Posted:
#76
cheers amigo, thanks for starting this thread, continued success ahead.
2014 Major League Super System with write up
Posted:
#80
I know I said I wasnt going to post anymore but I guess I cant help myself. I would feel guilty if someone followed my original rules because back testing has revealed some adjustments you will need to make if you are going to use the system. I have since hired a grad student mathematician who is backtesting my system for the last 3 major league seasons and I don't have all of the results yet. I may change my mind and post my 2014 matches on here and I may not. I am going to be playing and I am increasing my bet sizing from minimum 15 to max of 480. Also ignore what I said about top 15 teams only. You want to eliminate the bottom 2 teams and the top 2 teams and play the other 26 reshuffling after each match with new rankings. there is just too much meat on the table by not playing more teams.
I gave an example earlier if you had gone to vegas for the start of baseball season and used my system and played out one match with all teams, and what the results would be. I used the covers "scores" boxscores from last year. You want to know what would have happened if you had stayed in Vegas with same bet sizing and played a match two? You would have had to sweat two "big money games" this time. You can probably guess who one of them was the lowly astros. However once again on their six game as a dog they pulled out the miracle win at +295! The other team surprisingly was the LA Dodgers who lost 6 in a row as a dog. (Remember it is possible but not probable to flip a coin and have it come up the same side 6 times in a row) All other teams won well before there big money game except Boston who went to 5 games before winning as a dog. I noticed that in match 1 the only other team to get close was Tampa. So what was going on?These top teams are rarely dogs. My back testing proves that. When they are a dog there is usually a good reason. They are starting an emergency starter or playing a top 3 team against a good pitcher. That is why I am starting the season eliminating the top 2 teams and the bottom 2. the astros were really bad last year and there is no reason to get out to game 6 over and over with such a bad team.
Ill leave you with this...... after Match 2 in my little Vegas scenario even with the dodgers losing that big money game you would have won $4710.40. If you dont believe it all the tools are there for you to go back and prove me wrong. Good luck to those who are smart enough and diligent enough to follow it. Food for thought... the odds of flipping a coin 6 times in a row and having it come up the same each time are less than 3%.
Posted:
#81
To my followers
I have continued backtesting and if you are going to use my system you will need to make one final adjustment. Ignore every single thing I said about team rankings. The only rankings that matter are a teams record as a dog. Our rankings well be the dog rankings from one to thirty. We can be 75% sure after 12 game that a team performs well as a dog or they dontAfterr a sample 44 games 90% sure. That will be around the all star break for most teams. After a team has played 12 games as a dog they will be ranked by our system according to their performance. By the all star break we will not be betting many teams even as dogs.
Posted:
#84
Im still waiting for my math guru to give me backtesting results back to 2006 season. I decided to do some backtesting of my own and went back to 2011 season. I can see why it is taking so long. I began with opening day and used 100 as a min and 3200 as a max bet to make the calculations easier. I was able to play 6 matches through June 19, 2011. Playing all the teams you would be up $17,295.00. You would also have a fairy good sample size of who has a good record as a dog and who does not. Oddly enough some of the worst win percentages were from good teams The Plillies that year were really good and rarely a dog but when they were their win percentage was .250 which I found shocking. The sample size was small 2 wins in 8 games so I probably wouldn't quit playing them until I had a larger sample size. The Oakland A's had a .30 win percentage with a larger sample 5wins 17 tries. The cubs were .29 win percentage 6 out of 21. I think at that point if it occurs in the real games I would eliminate any team with a win percentage under .30, which we will call our Gippy Mendoza line, if the sample size is over 12 games. As I go forward in my 2011 back testing I would eliminate Oakland and the Cubs and closely monitor the Phillies. there were several teams just above .30 around .333 and they would be closely watched as the sample size grew. Remember at 44 games I will be 90% sure of whether I keep betting them or not.
The best team was Boston at 100% 6/6 but were rarely a dog. The nest best was Toronto at .857. Most of the teams fall between .333 and .6 which is good enough to be profitable. If I can finish my backtest before opening day I wll let you know the final results I only expect the profits to go higher.
Good luck
Posted:
#87
Tweaking
One other mistake I realized while doing backtesting is that we need to keep up with wins and losses of all teams whether we are playing them that day or not. this will help us get to our key sample of performance of dogs over a 44 game sample. I am still debating on what I am going to begin the season with. I think a minimum of 25.and max of 800 is too high. Opening day is coming soon so I think I will start min 10 and max 320 with an eye to increasing after we get some stats under our belt which I believe will be around the all start break for most teams. I am continuing my backtesting of 2011 season and Im on match 7 and 8. I will post when I have time to finish it
Good luck
Posted:
#88
Decided to end spring training experiment. I want to concentrate on getting some backtesting completed to see if I need to do any final tweaking, before opening day. I just played one match. Texas won today for+9.45 and total units were +65.20 and no team got to a game 6. only teams left were Laa and Boston who each lost only games they only games they were dogs
Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by MasterGippy22:
Decided to end spring training experiment. I want to concentrate on getting some backtesting completed to see if I need to do any final tweaking, before opening day. I just played one match. Texas won today for+9.45 and total units were +65.20 and no team got to a game 6. only teams left were Laa and Boston who each lost only games they only games they were dogs
Decided to end spring training experiment. I want to concentrate on getting some backtesting completed to see if I need to do any final tweaking, before opening day. I just played one match. Texas won today for+9.45 and total units were +65.20 and no team got to a game 6. only teams left were Laa and Boston who each lost only games they only games they were dogs
Texas had lost their last 4 games as a dog until today, yet you only won 9.45 units with their game 5 win today. ???
