October Stock Talk IV

Good idea to start another thread fellas.

My view is there will be a trading opportunity if they kick the crap out fo them market on Monday to open, or at any time.

What I think many are forgetting is yeah the market was down 300..but damn it is off historic highs here, and a 3% drop is PEANUTS. But that said I know we have money flow and it wont turn into a bear market over night.

I had to REALLY hold my fingers from buying some November calls on FSLR or DRYS, but good thing I waited to see how she finished on the day, right on the lows..that normally spells more selling.

I also have to agree on some banking stocks, but more so the lenders..I think IMB and CFC could have trading bounces, but again I want to stress that prices seem low, but their business have been decimated, not only on the revenues side but severely on the PROFITS side..margins are gone..outta here.

So yeah CFC and IMB look cheap on a chart basis, but cut those earnings and see how cheap they look..not cheap at all.

I see some China and internet and tech stocks and I really see some severe cause for caution..after the first of the year especially.

It is a lame duck year which is terrible for the market, I think this is the year we get knocked down hard..

In the mean time lets try and make money however we can, long or short..one thing is for sure, the juice on options on these flyers is OUT OF CONTROL..which means it is time to get very nervous.

  I ask myself, what fundamentally has changed in the past 48 hours? Nothing, really. Except I may be able to buy the same stocks I wanted to own 72 hours ago, at a discount.
 
  We have known for some time that it will take many months for the extensive damage of the mortgage fiasco to be fully appreciated (if that is the right word;more like depreciated). But a market so easily spooked can also present opportunities. There are dislocations in many areas...having been in defensive mode in some respects for months, taking the occasional flier, I still like the same sectors I liked before Friday, for the same reasons...

 That being said, I still feel we will be in a recession, a word that pundits have been doing all sorts of acrobatics to avoid saying, in 2008.The main cog of much wealth creation in the past decade is finis for the immediate (and beyond) future. Not sure what crap the pols can gin up that would make anyone really think flipping houses is a great idea any more, nor should they.But they will promise ever increasingly stupid "solutions", count on it. The hacks are working overtime on it right now...

 We could see that globally oriented American companies can prosper without much participation of the American worker or consumer.                                                                                                                          
 

 

This is off topic but on topic of your comment.

In the past I have done some real estate investing (down here before the market went NUTS) and I am on some email lists for foreclosure firms that go to auction then sell to investors or others.

Within the last 2 to 3 months some screaming bargains are hitting the market at auction, when in the past that would not be the case..either banks were buying them back and selling into a hot market or a RE investor would buy.

Today I got a listing for a STUNNING house in Scottsdale in probably the top subdivision in the city, one level 3500 sqft, 16 ft ceilings blah blah...

House was attempted to sell for 1.2 M by an obvious owner who was leveraged to the head..

Well this is being offered at 725k..which is an AMAZING deal..so much that I want to get it..haha

Point is that even in great areas the market sucks..and there is probably more to go, much more before things might start turning.

The greater the foreclosures and resets, the less home owners are spending outside the home..the effect of the situation will start to show at this christmas season..so beginning of 2008 is probably a good time to be starting to short or watching a long position very closely.

  If the Dow opens 600 points down I will be buying with both fists!!! That is, if the stocks I have been wanting to add to are part of the bath.

  By the way, is anyone else ready for Alan Greenspan to just shut up? That old fool flogging his stupid book...sheesh...really getting on my nerves, especially as he is a main culprit in this on going story, at least in my book.

 

Agreed concerning Greenspam..most definately agree.

He is the cause, Big Ben is just the sap left after the shipwreck.

I found the artcle by Dvorak on Marketwatch very interesting and full of sense regarding the direction of Microsoft.everyone knows how close Buffett and Gates are (that foundation gift says it all)...I continue to accumulate MSFT...

Geez..what a terrible day to not wake the hell up in the morning.

DRYS goes to 103.50 in the first minute of the open..now at 112  

Piles,

Yeah..it was a legit trade. Son of a b@tch.. I have been dragging my butt out of bed before 6AM lately and today I didnt and it cost me huge.

The 100 contracts are over a double, the 110 and 115s are about a triple.

I am quite pissed..the trade I wanted and I over slept.     

Grid,

The results probably arent a catalyst..the CC will be..but if it sells off based on PAST results, fine with me, I get a better deal on extra shares.

I am crying here... the DRYS 130 calls were 1.20 low on the day, now at 8 bucks....holy crap.

Chance of a lifetime on that 12 pt drop and I am sawing logs..  

Stock getting hammered pre-market.

CRDC 12.5

boiler-room,

SGP? Why? So many pharmas out there to go for SGP?

CRDC doing great on LOW volume..if they cross 13, the volume probably comes in.

Trade of the month up in smokes yesterday..man I am going to bitch about this for a year..DRYS up another 5 bucks today.

Financials dragging the market down big time..

IMB and CFC had big time reversals, oils keep getting hit and refiners..

In this environment you might see a negative market but many positive sectors.