Posted:
#51
I can't see how this is going to be a money maker but I will continue to watch in anticipation
2014 Major League Super System with write up
Posted:
#53
Coatsy
I feel exactly the opposite. Think of it this way. What are the odds you can guess heads or tails if I flip a coin. 50/50 that you will be right. Now try to flip a coin 6 times a have it come up the same every time. Not so easy. If you want to know the real odds dust off that old statistics textbook. Now how does this apply to our system. Most good teams are going to be even money or +110, +120 when they are dogs. Hmmmm. I would take even money and bet you couldnt be correct the same 6 times in a row but now you are going to pay me a premium? Ill take it. But the oddsmaker dont make mistakes you say? The favorite always win! "Not"I am betting "not" and if you want to see the math beauty then dont spend any $ just watch.
All I need is a big enough sample size and I cant lose. I think we can get a good sample size out of 162 game season
Posted:
#57
For those keepin track at home in our little spring training experiment.
Nye, oak and Arizona all push and stay in match we have the following eliminations and wins as the books seem to ave trouble keeping a streak going
1. Colorado +12.60
2. Seattle +3.15
3. LAA +6.30
4. Det +6
+28.05. Units today
Total...+17.55 units
Posted:
#61
Even if you only played Rockies still would be a black day. The system continues on. These spring games are not going to give us a ton of juicy opportunities. Feel free to keep track using lines available to you. Principal still the same. You can see the books have not been able to even get beyond 3 in a row so far.
Posted:
#64
honestly I really like your effort bro but this is just another form of a chase system.. if you continue to bet a team even if they loose your are "Chasing" a bet. again this is just my opinion and I love the effort and I really hope this works out for you.. but also spring training is really hard to experiment this with because teams aren't starting their regulars everyday. best of luck bro.
Posted:
#67
Morn guys What i don't see in your approach is do you look at what the Teams themselves are doing
Oakland has averaged 4 runs per game in a very short ST Season so far and with Starters still pitching 2 and max 3 inn no body is in the game long enough to make a sure decision,Thus where do you go to pick a winner ???????
Their runs allowed are 4.4 ave so far
This team is a 50% team at best to date
____________________________________________________
Dodgers are slightly worse at ave 3.5 or almost dead even and
their runs allowed is just over 3 telling us they too are at a 50%
and for all intent and purposes this game is a total guessing game and a game to def avoid wagering on IMO
Posted:
#69
Stevo
Yes if you go back and read my thread from the beginning you will see once the regular season starts we only bet top 15 teams but for spring training we are just experimenting and betting all teams. No real money being placed yet.
Speaking of which we our second bet of the day
Miami Marlins 3/3
Posted:
#73
I want to thank James T for providing me with the info needed to do backtesting. Sadly this will be my last post. I know I said I would show all my picks during the year but the information I have is too valuable to just post for free. Backtesting has validated my theory and my next move will be to get with a statistician to make the final adjustments to my theory and publish my findings. I will return to this thread (if I can find it) once my theory is in publication so you can get a copy for yourself. I have no objection to some interested observer continuing on using my principals as a guide.but backtesting did reveal some minor adjustments I will make as I go forward with real money betting. In due time I will make it available to the world. Ill leave you with a little taste before I leave for good.
If you had gone to Vegas at the beginning of last baseball season and basically followed my principals for thirty days but ignored me and just bet all 30 teams (instead of top 15) when they were dogs including the lowly Astros you would have left with money in your pocket after match 1. What you say? even betting the Marlins and Astros? If you had the balls and bank roll to make your min bet 100 and your max bet 3200(six bet) you would have left Vegas with a tidy profit of $6146.00. Guess how many times your back would have been against the wall with a big money bet? Ill let you do the testing for yourself. Like I said there is no way I'm giving this info away for free. I may check in from time to time to see if anyone has continued my thread. but I actually hope it goes into oblivion..
Good Luck to all
The Master Gippy
Posted:
#74
Quote Originally Posted by MasterGippy22:
I want to thank James T for providing me with the info needed to do backtesting. Sadly this will be my last post. I know I said I would show all my picks during the year but the information I have is too valuable to just post for free. Backtesting has validated my theory and my next move will be to get with a statistician to make the final adjustments to my theory and publish my findings. I will return to this thread (if I can find it) once my theory is in publication so you can get a copy for yourself. I have no objection to some interested observer continuing on using my principals as a guide.but backtesting did reveal some minor adjustments I will make as I go forward with real money betting. In due time I will make it available to the world. Ill leave you with a little taste before I leave for good.
If you had gone to Vegas at the beginning of last baseball season and basically followed my principals for thirty days but ignored me and just bet all 30 teams (instead of top 15) when they were dogs including the lowly Astros you would have left with money in your pocket after match 1. What you say? even betting the Marlins and Astros? If you had the balls and bank roll to make your min bet 100 and your max bet 3200(six bet) you would have left Vegas with a tidy profit of $6146.00. Guess how many times your back would have been against the wall with a big money bet? Ill let you do the testing for yourself. Like I said there is no way I'm giving this info away for free. I may check in from time to time to see if anyone has continued my thread. but I actually hope it goes into oblivion..
Good Luck to all
The Master Gippy
just cause you claim you know your picks, you refuse to give a pick for free, shame on you..imgain if you dead before you spend that money..so greedy before richness llls......don't lose your soul tryna gain the world,
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