I wont come back to ride him if it loses, and I wont be here to congratulate him if it wins.
This game is totally insignificant. As he states - even if he is right - he has a 52% chance of winning. So I should congratulate him for winning a single coinflip? No thanks - and I wont be on him if it loses either.
If he flipped that coin 1000 times and had a winning percentage, athat deserves applause - but winning one game? Please. He has already shown he has no concept of what value even means - I highly doubt "his numbers" are anything more than a thought in his head.
And that, in a nutshell - regardless of whether the twins win tonight or not (has nothing to do with anything) - is why you should never ever ever listen to anyone on covers without asking a few simple questions.
He states that the reason he is betting the "biggest wager of his life" is because he has this line 38 cents off - but has no idea how to turn that in to a percentage or EV.
This - is exactly why people lose. They dont take 10 minutes to learn or understand math - they trust their instincts - which are most often wrong (not about this particular pick, just in general).
I am not questioning your math here...because you are right, I was just confused at first when you posted the precents...but either way...8% is a huge difference...you show me a time where you have piles of information and that infomation gives you that big of a difference...I understand 8% doesnt seem that big, but in all reality, it is.
I wont come back to ride him if it loses, and I wont be here to congratulate him if it wins.
This game is totally insignificant. As he states - even if he is right - he has a 52% chance of winning. So I should congratulate him for winning a single coinflip? No thanks - and I wont be on him if it loses either.
If he flipped that coin 1000 times and had a winning percentage, athat deserves applause - but winning one game? Please. He has already shown he has no concept of what value even means - I highly doubt "his numbers" are anything more than a thought in his head.
WOW...who really gives a fuck bout all that. Maybe just you big guy..your impressed with your brillance..
I wont come back to ride him if it loses, and I wont be here to congratulate him if it wins.
This game is totally insignificant. As he states - even if he is right - he has a 52% chance of winning. So I should congratulate him for winning a single coinflip? No thanks - and I wont be on him if it loses either.
If he flipped that coin 1000 times and had a winning percentage, athat deserves applause - but winning one game? Please. He has already shown he has no concept of what value even means - I highly doubt "his numbers" are anything more than a thought in his head.
The value is still good...if a dog of +126 wins 52 out of 100 times you bet that game you are going to make bank...so a 8% difference is huge if you continue to bet those plays and bet the same amount...
The value is still good...if a dog of +126 wins 52 out of 100 times you bet that game you are going to make bank...so a 8% difference is huge if you continue to bet those plays and bet the same amount...
The point is not that you have identified a 8% value - I am not minimizing that - that is the good part.
The part that is not the good part - is that you are placing the "biggest bet of your career". If you have an 8% edge, you need to identify those and bet accordingly - over the long haul - and not bet huge on one of those.
GL tonight though.
The point is not that you have identified a 8% value - I am not minimizing that - that is the good part.
The part that is not the good part - is that you are placing the "biggest bet of your career". If you have an 8% edge, you need to identify those and bet accordingly - over the long haul - and not bet huge on one of those.
GL tonight though.
Yes, and I totally understand that, and I have bet a large amount of plays with this same type of value this year and have done very well...very well, buts that irrelevant...the reason I made it my biggest play was because I follow this Twins team inside and out and even before I ran my numbers and did the researchand came up with the numbers, I really had a strong indication that this would be a great spot for them tonight.
Thanks Crash and I hope that your plays go great tonight
I dont like anyone. Im not betting MLB for the rest of the season.
My issue is not with his pick. I could care less about the pick. I got involved when he said it was the biggest bet of his career - an easy winner - and then said why. The why part of his answer didnt make sense mathematically - and I am pointing it out to spark a discussion on the concept - NOT THE PICK!!
I hope the twins win 20-0 tonight.
You obviously dont, which might explain why you lose at gambling and have no idea why.
Vanzack, how do you know that he is losing at gambling? I have a friend that can't add one plus one together, but can make an absolute killing in football every year. Just because you are a so-called "math-guru" and you apparently make a killing off discrepancies in odds, does not mean that other people cannot be successful at gambling using different approaches.
Vanzack, how do you know that he is losing at gambling? I have a friend that can't add one plus one together, but can make an absolute killing in football every year. Just because you are a so-called "math-guru" and you apparently make a killing off discrepancies in odds, does not mean that other people cannot be successful at gambling using different approaches.
You are right.
Oh - and by the way - I know a guy who smoked all his life and is 96 years old and never got cancer. And I also know a guy who fucks person every day with no protection - and has never had an STD!
Personal anecdotal evidence does not beat out statistics. I would give you 10-1 he loses, and I would give 100-1 you dont have a friend who wins - or even better a friend period.
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