2014 Major League Super System with write up

I am starting a new system which I expect to be the most profitable formula ever. It is a system that requires no thinking just betting based on my tracking system. My minimum unit is $5 and my max will be $160 aka big money bets. Feel free to do your own back testing or follow along. We will bet everyday as follows: We will use the most reliable power rankings available for all teams. We will only bet a team in the top 15. My research indicates that is where the big drop off begins. If a team starts off in the top 15 but at the end of our match is out we will not include them in our next round of betting which I will call "matches." We are betting not so such much on the teams but that the books will get a good team wrong 1 out of every 6 times they are listed as a dog.  We only bet teams that are dogs are even money in the top 15.

For example on opening day we will begin match 1 with a bet of 5 on each dog that is a top 15 team. If they win we collect and they are eliminated from out match. If they lose the next time that team is listed as a dog or even money we double the bet to 10. If we win we collect, if we lose we wait til that team is a dog again and bet 20 and so on all the way to a big money bet of 160. If we get all the way to the end and lose that ends the match and we tally our wins and losses and start over with a new match and latest power rankings.  If a team lose 3 big money bets in a row or 4 out of 5 they are removed from our system as if they are in the bottom 15. At that point we assume the books have them tracked perfectly and cannot overcome such perfection, We continue throughout the season til we have no teams left to bet on and that ends our season whether the real season is over or not. If all teams have been eliminated then all good teams have been figured out and no mistakes are being made so no point trying to beat excellent capping. We are betting on minor book mistakes along the way as teams ebb and flow. I expect huge profits. We will keep up with Match units and total units for the season. Lets "Play Ball"

 

Good luck sir! 

AS an example of how system would work using exhibition games as examples only. There is no way to power rank teams in spring training anyway because of the way teams play the games. So don't try this with real money til season starts.  Assuming your min was 3 units and max was 96. here is how you would have played today. Playing all dogs and  ignoring power rankings. In spring training we will call ties pushes for simplicity.

1. Atlanta 3/3 loss (-3 units) we will wager 6 next game they are dogs

2. Texas -tied (push) will wager 3 next game they are dogs

3. San Diego 3/3 loss (-3 units) will wager 6 next game they are dogs

4. Houston 3/3,75 (-3 units) will wager 6 ....

5. Toronto 3/3 (-3 units) will wager 6.....

6. Minnesota 3/3 win( +3 units) they are out of match

7. Philly 3/3.60 loss (-3 units) will wager 6

8. Colorado 3/3.60 (-3 units) will wager 6

Excellent day for the books we are -15 units after day one but tomorrow is another day. Lets see who the dogs are tomorrow and see if the books can stay focused! My guess they will start to trip up even in spring training

 

Not sure what rating service you will be using, but I looked at last year's top 5 teams going into last season. I used the projected season win totals for these 5 teams. All five had 90+ wins by their names. I looked to see how they did out of the gate as a dog.

1. Det LLLW
2. Was LW
3. LAD W
4. Cin W
5. LAA W

It worked fine for these teams, who at the time were considered the top 5 in baseball. Hard to tell who teams 6-15 were.

Do all top 15 original teams have to clear/lose before you "reshuffle" for the next top 15? I noticed that some of the better teams might go 3 weeks between being a dog so one could be waiting awhile to get a final verdict on that individual team. Please elaborate further on how or when the season ends.

Thanks.

GL










































GL

Do you play any dog in the Top 15 even if it is against another Top 15 team?

GL

Very good question. I like to call each series of games a match. If a team wins they are out we collect our winnings and go. If a new team pops into the top 15 we start them at original unit level unto they play out. Once we run out of teams either because they have all won or they have won or lost their big money game (we don't go out any further than 6 games in a row win or lose) then we have finished the match. We reshuffle the deck and see who is in our new top 15 and start over at our lowest unit . We don't eliminate a team unless they fall out of the top 15 or have gone all the way out and lost the big money game 3 times in a row or 4 out of 5. I expect to  last through the entire season but you never know. I like to call it a match because we are really betting the odds makers not the individual games. If the Yankees are perfectly capped by the odds makers and get all the way to game six (the big money game) and lose 3 in a row or 4 out of 5, then we only play the top 14 teams if the Yankees are in the top 15. We will continue on until there are no teams left in the top 15, at which point our season would theoretically end, even if the season is progressing. I haven't decided which poll to use yet, and would like any feedback on who is believed to be the most accurate.

The answer to your second question is yes we play the top 15 dog even if against another top 15 team. I think most of the bets early on will come from the teams ranked 6-15 since they are most likely to be a dog. The beauty of the system as I see it is the odds makers have to perform perfect handicapping for 6 straight games or I win. However I can foresee that some teams are so well known and closely followed like the Yankees or red sox that they may be able to consistently be correct  6 out of 6. If they can prove it to me then I surrender and continue on. We are also going to hit some big hits when we are a large dog against a top pitcher and get lucky. I projected your short match listed above backtesting last years top 5 and it would have been +35 against the books for that match. Not bad.

