Bob's MLB Saturday *** 4.29.17 ***

Bol BoB and Thanks for posting a day in advanced

What ya think about Texas today with Darvish against Chavez

The home team on the -1.5, 9 inning run line will be an unending argument. All I know is that I never have to hope, pray, stroke my lucky rabbit's foot, or keep my fingers crossed that the visitor (the team I am trying to beat) scores at least 1 in the top of the ninth to tie the game so that I have the slim possibility of beating the run line on a walk off homer with at 1 man on base.

This is the exactly right. The back end of the bullpen and the opponent play a big role in determining whether I feel comfortable playing the RL on a home team.

I cap expected run totals and create probability distribution functions (PDF/CDF) for runs to back into odds... both for run total lines and sides. If I see a mismatch in implied probability of winning by > 1 that doesn't exist for the ML, then the RL is playable.

Good luck all!

everytime i check your thread bob, i see you take rl on home team and lose

Managers trade runs for outs in the last two innings; it's part of baseball strategy and occurs fairly often. Managers don't give a chit if they win by 2, they just want the W. Bottom line is you're not gonna make money over the long haul betting a -1.5 RL. Just look at where the red is in BOBs ROR and he's as a capper posting on here.

That did not do BoB any good. 5 inning winner, FG loser.

By the way, for the record, BarneysDad is all bu77 hurt because I told him "no one cares about his play" in another thread. He just kept writing "Nationals RL or no play". Of course, the Mets won out right.