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Here it is...my BIGGEST Play of my career...your easy winner...

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by ManassaMauler:


inside connections? 

i'm laughing right along with you...but thats the Twins lineup, and its out there for you to see 2-3 hours before you will ever find it on espn or yahoo...

 
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Posted: #77
Best of luck to all...........

I had a choice (minn) before I read this all  but now I'm convinced it's a "no-play stay away" situation. Sometimes my best bets are the ones I don't make.....LOL....cuz I really am not that smart or lucky....

enjoy the game,
mild
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

So you are putting your "biggest play of your career" on a line that is 30 cents off in your opinion?
 
Oh jeez.
 

38 cents off

 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by mild:

Best of luck to all...........

I had a choice (minn) before I read this all  but now I'm convinced it's a "no-play stay away" situation. Sometimes my best bets are the ones I don't make.....LOL....cuz I really am not that smart or lucky....

enjoy the game,
mild

Hey there you go...BOL

 
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Posted: #80
MrHeadache... cheers bro and gL
 
Had Minny on the card early this morning but scratched it.  I am on the under...I am assuming you like it as well.
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by MrHeadache:

38 cents off

In terms of percentages, at +128 you are at about a 44% shot, and at -110 you are about a 52% shot.

Your biggest bet of your career is being made because you increased your expected winning percentage by 8%???

Please.  Very bad strategy.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #82
"Sometimes my best bets are the ones I don't make"...
 
How true...
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by JMon:

MrHeadache... cheers bro and gL
 
Had Minny on the card early this morning but scratched it.  I am on the under...I am assuming you like it as well.

Good to see you again Jmon...you know I really dont like the Totals too much in the MLB...the under looks like the play in that one...I loved the over in the first game of the series and that went well, but just havent had a strong indication for tonight or last night's over/under....bol on your plays

 
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Posted: #84
MR HEADACHE I THINK YOU HAVE A WINNER....NOT TAILING YOU AS I HAVE BIG PLAYS ON DET RL, ATL, COL, BUT I MAY DO A RR WITH THE TWINS PLAY A 4 TEAM RR WILL PAY SOME NICE DOUGH IF ALL 4 WIN.....WAS LOOKING FOR A DOG TO PLAY AND THIS ONE MAKES TOTAL SINCE TO ME...BOL...I THINK YOU LAST BIG PLAY LIKE THIS WAS IN BB AND I DO BELIEVE IT WON....
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

In terms of percentages, at +128 you are at about a 44% shot, and at -110 you are about a 52% shot.

Your biggest bet of your career is being made because you increased your expected winning percentage by 8%???

Please.  Very bad strategy.

 where are you getting your 44% and 52% stuff from?

 
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Posted: #86
i love minny tonight
 
all minny hitters kill millwood and baker last start in tx he dominated and is looking for his 5th str8 win
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by BOUNTYHOUNTER:

MR HEADACHE I THINK YOU HAVE A WINNER....NOT TAILING YOU AS I HAVE BIG PLAYS ON DET RL, ATL, COL, BUT I MAY DO A RR WITH THE TWINS PLAY A 4 TEAM RR WILL PAY SOME NICE DOUGH IF ALL 4 WIN.....WAS LOOKING FOR A DOG TO PLAY AND THIS ONE MAKES TOTAL SINCE TO ME...BOL...I THINK YOU LAST BIG PLAY LIKE THIS WAS IN BB AND I DO BELIEVE IT WON....

good to hear from you bountyhunter...and best of luck on your games tonight and your parlay if you decide to go with it...

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by payne034:

i love minny tonight
 
all minny hitters kill millwood and baker last start in tx he dominated and is looking for his 5th str8 win

Good to hear from you payne...BOL as we are both on the same sides here tonight

 
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Posted: #89
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by MrHeadache:

Other plays I like tonight:
 
San Francisco +110
Oakland +125
St. Louis +125

Going to have a smaller play on the Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs at +188

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by MrHeadache:

 where are you getting your 44% and 52% stuff from?

From mathematics.

+128 = 1/2.28 = 44%

-110 = 1.1/2.1 = 52%

Math doesnt lie.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by MrHeadache:

 where are you getting your 44% and 52% stuff from?

Don't question...just accept. He's a guru.

 
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Posted: #93
IT WILL BE FUNNY TO SEE IF THE TWINS WIN, HOW MANY OF THE HATERS WILL COME BACK AND GIVE YOU SOME LOVE...LOL....THERE ARE ALOT OF PEOPLE WHO HATE IN THESE FORMS BUT DON'T HAVE THE BALLS TO COME BACK AND SAY NICE CALL....
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by BOUNTYHOUNTER:

IT WILL BE FUNNY TO SEE IF THE TWINS WIN, HOW MANY OF THE HATERS WILL COME BACK AND GIVE YOU SOME LOVE...LOL....THERE ARE ALOT OF PEOPLE WHO HATE IN THESE FORMS BUT DON'T HAVE THE BALLS TO COME BACK AND SAY NICE CALL....

Oh trust me...I hear you...I have done it many times and I have seen some guys come back and say good job, but most just hide their tails between their legs...I will be back if they lose though...you know...

 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

From mathematics.

+128 = 1/2.28 = 44%

-110 = 1.1/2.1 = 52%

Math doesnt lie.



Van,

He doesn't even get what you are saying...
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

From mathematics.

+128 = 1/2.28 = 44%

-110 = 1.1/2.1 = 52%

Math doesnt lie.

if thats how you try and come up with winners good luck to you.

 
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Posted: #97
....but if he loses will he come back and say it was a bad pick??
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I have a headache.

mr headache

 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

In terms of percentages, at +128 you are at about a 44% shot, and at -110 you are about a 52% shot.

Your biggest bet of your career is being made because you increased your expected winning percentage by 8%???

Please.  Very bad strategy.

I see what you are saying, but 8% is not bad...its probably not the biggest winning percantage increase of my career, but thats not all that matters here...if it was that easy we would all be rich

 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by MrHeadache:

if thats how you try and come up with winners good luck to you.

And that, in a nutshell - regardless of whether the twins win tonight or not (has nothing to do with anything) - is why you should never ever ever listen to anyone on covers without asking a few simple questions.

He states that the reason he is betting the "biggest wager of his life" is because he has this line 38 cents off - but has no idea how to turn that in to a percentage or EV.

This - is exactly why people lose.  They dont take 10 minutes to learn or understand math - they trust their instincts - which are most often wrong (not about this particular pick, just in general).

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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