- By KO/TKO -120 inside distance prop -215 for parlays
Chase Hooper inside distance (ko or sub) -210
- By Submission at -135 great value, Hooper just beat old man Guida in grappling match recently. 17 year age gap is largest in UFC history
Joshua Van ML -150
- Van is the man. Saw him fight live at the sphere a few months ago, I see him owning Durden in the standup
- lot of value on the U2.5 rounds, Van rounds 2/3 finish
Bryan Battle ML -175
- Battle is the real deal. For those of you that haven't seen it, please go online and lookup Bryan Battle UFC Paris post fight speech. Amazing.
- Both these guys are great strikers, we should be in for a treat with this one. Battle missed weight by 4 pounds, coming in at 175 while Brown made the cut to 171. Bryan should be the much bigger fighter in the octagon tonight and will absolutely use that to his advantage. However, I do think there are two ways to play this fight. Battle inside the distance (ko/sub) or Battle/U2.5 rounds is one outcome I see, whereas Randy Brown's win condition leans towards a decision. Not that Battle couldn't win a decision - I just see him being the far likelier fighter to find a finish in this fight.
More to come - BOL this evening everyone
Hail State
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Great card - let's get it gents
Kennedy Nzechukwu ML -525
- By KO/TKO -120 inside distance prop -215 for parlays
Chase Hooper inside distance (ko or sub) -210
- By Submission at -135 great value, Hooper just beat old man Guida in grappling match recently. 17 year age gap is largest in UFC history
Joshua Van ML -150
- Van is the man. Saw him fight live at the sphere a few months ago, I see him owning Durden in the standup
- lot of value on the U2.5 rounds, Van rounds 2/3 finish
Bryan Battle ML -175
- Battle is the real deal. For those of you that haven't seen it, please go online and lookup Bryan Battle UFC Paris post fight speech. Amazing.
- Both these guys are great strikers, we should be in for a treat with this one. Battle missed weight by 4 pounds, coming in at 175 while Brown made the cut to 171. Bryan should be the much bigger fighter in the octagon tonight and will absolutely use that to his advantage. However, I do think there are two ways to play this fight. Battle inside the distance (ko/sub) or Battle/U2.5 rounds is one outcome I see, whereas Randy Brown's win condition leans towards a decision. Not that Battle couldn't win a decision - I just see him being the far likelier fighter to find a finish in this fight.
- Movsar is going to dominate Aljo. Incoming 30-27 unanimous decision
Themba Gorimbo ML -160
- Prime Luque would win this 9/10 times but sadly we are way past that point. Could see Themba winning by finish or by decision
Dominik Reyes ML -350
- Reyes should absolutely turn Anthony Smith's lights out, but I see a lot of value on Reyes by decision at +400. Could see it going all 3
Landwehr/Choi U2.5 rounds -170
- Should be Fight of the Night once it's all said and done. I see violence here
Alexander Volkov +310
- Dog shot here but all the value is on the Volkov side imo. Volkov lost their original matchup in 2021 to Gane but Volkov has put in the work and vastly improved since then, whereas Gane has been wholly inactive since getting choked out by Jon Jones. Lean Volkov by Decision as well
Kai Asakura ML +225
- Another dog shot here in the main event but from all the tape I have watched, Asakura is the real deal. I think Pantoja does his thing and wins this fight a handful of times out of 10 but I believe Asakura wins more than the 30.7% win probability the books are giving him. Will also play Asakura by KO/TKO +325
- An alternate play would be Pantoja inside the distance (ITD) lean by submission as he certainly has a grappling advantage over his Japanese opponent. That being said, I see Asakura keeping this on the feet and becoming our first UFC champion from Japan
Props:
Van/Durden fight ends in R2 +400
Van Durden fight ends in R3 +725
Bryce Mitchell wins in R2 +1000
Bryce Mitchell wins in R3 +1400
Kron Gracie by submission +1400 (longshot) - his only win condition
Hail State
Movsar Evloev ML -225
- Movsar is going to dominate Aljo. Incoming 30-27 unanimous decision
Themba Gorimbo ML -160
- Prime Luque would win this 9/10 times but sadly we are way past that point. Could see Themba winning by finish or by decision
Dominik Reyes ML -350
- Reyes should absolutely turn Anthony Smith's lights out, but I see a lot of value on Reyes by decision at +400. Could see it going all 3
Landwehr/Choi U2.5 rounds -170
- Should be Fight of the Night once it's all said and done. I see violence here
Alexander Volkov +310
- Dog shot here but all the value is on the Volkov side imo. Volkov lost their original matchup in 2021 to Gane but Volkov has put in the work and vastly improved since then, whereas Gane has been wholly inactive since getting choked out by Jon Jones. Lean Volkov by Decision as well
Kai Asakura ML +225
- Another dog shot here in the main event but from all the tape I have watched, Asakura is the real deal. I think Pantoja does his thing and wins this fight a handful of times out of 10 but I believe Asakura wins more than the 30.7% win probability the books are giving him. Will also play Asakura by KO/TKO +325
- An alternate play would be Pantoja inside the distance (ITD) lean by submission as he certainly has a grappling advantage over his Japanese opponent. That being said, I see Asakura keeping this on the feet and becoming our first UFC champion from Japan
Props:
Van/Durden fight ends in R2 +400
Van Durden fight ends in R3 +725
Bryce Mitchell wins in R2 +1000
Bryce Mitchell wins in R3 +1400
Kron Gracie by submission +1400 (longshot) - his only win condition
Been debating all week, may play Shavkat by sub +210
I rate Garry very highly but Shavkat is 18-0 with 18 finishes for a reason. I do lean the fight going semi-longer, I could see Shavkat getting the finish later in round 2 or mid round 3. I think a lot of Garry's win equity is in a decision as I do not see him finishing the fight here
Hail State
@handycat
Been debating all week, may play Shavkat by sub +210
I rate Garry very highly but Shavkat is 18-0 with 18 finishes for a reason. I do lean the fight going semi-longer, I could see Shavkat getting the finish later in round 2 or mid round 3. I think a lot of Garry's win equity is in a decision as I do not see him finishing the fight here
You're telling me! He closed -700 on the live line. I hadn't felt that good about a decision in a while and our guy gets robbed. Was on a 4 fight W streak too
Hail State
@BrittanyWVU
You're telling me! He closed -700 on the live line. I hadn't felt that good about a decision in a while and our guy gets robbed. Was on a 4 fight W streak too
Yeah I’ll never bet ufc again ! That’s a lot of money they stole from me Last leg on a 7 pick!!!!! Clear win too. I seen him close at -650 and didn’t hedge because I was confident he had it. Even the other guy said he didn’t win the fight
@tsarvis12
Yeah I’ll never bet ufc again ! That’s a lot of money they stole from me Last leg on a 7 pick!!!!! Clear win too. I seen him close at -650 and didn’t hedge because I was confident he had it. Even the other guy said he didn’t win the fight
inside distance prop -215 for parlays
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