Gippy Nation
We are starting a new match 5 today in the Champ League. Good time to jump in if just starting
Champ League Match 5
METS
White sox
PHI
Ariz
MILW
Cubs
We are playing 27 of 30 teams, and have eliminated the bottom feeders ranked 28,29,30 as a dog
KC, Clev and Pitt
Good Luck
MG
aggravating computer crash when placing my bets earlier. It costs me a bet on Milwaukee in I new Rock select league. By the time I got to my tablet a couple of games had already started. This used to bother me but I just wait til the next time a particular team is a dog and continue on. I just mention this because some day like Lucky dan always want to critique each play game by game. For my system it doesn't really matter. These things happen
Mg.
Even after a disaterous Match 2 which we offset by calling off plays on our bottom feeding teams we are starting to "Rock and Roll in Matches 3, 4, and 5 of the Rock League. Even with a ridiculous computer crash that only allowed me to get in 2 games we won both and won have won the rest. Im adding Toronto to my select match 5 in the Rock League in that they won out of Match 4 and they are playing a nice clip as a dog.
Onward we march collecting data
Good Luck
BG
Hang in their lucky. we are fixing to get fat.
Lucky I will post as soon as I can. I'm not completely done with all the matches. I start new matches while others are still going while I wait for some of these infrequent dogs to give me me some action. I'm out of town but will try to post my current results no later than Sunday, as they appear on my actual excel spread sheet.
Mg
Lucky
As far as my individual results it does matter very much and believe me Ive paid the price. The beauty of this system is you just have to follow the theory. If you followed the theory you are in better shape than me. You may have gotten better pay out on a dog I didn't. I'm not making picks or suggesting individual picks to anyone. I really don't even care about results of individual games. I invented the system because in theory it made sense and back testing proves its a winner with the tweaking Ive suggested. What I mean when I say it doesn't matter is that I can't undo a bettor error. All I can do is place the bet on that team next time they area dog and go on. I agree bookkeeping is a challenge and I'm learning as I go. Ive had to change the way I do things just to keep things straight. Ive gone from betting the big game of the week to 10 bets or more a day. I may publish 2 sets of results if I have time. My actual spreadsheets and what it would look like without bettor error but with my time constraints it will be a challenge. Constructive criticism is always welcome but prove I'm wrong in theory before you accuse me of being misleading to others. If my theory falls apart in practice it will be there for all to see but I think the results will speak for themselves
Cincinnati is 4-11 as a dog and playing at a .26 clip as a dog. They have lost 4 in a row as a dog and I see no reason to play them going forward with what they have shown so far. I will continue to monitor their record but based on the data it appears its time to not play them. Despite the criticism I'm likely to hear from Lucky its the right call to make.
UPDATED DOG RANKINGS
have been super busy last couple of weeks and have been unable to post. I have gone back and double checked my stats and will update the current rankings with comments. Keep in mind what we are looking for . Teams that we can count on to go 6 games and not lose all six as we double each bet.
1. Detroit 2-1 as a dog (.666) doesn't mean much because we wont get to play them much as you can see. Having said that play em if you can.
2. Milwaukee- 11-6 (.647.) Everything we look for in a dog. Model of consistency. Stil;; overlooked by the odds makers. Never lost 3 in a row as a dog
3. San Francisco 9-5 as a dog (.6428) Never lost 2 in a row. Know how to win as a dog. I want them on my team.
4. * Atlanta 8-5 as a dog (.615) Word of caution. This result is somewhat skewed because they won there first 6 in a row as a dog. They have since lost 6 out of 8. Not sure if this is a team I would want on my roster after the all star break when we up the ante and raise our bet sizing. Jury is out til then as we continue to monitor.
5. Baltimore 14-11 as a dog (.56) They are another team that has been money Large sample size and still defying the oddsmakers. Never lost 3 in a row as a dog. As Bill Parcel would say "Ill take a six pack of these guys"
6. St. Louis 5-4 as a dog.(.555) Small sample size but pretty consistent so far. Nothing that worries me much just don't get much play from them. Never lost 2 in a row as a dog
7.. Twins 18-18 as a dog (.50) Larger sample size and never lost more than 3 in a row. They baffle the odds makers. I want them on the team bus after the all start break.
8. White sox 15-15 as a dog (.50). Another team that baffles oddsmakers . There going to the match with me. They did lose 4 in a row once but this sample siae is pretty large. We will check them out at the 44 game mark, but expect much of the same.