Posted:
#91
Dan
I don't know why you keep posting. Your comments are distorted, wrong and just plain irrelevant. . Like I said I wasn't betting real money in preseason Maybe I missed a game so what. The principal is the same. they won game 4, so its money. What s your problem? I will post each match this year as it ends and you can poke holes in it if you think you can. Ive done enough backtesting to know I'm on to something. If you want to keep losing money its your business. Go do some backtesting prove me wrong and then come post with facts otherwise be negative elsewhere. Send me your email and ill send my preseason spreadsheet. Maybe they weren't a dog for me and they were for you. It was an experiment like I said and as always it was a winner anyway which you couldn't deny with facts if you tried.
I will also periodically post a running total of dog rankings the benefit of those who want to make money. I didn't come on here to deceive anyone. In will not respond to you again.
Posted:
#92
After further research, I have listed the last 7 games in which Texas
was a dog. You indicated that no team got to 6 games yet Texas got to a
game 7 today. Odds are courtesy of Pinnacle and 5 Dimes.
1. 3/9 +115 vs Seattle L
2. 3/11 +102 vs CWS L
3. 3/14 +103 vs Cin L
4. 3/17 +107 vs KC L
5. 3/20 +113 vs Cin L
6. 3/22 +106 vs KC L
7. 3/26 +117 vs Cle W
What did I miss?
GL
1. 3/9 +115 vs Seattle L
2. 3/11 +102 vs CWS L
3. 3/14 +103 vs Cin L
4. 3/17 +107 vs KC L
5. 3/20 +113 vs Cin L
6. 3/22 +106 vs KC L
7. 3/26 +117 vs Cle W
What did I miss?
GL
Posted:
#93
Not disputing you Dan but I'm not sure when I started my spring training experiment. Also not sure they were dogs with my book, or if I missed a game.. I do hope to complete 2011 backtesting at least through all star break of that year using the covers lines so its easy to verify. Ive also decide it would be wise to begin the season with a $5 min until I have at least 12 game sample size and hope to increase dramatically at 44 game sample size and have dog rankings to guide who I want in my matches. I will probably try to post the first match results until I get started with match 2,then it might be too time consuming.
Posted:
#95
Last minute tweaking. I was able to complete my backtesting through the all star break of 2011 season. I will report all raw data when backtesting is completed back through 2006 season. I will reserve the right to call a match early if there are only a 2 or three teams left and the match is profitable. I played through the all star break in 2011. Match 7 was odd. There were 3 teams left Detroit with one loss,Milwaukee, with one loss and KC with 3. Match 8 was up and running and in the black. There was a little over a week til allstar break. Detroit won its next game but Kc (bad team lost next three as dogs) and Milwaukee who was a good team and rarely a dog lost 5 straight the last one right after the break. Disaster! was this an anamoly? Hard to say, but for sure we have to watch for streaky teams in our tracking. Milwaukee and Philly were good that year but bad playing as a dog. In that situation I could have just called the match early and been super profitable starting with second half and lots of data to pour over. Once we have tracked 44 games for a team we will know with the 90% accuracy how they play as a dog and will bet accordingly. After 12 games we will know a lot. its the same math that allows polling to predict elections with a 3-4% margin of error when they only poll 150 people. It just works out that way.
we will stasrt playing all teams, and track all the teams results when they play as dogs. We will eliminate some teams after they play 44 games as a dog but continue monitoring all. We will dramatically increase bet size after all star break
PLAY BALL AND GOOD LUCK!
Posted:
#96
While I wish you the best of luck, I think that you will find people in this forum are against playing as many games as your system will dictate playing. They would prefer to base their wagers on the merits/data on that particular day's game vs blindly following a system.
Go back to post 1 and compare it to post 95. I think people who have read your posts are totally confused as to what your intentions (other than winning) are at this point. Much like Nuke Laloosh, you are all over the place at this juncture.
One can make backtesting look good with the right tweaking or using filters. What was good in the past does not dictate what the future will bring.
Again, best of luck.
Go back to post 1 and compare it to post 95. I think people who have read your posts are totally confused as to what your intentions (other than winning) are at this point. Much like Nuke Laloosh, you are all over the place at this juncture.
One can make backtesting look good with the right tweaking or using filters. What was good in the past does not dictate what the future will bring.
Again, best of luck.
Posted:
#97
It appears there will be no qualifying dog for tonight but plenty of action for tomorrow. I have already placed my real money bets 10 min; 320 max) with my local guy and my 3-31 card looks like the following:
Match 1
Cubs 10/14.50
Mets 10/15
Rockies 10/15
Arizona 10/11.50
Kansas city 10/14.5
Baltimore 10/10
Toronto 10/15
tWINS 10/15
Clev 10/11
Seattle 10/11.50
Also the regular season has already begun. Our dog tracker already has data from Arizona. We will track every teams record as a dog for the year......
1. Arizona LL
As promised I will post my Match 1 record for all to see and then periodically update the match results throughout the year as they are completed. I will try to keep current dog records posted daily. I will also report the backtesting results back to 2006 when they are finished. If you are going to try this system you have to have a spread sheet and excel is perfect for keeping track otherwise you will get lost. I will also report once a team has crossed the gippy mendoza line and is no longer bettable.
Set up your spread sheet
all thirty teams going down vertically and six rows across for each match.
Lets play ball!
Posted:
#100
[Quote: Originally Posted by MasterGippy22] It appears there will be no qualifying dog for tonight but plenty of action for tomorrow. I have already placed my real money bets 10 min; 320 max) with my local guy and my 3-31 card looks like the following:
Match 1
Cubs 10/14.50 
Mets 10/15
Rockies 10/15
Arizona 10/11.50
Kansas city 10/14.5
Baltimore 10/10 
Toronto 10/15
tWINS 10/15
Clev 10/11
Seattle 10/11.50
cross fingers for the rest....
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