2021 HOT STOVE

@JEG53

 No, Yankees didn't signed him as a free agent, they traded for him with Seattle, the 2019 and 2020 contracts were signed to avoid arbitration, because he was under the teams control, he was a FA this season, so NY didn't offer him any contract and took that money and went for Kluber.

All the teams had big loses, last season, Yankees lost the most money out of all of them, which makes sense given the circumstances. All the moves that Yankees made had a directive from ownership: keep the payroll below the $210 million luxury threshold, which they managed to do.

The Dodgers and catcher Austin Barnes have agreed on a two-year, $4.3 million deal to avoid arbitration.The Dodgers are likely done adding salary to the big league roster this offseason, with all the signings the Dodgers are around $44 million over the $210 million luxury threshold. If the Dodgers don’t shed any payroll, they will be taxed at a 42.4 percent rate. The Dodgers’ first-round pick in next year’s MLB Draft will also be moved back 10 places as a penalty.

Dodgers have the same MO as the Lakers, must be something about the city

@yaongingy

"Dodgers have the same MO as the Lakers, must be something about the city"

Interesting thought there. I once herd Colin Cowherd expound that New York and L.A. teams need "star power" just to hold an audience. Winning is nice, but the fans need stars in their orbit or they lose attention (and interest). You can lose the game, as long as your stars provided plenty of video and ink. Controversy is great, it plays well on TV. 

@KeyElement

 I was being sarcastic, hence the rolling eyes, of course that's one of the main reasons, but more importantly, both of those cities have a big population, hence a big following which translates in a lot of revenue.

The main issue with what teams like the Lakers and Dodgers are doing is that they are just buying talent, for the simple reason that they can afford it. So if you have enough money to just buy FA, what's the point of the draft? Or for that matter the farm system and developing talent? This financial discrepancy, between teams with huge markets and those with smaller markets, severely limits the number of teams who are competitive. Imagine how much money the Dodgers make, if going $42 million over the luxury threshold is seen as acceptable.

I don't think games are fixed but I believe that the league has a vested interest in making money and perpetuating their product. As a result I believe refs/officials/umps "lean" meaning if a call can go either way make it go the way that will lead to what the league probably wants. I don't think there is any explicit commands to do anything in particular, but it's implied. I believe Donaghy's claims to the same. Also Donaghy didn't ref the NBA 2002 game 6 SAC/LAL semifinals game but if there ever was a push by the refs to force a game 7 and keep the bigger market fan fav team in it, it was that game. It's hard to believe the officials didn't hand that game to the Lakers.

But as far as my MLB futures bets on SD, it's up to the team to get there and be close. The league is not going to lean every Laker game or every Dodger game game to make a mediocre Lakers team or a mediocre Dodgers make it all the way to the playoffs. The team has to earn it on their own or be close, needing only a small amt of help down the stretch. Once that team is in the refs can lean a bit, force a game 7 in game 6, stuff like that.

Lastly with so many ways to call contact in NFL and NBA... MLB is so much harder to be swayed by an ump, controversial calls behind the plate, balls and strikes can only happen so many times in a game. Especially now with that strike zone grid for all to see. Yes some umps strike zone will favor one team over the other but at least the umps are consistent enough in their calls/strike zones for the most part in a single game for both teams, that game.

I guess the league could, in a best of 7 series, plan the umps in a way so that if they know the pitching rotation they could plan the plate umps in the worst possible scenario for SD and favor the LAD.

What I mean is in a LAD SD series, let's say SD pitcher Skippy is an artist painting the corners

SD pitcher Bubba pitches lefties really well inside and usually gets those inside calls from most umps - but not from the purple ump, who calls every pitch touching the inside of the plate a ball.

LAD are heavy lefties in the rotation lately

GAME 1 Skippy will get the Blue Ump who has a really small strike zone.

GAME 2 Bubba will start and have the purple ump behind the plate.

I hardly ever see the same ump in the same game not give the same calls for the same pitch location. They are not as bad as every sports gambler thinks. Yes, everyone will come on with a story about the game they lost and how the ump called this for the team but not his team.

10 to 14 inches of snow over Chicago tonight into Tue morning. 

Key joked about the prevailing winds moving east to west once...well this system is coming from the NE right over the lake.

Thanks for the jynx 

@undermysac

 You're welcome. 

@undermysac

 Nope, that wasn't Key, that is the Polar Vortex kicking you ass atm, it was known for over a month it will come, we even have it here, but no snow unfortunately for us . We are going through a week of cold, -1 Celsius tops during the day with wind, while at night it goes down to under -10C, which isn't that common for my area. Except for some periods of cold, like this one, not much of a winter in these parts, it snowed twice and only once the snow managed to stay a day on the ground.

@barneybeans

"Also Donaghy didn't ref the NBA 2002 game 6 SAC/LAL semifinals game but if there ever was a push by the refs to force a game 7 and keep the bigger market fan fav team in it, it was that game. It's hard to believe the officials didn't hand that game to the Lakers."

That game was one of my primary tip-offs on the leagues fixing games as opposed to gamblers. Most folks didn't realize the Lakers wemt to the free throw line more times in the fourth quarter of that game (27 I believe) than they had in entire full game all season. And, you are right, it wasn't Donaghy the fixer that was reffing that game. It was Dick ______, the last name escapes me, but he admittedly said near the end of his career that "They send me where they need me because they know I will deliver the result they want." HE worked that game and had to catch his breath often to continue blowing his whistle. 