9. Ny Mets 15-16 as a dog (.483) Even though they are a New York team, the oddsmakers are baffled by them. Large sample size and never lost more than 3 in a row,
10. Toronto 8-9 as a dog (.4705) Never lost 3 in a row and a good sample size. See mo reason to keep them off the roster
11. Miami 13-15 as a dog (.4644) After a horrible start losing 6 in a row at one point they have defied Vegas with some timely hitting a good pitching. Pretty large sample size and seemed to have settled into a groove losing no more than 3 in a row, since the bad start. Jury is out because of loss of top pitcher recently so lets see where they are at break.
12. San Diego 12-14 as a dog (.4615) Large sample size and defying the oddsmakers. They have been money for me in all matches all year. Never lost over 3 in a row. I wont start the bus unless I know there on board.
13. Rockies 10-12 as a dog. (.4545) They are a mystery team just like Seattle who is next on the list. They were solid as a "rock" no pun intended, but have gone streaking..... in a bad way losing 5 in a row as a dog. Not a good sign. Jury is out despite overall record
14. Seattle 10-12 (.4545) Strangest of all teams. They have a 7 game losing streak as a dog, and a six game winning streak. They are kinda of the Tony Romo of our team. Good when there good and bad when bad. They do have King Felix so the jury is is still out for me. Just have to keep an eye on them
15. Nationals 5-6 as adog (.4544) Don't know why I just don't trust them. They lost 4 in a row as dog and sample size is small. The jury is out til break for me
16. Philadelphia 11-14 as a dog (.444) Pretty darn consistent and never lost more than 3 in a row. I would think we could find a place on the roster for them
17. Yankees 6-8 (.4287) I put them in same category as the Angels who have the same record. Seem to be OK and never lost more than 3 in a row. I think they have less respect from oddsmakers this year for some reason. That's a good thing for us.
18, LAA Angels 6-8 (.4287) Almost the same as Yankees and never lost 3 in a row. After several bad seasons just not getting as much respect as they probably should from Vegas.
19. Arizona 11-18 as a dog (.3795) Another team with a horrible start who appears to have settled down . They lost 5 in a row ro start the season and had another 4 game losing streak, but for some reason I m guessing they will improve by the allstar break. I would probably choose them over Miami at this point if I had to make a choice.
20. Cubs 11- 19 as a dog (.366) Large sample size and they have a few bad streaks but 4 is the most they have lost as dog. By the break we will see where they are overall after 44 games. Im on the fence but I can see keeping them on my ream or cutting them depending on how they do over the next month.
21. Tampa Bay 4-7 as a dog. (.363) A mystery team for me. Not much of a sample size and oddsmakers give them mucho respect which means when they are a dog there is good reason for it (see Oakland when we get to them) Jury is out for me
22. Houston 14-26 as a dog. (.35) Thought they would be at the bottom? Wrong. They have the largest sample size in 40 games and we probably can say we know more about them than most teams. They started the season with some long losing streaks but look like they have settled in. Im not sure if I will want them on my team but they will be in the mix. When they win they usually produce a hefty price in the winners circle. I am monitoring them closely but I would take them over others yet to come.
23. Boston 2-4 as a dog (.333) Not much to like here. They are never a dog anyway. They are kind of like the promising player who is always hurt. Odds makers give they waaaaay too much undeserving respect. Ill probably put then on the PUP list and forget them
24. LAD 3-6 as a dog (.333) They have had a few more games than Boston . Im on the fence. We will see where they are at the break
25. Pitt 7-14 as a dog (.333) They have actually played better since I put out the don't play them warning. I don't see my opinion changing. They are getting tons of respect for little reason. I stick with my don't play them warning and that goes for all team remaining below
26. Texas 5-15 (.333) It pains me to say this because I am a lifelong Rangers fan. but they are going down the tubes. The oddsmakers will take advantage of the public who will bet them based on the past. They may end up below the Astros by the Allstar break. DONT PLAY
27, Cleveland 6-13 AS A DOG (.3157) I put the don't play tag on them a while back and for good reason. They are losers as a dog. They are also streaky and given too much respect based on last year.
28 CINNINATTI 5-12 as a dog (.294) I put the don't play tag on them a while baCk and I see no reason to change my mind. Cant win with them as Mike Singletary would say. DONT PLAY
29. Oakland 2-6 as a dog (.25) This a mystery team. One of the best in baseball yet they are unplayable as a dog. Vegas seems to have there number and knows when they are going to lose. I would almost say bet the favorite if there a dog. Sample size is small but doubt Ill issue them a uniform at the allstar break. Too spooky!DONT PLAY
30 Kansas City 3-13 as a DOG (.23) This was the first team I called out as a no pLay. They stink. They were the first team I cut and I don't see them coming back in the fold. They suck as a dog and you need to have your head examined if you play them.... DONT PLAY
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