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Bodio's MLB Wed 08/31

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Posted: #26
I'm tailing.  Thanks Bodio!
 
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Posted: #27
Take Giants -1.5, no juice, risk, yes but you are up $, one time shot.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

Any reason you passed on the Red sox and the Rays???

Red Sox are way too juiced up...not worth against the Bombers

Rays never faced Ogando before and he's a tough pitcher to get a handle on.  Plus Rays O is not very good against righties.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by HN4Life:

Bodio you going to be playing any CFB tomorrow?

Probably not.  Just like college basketball, I like to wait a couple of weeks in college football prior to using my models to analyze the matchups.  I'm going to be very selective in College Football this year.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Probably not.  Just like college basketball, I like to wait a couple of weeks in college football prior to using my models to analyze the matchups.  I'm going to be very selective in College Football this year.

Bodio thanx for the reply. In this for the long run not just for the action so much appreciated.
 
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Posted: #31

My first year of betting MLB and I only make small wagers as I am still learning quite a bit, but I have tripled my money.  I really enjoy reading your write-ups each day before making my picks.  You are very generous with your time, energy and insight.  Thank you kindly for your efforts!

Can't say I am feeling the Midgets today though.  Have been fading them regularly since the break.  They are woefully painful to watch.  Best of luck to you though!

 
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Posted: #32
I think getting  Beltran back and after  a few games   will help  this  team. 
 
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Posted: #33
Congrats on your nice run Bo.  GL today. 
 
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Posted: #34

Hey Bodio, are you going to do an NFL Preview/ Writeup this year?

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by archdriver:

Great pick... (hopefully) on the Giants.  I played  them  already and  was happy  to  see your  pick.  

 

Yesterday,  I  hit on 2-3 of  your  picks

Nice  write ups.   do  you think  we  are  getting to the  stage ib the  season where some  teams are  not  as  interested  in  winning  as  they  are protecting   their pitchers  for  next  year and playing younger  guys  to  see  what they  have?

 


Absolutely.  That's why the # of playable games drops.  
I know I played 4 games yesterday, but for the most part till the end of the MLB regular season it's best to be very selective.  Too many variables and too many 'question marks' in the equation now  :)
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Red Sox are way too juiced up...not worth against the Bombers

Rays never faced Ogando before and he's a tough pitcher to get a handle on.  Plus Rays O is not very good against righties.

Sounds good to me. Just took the under 8.5 in Rays/Rangers. 
 
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Posted: #37
sf
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

Even with the better pitcher, I don't see how the Giants put up the runs to win. Lopez is really not all that bad. He's been destroyed by the Cardinals, and had a rough outing against the Pirates a month ago, but he's also shown some good stuff in most of his outings. Against a team that's hitting as poorly as the Giants, I see him going 6 innings of 1 or 2 run ball. I think the Cubs are hot enough right now to get at least that many off of Bumgarner. I see this one as closer to a coin flip, and am happy to take the odds. 

BOL though. I've already made plenty backing the Cubs against the Giants.

hehe...alright we shall see. 
I don't think Lopez is even an average pitcher.  He's horrible and his advanced stats prove that.  I expect the G-men to blow him up today!  :)
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

With so many games on the board, how do you weed out games?  I'm sure there will always be a day when you like more than 1-4 games?

Do you go by some ranking system?

My model weeds them out for me.  
It selects the strongest leans and I handicap those extra carefully. 
I still handicap all the games but the ones that aren't strong-leans don't get as much attention.  That's why you'll see me rarely playing a game that wasn't an initial lean...sometimes I do though...
 
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Posted: #40
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by CMo256:

Hey Bodio, do you bet to win 1 unit, or always just bet 1 unit? 

to win 1 unit if it's a favorite
or if it's a dog bet 1 unit
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by cm123:

Hey bodio

thanks for the picks I have been following you to the promise land latley

im kinda fading it today tho, i seen more value in the cubs at +1.5 runs for -145 as i see it being a pretty close game, i dont think sanfran has th batts to blow this open, if they do win they win by a run

just wondering u see this as a close game or what?

thanks boss hope we both get paid


My model has a 1.6 run variance for this game...that's the largest variance on the board today.  No other game has even a 1-run variance.  I like San Fran to kick some ass today!  :)
 
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Posted: #43
Bodio- Just wondering if late SF line up change effect your call here at all? 
 
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Posted: #44
love s.f tonight
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:

Tks for the analysis Bodio. Damn thats a lot of juice to be laying on a team that's struggling offensively. I'm more tempted to take the under (although I dont like the ttl at 7). You've sold me on yur analysis...but I'm still hesitant to pull the trigger. I like the Rays pitching advantage tonight

Wells threw a game of his life 2 days ago and Garza is a top-20 pitcher.  Most offenses would struggle against Garza and not sure where Wells pulled that shit from.  I don't think we'll see the same result tonight.  But we shall see.  20 minutes till gametime -- I might actually watch this one  :)
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

It doesn't matter if Cub pitching sucks.  Giants can't hit against anyone. I bet Huntington Beach's best little league pitcher could keep SF scoreless.

-170 odds for the Giants really ignores how bad their hitting has been.

But GL, bodio.  And while I disagree, thanks for taking the time to do the write-up.  

 


Pitching is more important than hitting.  If pitching sux, hitting will come around :)
 
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Posted: #47
any evening games picks
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by HN4Life:


Bodio thanx for the reply. In this for the long run not just for the action so much appreciated.

Couldn't have said it better myself.  
Long-term is all that matters...

I use 'small action wagers' for action when I need some, which are pretty irrelevant in the long scheme of things.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

My first year of betting MLB and I only make small wagers as I am still learning quite a bit, but I have tripled my money.  I really enjoy reading your write-ups each day before making my picks.  You are very generous with your time, energy and insight.  Thank you kindly for your efforts!

Can't say I am feeling the Midgets today though.  Have been fading them regularly since the break.  They are woefully painful to watch.  Best of luck to you though!


Small wagers but you tripled your BR?  wow..that's awesome.  IIf you are betting a 'risky' percentage of your BR on each wager though be careful.  I'd suggest anything between 2-3% max
 
 
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Posted: #50

For all the  love some people are  showing the  cubs,  let them remember that the  cubs have only  won27 games on the  road this  year and are sharing the  cellar with a handful of  other  teams.  they are  also  3-7 in the last  10 games.  ... and  for the  most  part suck.

the  giants  still have decent  pitching, relief and closer.  hitting is  the  one thing that  comes  in streaks.  hell,  the  cubs  can  hit but they  dont  win  many  ballgames.

Giants  still have a decent  opportunity to make the  playoffs.  Only 5-6  games  behind Arizona.

 

all that  being  said,  i  will  be  the  first  to  pay off my losing  bet if the  cubs  win.

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