Being in a Sports Bar in Calif. and closer to the Kings than Lakers we had developed a good following over those years that the Kings had that team, for that Game 6 we let way to many people in for a game that was called that way, we had fans of both teams sitting on top of each other, as that ref took over the game in the 4th 1/4 to get the Lakers back in the game. I knew no matter who won we were going to have issues and every foul would get the King Fans screaming and of course the Lakers Fans would call them names, like Big Babies, Kings are Choking and anything else which just pissed off the Kings Fans more.

At the end when the Lakers took the lead the place just when nuts and guys and girls were jumping across tables to try to get at who had bugged them the most, it was kind of a Trump Thing, the NBA having that game fixed and Kings with big lead it really incited the whole room, we have seating for a bit over 200, we had well over 400 people in there so we had to take care of it ourselves, no way we wanted Cops or Fire Dept.there, but they were so tired after that game. Remember it was a long game and we did the alert to get every guy working at the time to get to the bar we just pushed them all out the doors and it really was much easier than I thought it was going to be. We did have a group of Mgrs from Jersey then and a couple of them were good size and they took care of a section just them.

Like Key said after that we knew the League was involved in fixing games to extend series for TV ratings, and it was soon after when Tim got caught and wrote his book and though he was not working that game it made his book and he used that game to try to say he was doing it for the League when he was just a crook and a Gambler and was doing it for the money, but he made no bones about the fact everyone knew it was going to happen if need be.

@JEG53

 Nice recap on that, and I am glad you escaped with your life. Was there not a big brawl in the parking lot? My brother, as you know, is Sacramento area and I don't know if he has watched an NBA game since. Totally disgusting. They wouldn't let the Palms in Las Vegas book the NBA when the Maloof brothers owned it because of the implied effect of casino owners and sports gambling. What hypocrisy. The NFL was caught on camera and microphone just a few years ago, and international soccer is legendary when it comes to fixing. Just gotta be careful guys, and don't let anything shock you.

Back to MLB. Unless I miss my guess the N.L. East is going to be a WAR this year. The Marlins look out of it already, but three teams in that division will be pulling for them when they play the other division team. The east could be settled by whoever has the fewest critical injuries. I know there are folks that think the Braves or Mets run away with it, but I think the Nats and Phillies can turn it into a dog fight.

Your thoughts?  

@KeyElement

 Actually since you know the lay out we usually would have some issues on the outside patio if you remember how that was right out the door and in a few guys thing we would put one outside and other by the bathrooms,2 doors lead out.And we would have extended problems if they would reconnect.

This one and maybe because it took off at end of game and I do not think punches were landed, just a bunch of pushes, kind of like a baseball brawl where not much happens, so once we were able to push the piles outdoors they just left, it was really not bad when you consider half the bar was involved.

So I need to keep my eyes on the East it sounds, I know I like a few teams there but looks like I better read some more on how many teams I have there?

@JEG53

 Yep, even the Marlins have some dangerous pitching this year if it develops as it should, and the Phillie and Nats have a better prospectus than they showed last year. That short season buried some prople early that never hit their stride. Toss up games every day in that division.

@KeyElement

 I like the Nats cause everyone is looking at the Mets, Phillies and Braves.

The Marlins "could" have the best arms in the division that no one knows about yet.

@undermysac

 Gotta watch those totals: Anything over 90 has to be at least considered for an under play. 

Any news on how the baseball are going to move this year? Over under set at 90 would lean to juice balls or balls the size of a softball anyway,   

@JEG53

 I fail to see the connection between the size or liveliness of the balls and how many wins a team puts up 

Perhaps a livelier ball is beneficial to a more powerful lineup, but total wins/losses is more relative to the competition you faced. Play a tough schedule and you win fewer games. The N.L. East teams will face a brutal intra-divisional schedule this year. It is not hard at all to see all five teams between 72 and 90 wins. Then, the dear sweet old public would underrate the winner based on fewer total wins than say the Dodgers or Padres. Total wins is a nice stat, but; who did you beat?  

@undermysac

No sooner did we comment on the potential of the Marlins young starter staff than mlb....com has posted an article about that very same potential. Really, these guys could upset the old applecart in the east by being a tough spot in the schedule instead of a point to relax for a few days.  

 Soon boys, very soon 

@undermysac

Sent you a P.M.  

@KeyElement

 Well when you mention 90 as a benchmark for unders I just assumed the live ball was still in play   but of course SOS is always a factor unless you pick teams like me,  .

Just read it. I wouldn't be opposed to a few bucks on it

@JEG53

 The 90 is not an overall benchmark - just the N.L. East. A minimum of 4 teams should win 90.

@KeyElement

 But your not playing 4 teams to win 90, esp with the way they play each other more times a year now, they changed it up some years ago so they start and finish against teams in conf.

@JEG53

 Out-of-division games are pretty much a balanced effort. Everyone plays a round robin, so there is a balance there. In the division it makes a huge difference if Dodgers and Padres only have each other to beat and can roll over the other three members of the division. In the N.L. East nobody is going to roll over anybody and it is a matter of all 5 teams beating up on each other. More competitive = fewer wins. The work I have done so far shows the N.L. East and N.L. West to be the top divisions, but the East is BALANCED, whereas the West will have two belligerent bullies and far less behind them. The bullies get their wins, but the balanced division shares their wins. Hence, the balance creates the high water mark for an individual team at 90.

@JEG53

 https://www.mlb.com/news/national-league-west-roundtable-on-dodgers-padres

This article may explain why "experts" think the same way I do, but it is new and my thoughts were developed earlier (look at recent comments). Top heavy in the West, balanced in the East. 100 wins versus a weak schedule is not necessarily better than 90 wins versus a tough schedule. Total wins do not predict the eventual champion, or the best team for that matter.