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Bodio's MLB Wed 08/31

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by RJ89:

Hey Bodio, are you going to do an NFL Preview/ Writeup this year?


Yes I am buddy.  Sorry for the delay.
It's taking me a bit longer than I expected. 
Should be posted by this Monday at the latest.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by POTUS:

Bodio- Just wondering if late SF line up change effect your call here at all? 

nope
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by luckyme73:

any evening games picks

no.. this is it.  Had a couple of 'leans' but didn't like any of them enough to play.  
 
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Posted: #54
Hey bodio its a ritual for me to check your plays and leans and advice everyday to help make decisions on my plays for the day, and i think everyone in here is thankful for the work you put in. I was going to ask you about my plays and as your opinion :

              Cleveland -125
              Milwaukee-135
              Arizona- 145
              Phillies-170               all plays are to win 300
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Posted: #55
CLE -- I see the juice dropped on the Indians from the opening # and rightfully so.  Harden is a strike-out pitcher and against this depleted Indians' lineup he should have success.  This one is 50/50 IMO and I can't back A's again on the road after they lost yesterday.

MIL -- according to advanced stats Wolf is a very mediocre pitcher.  Westbrook is ranked as a better pitcher and St. Louis has the offense to still be dangerous at any time.  Again, this one is way too juiced up and I see no 'value' on backing the home team.  Can't fade them either though.

ARZ -- It opened at -160 and now it's -145?  Hmm.  Rogers is garbage and the Snakes are hot.  Bit series against the G-men coming up though.  I like Arizona here but not at these odds.

PHI -- the problem here is that Willis is a lefty and Phillies offense is pretty mediocre against lefties.  Cincy on the other hand is the 2nd best offense against left-handers and they'll be facing one in Lee.  Just another game that was best to pass on from my perspective.

In conclusion, I'd pass on all of these but I hope you hit them all if you decide to play! 

 
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Posted: #56
Bum-G looks sharp fellas!  Good sign! 
 
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Posted: #57

Ok Bodio, fuck baseball its gay.   Lets get the real sport.  I say sport because there is only one all the rest are not even close to the same level.

What are the key stats, rankings, previous matchups, whatever it may be that you find are most useful in handicapping the NFL?   What websites do you use or can you suggest that is going to help me actual do some capping myself this year.  I did pretty damn good last year with zero money management and no capping and going 100% based off gut and just watching the games.  I mean I record and watch as much football as I can.  I know the game.  But with you bringing me to the light of what being a successful sports inverstor is being all about I really think I can make it with the NFL and would greatly appreciate some of your views and theories of investing in the NFL.  Thank you once again.  You are the fucking man and I am ready for some FOOTBALL!!!

 
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Posted: #58
Yeesh the G-Men lineup today is ugly kinda shocked to see you laying the vig on them buddy..........................and kinda bummed I'm on the other side
 
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Posted: #59
Thank you Bodio for actually replying to my post I am a little worried today because I locked them in already and I should have checked out your opinions first but hopefully the games pull through and win. Good luck on your Giants pick i hope they pull through for you I hate the cubs they usually lose unless i bet against them
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Posted: #60
GL B 
 
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Posted: #61
GL
 
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Posted: #62
Good Luck Bodio , I got scared of the high juice so I parlay it with the under , hope Giants hit for you
 
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Posted: #63

i just missed your play....gl to your GIANT today  Bodio

 

 
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Posted: #64
Nice call Bodio...BOL
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Ok Bodio, fuck baseball its gay.   Lets get the real sport.  I say sport because there is only one all the rest are not even close to the same level.

What are the key stats, rankings, previous matchups, whatever it may be that you find are most useful in handicapping the NFL?   What websites do you use or can you suggest that is going to help me actual do some capping myself this year.  I did pretty damn good last year with zero money management and no capping and going 100% based off gut and just watching the games.  I mean I record and watch as much football as I can.  I know the game.  But with you bringing me to the light of what being a successful sports inverstor is being all about I really think I can make it with the NFL and would greatly appreciate some of your views and theories of investing in the NFL.  Thank you once again.  You are the fucking man and I am ready for some FOOTBALL!!!


