Bob's MLB Saturday *** 4.29.17 ***

Question

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MLB 2017
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Summary
Record: 39-39-2 (50%)
Beginning Bankroll: $10,000
Avg. Wager Size: $97.38 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: -$68.45 (-0.68 Units), -0.88% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 24-23 (51%), +1.14% Return on Risk
RL: 4-9-0 (31%), -34.94% Return on Risk
O/U: 11-7-2 (61%), +16.57% Return on Risk

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Performance History
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Overall
2017: 39-39-2 (50%), -0.88% Return on Risk
2016: 259-224-20 (54%), +3.80% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2017: 16-12-0 (57%), +9.41% Return on Risk
2016: 81-65-7 (55%), +6.90% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Friday
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3-3, +$30.36

7 positive days in a row! Thank you, Yankees. Booo Cubs!

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Saturday
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Baltimore/New York Over 8.5 -120, Jimenez/Pineda

Cleveland Indians -1.5 +115, Gallardo/Salazar

Tampa Bay Rays +114, Andriese/Liriano

Houston Astros -1.5 +135, Triggs/Musgrove

Runlines have been mine nemisis so far this year, but I it's time to turn that around.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

-----------------------------------------------------------
MLB 2017
-----------------------------------------------------------

Summary
Record: 39-39-2 (50%)
Beginning Bankroll: $10,000
Avg. Wager Size: $97.38 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: -$68.45 (-0.68 Units), -0.88% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 24-23 (51%), +1.14% Return on Risk
RL: 4-9-0 (31%), -34.94% Return on Risk
O/U: 11-7-2 (61%), +16.57% Return on Risk

-----------------------------------------------------------
Performance History
-----------------------------------------------------------

Overall
2017: 39-39-2 (50%), -0.88% Return on Risk
2016: 259-224-20 (54%), +3.80% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2017: 16-12-0 (57%), +9.41% Return on Risk
2016: 81-65-7 (55%), +6.90% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

-----------------------------------------------------------
Friday
-----------------------------------------------------------
3-3, +$30.36

7 positive days in a row! Thank you, Yankees. Booo Cubs!

-----------------------------------------------------------
Saturday
-----------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore/New York Over 8.5 -120, Jimenez/Pineda

Cleveland Indians -1.5 +115, Gallardo/Salazar

Tampa Bay Rays +114, Andriese/Liriano

Houston Astros -1.5 +135, Triggs/Musgrove

Runlines have been mine nemisis so far this year, but I it's time to turn that around.

Wizz_KIDD35 · Answer

Turn it around Friend

RebelTell2 · Answer

I&#x27;m with you on Tampa; home team RLs are like flushing cash down the toilet for me...learned to leave them alone.BOL,RT2

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Not when the odds are in your favor.

JuiceBook · Answer

Why are hometeam runlines bad?

KC_4_LIFE · Answer

Not guaranteed all 27 outs at the plate.

Digitalkarma · Answer

liking the Over as well. it is 9 at my book for -110. could easily see a couple of 2 run blasts between Ubaldo and Pineda. probably wont be another 11-14 game but maybe a 7-5 score in the teensGL BoB

Learnersrealm · Answer

Nicely done this week Bob. Good luck today.

BigBoiHarris · Answer

Bob. I thought you bet twice the amount on the red plays?

cjm2008 · Answer

You may only get 8 inning at the plate.

cjm2008 · Answer

With you on the Rays . GL BOB

MurderMachine · Answer

It makes no sense to say that home team runliness are bad.

I work in finance, and similar to the stock market, the possibility of only 8 innings of plate appearances is reflected in the opening runline. Additionally, the fact that most people don't realize this and follow the belief that 'home team runlines are bad" just further skew the actual run-in into the home teams favor due to the other side bets.

I am not saying that if you bet every home team runlines for the year you are guaranteed a profit, I am just saying that everything evens out and you can't just disregard them as possibly being a favorable bet.

Hope I explained that well enough and it makes sense.

Birds on Bat - Been following you for a while and greatly appreciate your daily posts.

Good luck all! Let's make some money!

dcgmt · Answer

GL Birds

jdr016 · Answer

Good post. I don&#x27;t play RLs myself. But, the "no value in the home team RLs" argument never made any sense to me. Home teams win more than road teams. As reflected in lines on a daily basis. Plus, I&#x27;ve seen plenty of cases where a game is tied and a guy hits a two run homer to cover the RL. The road team doesn&#x27;t get another at bat after that to counter. Hell, how about the Yankees covering the RL last night with Holliday&#x27;s home run.

undermysac · Answer

Nice run BoB

barneybeans · Answer

Been hearing this my whole life and guess what? It&#x27;s built into the line.This is my third post this week about this week, I&#x27;m sure there were other opportunities to post this again that I missed:Cleveland Indians -1.5 &#x2B;115, Gallardo/SalazarIf this is in SEA tonight, CLE possibly getting an extra inning at bat (only if winning), RL would be CLE -1&#xBD; -$110Guess what again? If it&#x27;s a low total like between 5-7 you&#x27;re only laying -$105 on that  CLE -1&#xBD;If the total is 7-9: -$110Higher? -$115 to -$120If a certain bet type is such a loser (MLB home team laying 1&#xBD;) go the other way and take the &#x2B;1&#xBD;!BOL

lajohn · Answer

"Birds"...What do you think about the Anaheim/Texas game?Chavez &amp; Darvish look "about the same", however, Anaheim won 6 of their last 7, while, Texas has won 6 of their last 9 at home.Also...the Cinci/St Louis game...Arroyo has a 6.86 ERA in 4 starts this month, while Leake is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.40 in his last 3 starts.Cinci lost 4 in a row, and 8 of their last 9, while, St Louis is 9-2 in their last 11, including being 6-1 in their last 7 at home.Baltimore/Yankees?This game looks VERY "intriguing", considering how "all hell broke loose in the 7th inning yesterday.Jimenez is "not bad", but, Pineda is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts, AND, the Yankees are 9-1 at home....finally, "thoughts" about TB/Toronto?

BirdsOnBat · Answer

No. All are the same until we get further into the season and the difference between PODs and regular plays warrants larger wager sizes. I like to get 25-50 POD plays, and then I adjust to 1.50% of bankroll.Wish I had been twice the amount of PODs thus far, as I would be above .500!

mbiddy · Answer

GL today BoB

RLeith35 · Answer

Bet against Pineda F5

BirdsOnBat · Answer

LAA/Tex: lean Texas, but the line is about where it should be. No lean on the run totalCIN/STL: lean STL, but like the over if it drops to 8BAL/NYY: I am on the over here. If had to play a side, I would take the O&#x27;s at &#x2B;160TB/Toronto: I am on TB &#x2B;114.

lajohn · Answer

...thanks ...and GL

Bigdoubleplay · Answer

Gl today bob,way to turn it around!

BirdsOnBat · Answer

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Saturday *** Final ***
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Baltimore/New York Over 8.5 -120, Jimenez/Pineda

Cleveland Indians -1.5 +115, Gallardo/Salazar

Tampa Bay Rays +114, Andriese/Liriano

Milwaukee Brewers -116, Garcia/Nelson

San Francisco Giants -126, Chacin/Cain

Houston Astros -1.5 +135, Triggs/Musgrove

BarneysDad · Answer

Your a Douchebag who never post plays but talks a lot of $HIT

Bob's MLB Saturday * 4.29.17 *

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