Also as a experiment I am running the system on spring training using all teams because ranking is impossible. There were two 3 unit plays today Baltimore and the White sox since neither had been a dog yet. Baltimore has already lost and the white Sox are losing. You are already down -18 units to start, you may asset! To the contrary the match is just starting and the cappers are going to have to cap correctly 5 more times in a row or I will win.the match. There were no 6 unit plays today since all dogs yesterday that lost were favorites today. Remember there are thirty teams and each team plays 162 games almost daily so I expect plenty of action. However if when the year is over and I find the action was too spread out I will adjust next year and probably increase my unit size as long as we are profitable as I expect.

I will probably start off using the covers power rankings but I will be looking for a rating service that adjust there rankings regularly. I am also considering using my own rating system as the season progresses based on a combination of consensus rankings among several rating systems and computer rankings. I may also at my discretion eliminate a borderline team ranked 14 or 15 if I can consistently see they are being tracked accurately and insert another team, but I will have to do that by feel and don't expect to even try that until after the all star break if at all

POWER RANKINGS

To simplify things I am going to go ahead and list my top 15 power rankings to start the season. these would only change if one of these teams goes through a rash of injuries in spring training etc. It is a consensus of several polls taking into consideration last year and off season moves. Im sure it will change before we get to match 2

1. Boston Red Sox

2. St Louis Cardinals

3. LA Dodgers

4. Detroit Tigers

5. Wash Nats

6. Tex Rangers

7. Oakland A's

8. Atlanta Braves

9. Cincinnati Reds

10. Tampa Bay Rays

11. Pittsburgh Pirates

12. New York Yankees

13. Kansa City Royals

14. Cleveland Indians

15. Arizona Diamondbacks

so that's who we will be beginning match 1 with on opening day

Also to address another issue you raise. What if all games have played out but a top team is favored everday for 3 weeks and we cant finish the Match. In that scenario we are probably dealing with a top five team and so they are likely to remain in the top 15. If that should occur we will probably reshuffle the top 15 and begin Match 2 without that team and then add them at the bottom when they are finally finished with Match1. I don't see any reason we couldn't  have 2 matches going at once in that scenario. I will try to make each bet clear that it is a match 1 or Match 2 play etc..

Thanks for the input

Also just to update our experimental spring training Match 1. Baltimore lost and the White Sox won so today would have been a push since both were even money. Baltimore will be a 6 bet next time they are dogs and the white sox will be eliminated from the match

Current Exhibition total Match 1 remains -15

If I were to use a power ranking system it would be ESPN's..

Continuing with Exhibition experiment there are a lot of games tomorrow. 3 would be $6 bets Houston, Cleveland, and San Diego all the rest below would just be entering the match with $3

The odds changed somewhat overnight more to my liking on some games and some dogs went to favs so since we are experimenting at this point I am revising todays plays

You should consider running this thread thru the systems section of this forum. A lot of people over there love this kind of stuff, and may be unaware of your thread.

GL

I thought about that Lucky but in time they will find me once the word gets out that I have cracked the code so to speak. I'm going to run this for a full mlb year just to have a track record of my system from beginning to end. I'm also going to reserve the right to tweak it along the way and since this is completely free but valuable information, I don't really care to disseminate this to the world just yet. Might be worth something and you will be lucky to have learned about it while it was free.

By the way the book makers were a little sloppy today. I'm not going to be too critical because its spring training but we won all bets today but one for a tidy +22.50. This match may be over sooner rather than later.

For those keeping track we are now +7.50 overall and St. Louis moves to a $6 bet next time they are dogs. 

Its just spring training but just sit back and watch the results for yourself.

 

Interesting. I'll be watching and rooting for you. It's a chase variant system. 

WE shall see. That is why I am posting this for all to see. The more back testing I have done the more I like what I see. I am taking away some of the fundamental edges Vegas possesses against the average gambler. I concede the odds makers are very good just not perfect and perfect over the long haul they must be to beat this system. I don't even case about individual games or matchups. I am betting the books get it wrong 1 out of 6.  I am also betting within my bankroll. If I were playing with a bigger bankroll, I might try to stretch it to 7 in a row, but I think 6 perfect games is enough, based on what I can tell. I will reserve the right to tweak monor details but th e principals remain the same.

Back to our experiment in spring training. There only 4 plays today in Match 1, all are even money, unless the odds change like yesterday.

Tampa Bay, Pitt, Arizona, Cinncinatti $3 each

+22 units

 

 

I'll be watching closely.

GL Kemosabe

Correct exhibition units +7.50...my bad

Jeffthehat was my inspiration for this system. watching how his basketball games played out. It made me realize this was mathematically sound based on the books making mistakes, especially with the smaller conferences in cbb. Ill be following his baseball system as well

Nice day today! 

Yes sir. Books seem to having trouble capping these spring training games. Guess I should expect that.  Anyway its playing right to our wheel house as we are +9 for the day.  We are now +16.50 units so far in our little spring training experiment. Can't wait to see who is play tomorrow as we eliminate 3 teams and Arizona will be a 6 bet next time they are a dog.