Posted:
#26
@QBUN
Do You Want to See a Dead Body?
Posted:
#37
@LVTruck
Have you ever noticed that whenever you bet on a team that 70% of the public is also trying to fingerbang, you just end up with some very expensive toilet paper that just doesn’t rub you the right way and you’re left trying to figure out what you did wrong?
They’re called ‘over-valued’ or ‘over-inflated’ pieces of turd just like Billy’s sister. They’re just not worth the money nor the trouble.
I have my finger pointed at Seattle Moneymakers tonight. Only 30% of the turds are on them tonight. 70%+ plus on Arizona. Who do you think is gonna pay the light bill tonight? Hint: it’s always the turds in the end.
Posted:
#49
I went back through this matchup from every angle and stress tested the fk out of it. Arizona has been one of baseball’s best offenses against left handed pitching, especially at home, while Cincinnati has struggled against lefties and has been one of the weaker road offenses in baseball.
Nick Lodolo comes in with a 4.52 ERA, but the numbers underneath it are actually worse. His expected ERA is considerably higher, his FIP is over 5, and his sinker has been getting hit extremely hard. Arizona has also built tonight’s lineup heavily from the right side to attack him.
Eduardo Rodriguez has some regression underneath his 2.71 ERA, so I’m not just blindly buying the surface number. But his overall contact profile is still stronger than Lodolo’s, and his four-seam/changeup combination matches up well with most of Cincinnati’s lineup.
The first five gives me the starting-pitching matchup I want at even money. The full game gives me another path because Cincinnati’s bullpen has been one of the weaker groups in baseball, while Arizona has been rock solid at home and is playing meaningful baseball in the Wild Card race.
I went through the lineups, splits, expected numbers, pitch profiles, recent form, home/road numbers and bullpen matchup. Everything kept bringing me back to Arizona
I have no idea what the fuck‘s gonna happen but I need Arizona like fucking oxygen
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