October Stock Talk IV

CRDC keeps pushing to 12.99.  hasn't hit 13 yet. 

MVIS announced a development deal with an unnamed asian consumer electronics company.  the whisper is that it is Samsung.  The market is treating this like it isn't real at the moment.  but with the MOT deal and this new deal (whoever it may be), it certainly points to a good future for the stock.  MVIS is up about 4.5% right now, but is still cheaper than it has been in months.  jump in if you're interested

re financial reversal:

Rumor of a huge merrill write down 
Like 5 - 15 billion

Koaj,

I saw that too. I dont see how it WONT happen, foreclosure demand is high and the deals going across the auction mean negative write downs for all these firms.

Gunners, they keep running it up there..until it crosses 13 and the volume gets over 1M, I am pleased but not sold on it running heavy.

You guys want a really COOL read, but deeper than even I comprehend, check this out-

Options strategies

I am reading this stuff in awe..these guys are the real movers of the market..quantitative and system generated futures and options strategies.

For all I know, I could spend another 10 yrs understanding the more complex strategies and workings of the market.

wall - i talk to a lot of these quant guys and they are way above my head

the options and derivitive traders are some of the smartest people out there

did you see the CFC news this morning? offering prime rates to subprime lenders who are in adjustment trouble...a pending disaster

 

WSC,

I assume your talking about CRDC?  Is so, what do you mean "you are not sold on it running heavy"?

 

Grid,

I meant that the volume isnt there to run it MUCH higher..in order for us to get it back to that 15 area, bigger fish need to be playing the stock. With only 500k in volume it isnt attractive enough even though it is on the day highs list, but the volume isnt strong enough YET.

Koaj, I have a mixed feel about that news and yeah I read it on CFC. So they are going to take a hit on converting these ARM loans, but I can see WHY they would do that..the company would rather take a hit on the conversion and service the loan rather than have it go into foreclosure and them take a BIGGER loss on the books.

I think it is a calculated decision and since the paper isnt moving in the secondary market, I think they were forced to try and save the book value on their loans.

Stock went higher, then got hit..I bet the market looked closer at the true hit it will have and took it lower after considering that..

either way - shareholders will have Angelo's head soon enough

a good portion of homebuilders report this week...SPF on the 26th i think

Koaj,

That might explain why Citi upgraded them...thinking they get a run after earnings, OR to bail before it happens.

I cannot see what the guy could do differently..the company is stuck with these mortgages that wont move, and if they dont take action they could lose them to foreclosure which would be a killer for the stock..so yeah it is a tough decision but I think it is a GOOD decision to be honest.

Here is a really good site, I am quite impressed-

Options

A few things that are nice..you can see the DELTA on the option which means the ammt the option moves for every move in the stock..so in this example the option moves anywhere from 40-70% for every 100% move in the stock (or 40 to 70 cents for every dollar move) and implied volitility on each contract.

WSC Don't forget quants were responsible for  the LTCM fiasco, and possibly the current subprime meltdown. So as smart as they are, they forget one slightly (enormous!!) problem:the human factor.
 

PS thanks for the links, they are interesting!

Vermeer,

No problem...and yeah I think the quants that failed were computer generated if I recall..meaning computers buying and selling based on spreads and when the market got hit they got hit.

Same goes for the systems who got nailed on the secondary mortgage market..tons of selling came and the systems got wacked..then just like the wimps on the options exchange, they pull bids and spreads got monsterous.

CRDC 13.1

CRDC just cracked $13 in a big way.  Somebody just bought a butt load.

Keep her going fellas..

FSLR is a MONSTER claycourt, dont you go and sell into this strength. Use a wide loose stop..

CRDC 13.5

Vermeer,

Notice how the support isnt there in any size..they can drop the stock 20 cents with 1000 shares.

Until some larger hands come into the game they cannot push it up in a large way..

I am thrilled with the action, but the volume and trade size show that it can only go so far as is.

Yup,

 I agree... just keeping a watchful eye on it. I wish I had a slug of FSLR and RIMM  as well !!!!

Too bad they are pricing options on FSLR, DRYS and BIDU and RIMM at monster levels.

That is why my mistake on monday is a KILLER..they blew the IV off on the options and that was the time to buy...damn it.

  Live and burn...and wow, that saying is applied literally to anyone in San Diego at the moment.Hope that gets under control out there...sheesh.
  There will other opps  between now and Christmas methinks, this volatility is going to present them to us.I missed Monday as well, but hell I was up all Sunday night  listening to old Phish records...
 
  What  is the thought process going deeper into the week?

Vermeer,

I say you buy the stocks which are moving on weakness due to OTHER stocks..

Tomorrow will show weakness on AMZN, JNPR and tech stocks, so you purchase stocks like FSLR and DRYS when the market comes in.

Anyone see that FSLR sell recco by Merriman Ford? haha what a two bit firm..

sgp wall?made a quick couple of bucks today,overall  not as good a company as other pharms,but off a pullback like yest. i like to jump in,make a buck ,hold some  a little longer,,,,as far as countrywide,mozzillo[spelling?] is fuckin dead,,,my sources are telling me this thing is gettin bought,,the name? wells fargo,,,that is what the experts in the desert are telling me,fuck wrong industry,,gambling mode still,,i mean that is what the street is telling me, lol......i see u guys always talking about first solar,,holy shit,, what level have u guys got in at,,,look at the chart on this mmmmrrrrffrrrrr......options through the roof