In all honesty, if you're doing well by watching games and going on gut-feel, than you should probably keep doing so.  You shouldn't change things up if you're making money. 

When it comes to football it's important to break things down to a unit where you can compare one team with another:  Yards per Point, Yards per pass attempt, yards per rush, etc. are all very valuable.  Motivational angles are important just as revenge, since football is a very emotional game.  At the same time travel, weather, and of course one-on-one matchups are key to breakdown.  I would suggest reading websites like footballoutsiders, advancednflstats, and pro-football-reference.  That should get you started.  Watching games is definitely important but remember NOT to over-react to one week!  
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by jgjtrapboss:

Thank you Bodio for actually replying to my post I am a little worried today because I locked them in already and I should have checked out your opinions first but hopefully the games pull through and win. Good luck on your Giants pick i hope they pull through for you I hate the cubs they usually lose unless i bet against them

You'll need to go 3-1 on those games to show a profit.  I hope you hit buddy! 
 
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Posted: #67
reading your wins of losses--what does the p stand for--MLBPor NFLP.  i'M NEW AT THIS AND JUST CURIOUS.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by vwinston:

reading your wins of losses--what does the p stand for--MLBPor NFLP.  i'M NEW AT THIS AND JUST CURIOUS.

P = Playoffs 
 
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Posted: #69

Hey Bodio --

Been following you, among a few MLB handicappers, and I'll be reading your analysis on thr NFL as well. Just wondering, you seem like you know these baords pretty well, any NFL or NCAA FB cappers to follow/read on these boards other than yourself.

 

thanks,

also, tailed your sf pick today -- thanks as always

 
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Posted: #70
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Monk2334:

Hey Bodio --

Been following you, among a few MLB handicappers, and I'll be reading your analysis on thr NFL as well. Just wondering, you seem like you know these baords pretty well, any NFL or NCAA FB cappers to follow/read on these boards other than yourself.

 

thanks,

also, tailed your sf pick today -- thanks as always


No idea buddy.  I don't really have a lot of time to read many threads etc on these sports boards so I truly have no idea. 

I would follow someone that posts their long-term records and provides solid analysis in their write-ups.  That's the kind of handicappers that I tend to read and pay attention to.  

I enjoy reading mtBaker's stuff during the NBA season, but not sure if he does football.  
Also Si1ly's breakdowns are very good.
Both of these guys have solid records in those sports this year but I don't know their long-term records.

I might be missing a couple of others.  As for football, I really have no idea.  Once I see someone with solid long-term records and good analysis behind their plays I'll let you know 

Good luck
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


No idea buddy.  I don't really have a lot of time to read many threads etc on these sports boards so I truly have no idea. 

I would follow someone that posts their long-term records and provides solid analysis in their write-ups.  That's the kind of handicappers that I tend to read and pay attention to.  

I enjoy reading mtBaker's stuff during the NBA season, but not sure if he does football.  
Also Si1ly's breakdowns are very good.
Both of these guys have solid records in those sports this year but I don't know their long-term records.

I might be missing a couple of others.  As for football, I really have no idea.  Once I see someone with solid long-term records and good analysis behind their plays I'll let you know 

Good luck

Just to clarify, Si1ly's write-ups that I enjoy reading are for for baseball. I dont know if he does football.
Just ask him yourself. 
 
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Posted: #74
Hey Bodio, great call on the Giants so far.  Bumgarner looks great.  Thinking about betting the Braves tonight.  Saw it was one of your leans so would love to hear a bit more analysis if you have the time?

Thanks and BOL!
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by jellsbury:

Hey Bodio, great call on the Giants so far.  Bumgarner looks great.  Thinking about betting the Braves tonight.  Saw it was one of your leans so would love to hear a bit more analysis if you have the time?

Thanks and BOL!

The model sure does like that game, but I don't.  Lowe got rocked by the Nats hitters the last couple of times and Lanna is pitching pretty well, especially against ATL this year.  He's 3-0 against them.  Atlanta is the 3rd worst offensive team against lefties this season!  I wanted to back the UNDER here, but Lowe's form against Nats made this one a 'no play'.  I would NOT back the Braves in this one.  Pass...
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