sox Orioles game but the line has stayed at 8.5?

What does it mean to you if 90% of public is taking the O in the Mariners Rays game and the line moves from 6.5 to 7?

Whether or not lines move with certain percentages on each sides can prove something and it can indeed be interpreted.

I would like to think I have a pretty solid understanding of these numbers.

This... couldn't have said it any better.

Fellas, it's all perception. Trap lines don't exist, it's just people thinking "oh, this line looks too low... trap!" When really the line is spot on."

I do my line projections every day WITHOUT REGARD TO BIAS OR PERCEPTION. And I come relatively close to many of the actual lines.

I did my projection for the Sheets/Niese game on Sunday that everyone thought was a trap. You can go back and check, I had it ATL -110 which is where it closed. IT WAS NOT A TRAP. It was an accurate line everyone thought was a trap because of their perception of the two teams and two pitchers at hand.

I'm honestly shaking my head at some of the stuff being said in this thread. Unbelievable.

This thread is disturbing to me..........I just can't believe how people think.......there is good advise on this site if you just look......unfortunately you have to put forth effort and energy to squeak out small profits......everybody wants to get rich quick and it just doesn't happen....

simbeck.....your examples of line moves did not illustrate the point you were trying to make....

Of course they have zero control over the actual outcome.  What they do have control over is prediction of outcome.  A good capper can predict what, 60-65% correctly?  A good capper has a fraction of the resources available to them that the odds makers have.  They hire the best statisticians, psychologists,  and field researchers money can buy.  They  have access to pro teams that we can only dream about.  They have complex algorithms written by the brightest nerds in the world and have all the right information to populate the algorithms. 

A good capper can predict game outcomes 60-65%.  I'm willing to bet the oddsmakers can predict outcomes at a rate of 80%+.  Once you can predict outcomes at a rate this high you can set lines to induce action on the other side of what your model predicts, and make a killing at it. 

In a way Tone is absolutely right, but what he doesn't realize is he just sees through the ruse.  It's not a trap to him because he wasn't fooled by the lines.  But a large population of the gambling public isn't informed enough to see through it and fall prey to the "easy picks" that go wrong.  What's fair line value to some is a trap to others.

Point spreads aren't just a Vegas attempt at guessing what the final margin of victory will be.   

From what I wrote I would hope one would be able to interpret the idea I am trying to get across. 

All I am saying is with public betting percentages and line movements one has the ability to possibly identify what side sharp money is coming in on. Is it always accurate? No. The examples I gave were legitimate questions. Those two totals that moved. Are they gifts? Public is pounding one side and in two of the mentioned cases the total line has moved half a run.

One would always expect a line to move when one side is being pounded.

The Red Sox Orioles game is a red flag example.

Because 85% of the public is taking the O and the line has not moved like it has in the previous two examples it can be argued that sharp money is taking the U and fading the public. This has caused the line to stay at 8.5 instead of moving like the other two totals mentioned.

Didn't think I would need to articulate my point but hope that clarifies for people.

Obviously sharp money does not win 100% of the time.

I think the U in the Orioles Red Sox game tonight is a legitimate play IMO.

Looking at these numbers can be useful but don't JUST look at those numbers.  If you look at them in a vacuum you're going to get yourself killed.  Take it a step further and ask which game is going to have the most people lining up at the window to bet?  If it's a game nobody cares about then those numbers won't mean much.

Last night the public was overwhelmingly on the Rays..like 95%.  And the Rays won.  You know why Vegas is content to pay out on the Rays?  Because sitting right next to it was another 10pm game between the Angels and the Indians that sportsbooks raped on.  Which game do you think attracted more betting action?  

Pasteur.........you said the oddsmakers can predict outcomes at a rate of 80%

dude are you fuckin NUTS. you just lost all credability with that outlandish statement. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. The more you say, the more foolish you look !!

Here is how it works..... vegas is NOT into gambling, think seriously about what I just said. VEGAS IS NOT INTO GAMBLING. They want equal action on both sides.......they NEVER, I repeat NEVER want to be exposed too heavily on one side or the other of a game. They put out a line that attracts equal play on both sides, plain and simple.

That is how it works........TRUST ME...I KNOW !!

Thats the key and its what most bettors dont understand. Its about the size of the $ and not the just the percentages.

lmaooo vegas wants equal action, lemme guess you believe in the tooth fairy as well.