Posted:
#126
Sorry if I wasn't clear, when I say 'spread' I mean abs(spread). Porky came up with this idea of betting toward what the 2H spread *should be* vs what it actually is.
Don't have a great example for today but see if this makes sense:
Eg: jets -3 Indy
(21-6) -3= 12. So to get back to the Jets winning by 3, the 2nd have line should be Indy -12, instead it was pick em. So adding 0 to our equation, you get 12. I personally don't play that b/c it hits about 58% of the time in pros, porky would take it b/c his number is usually 10.
Interesting analysis shows the bet appearing to be counter productive.... I.e. the worse line you get, the better propensity to take the bet. But I believe the theory is that if Vegas is confident enough to place that much disparity from its opening line, then that team warrants a wager to cover it.
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