November Stock Talk II

  This is the most interesting area of the entire forum in my humble opinion. I gotta fever, and the only prescription is...more cowbell, and more info on the markets!!

I just want to help and make money..thats it.

POZN got their data submitted for Trexima..no rush to buy since the decision wont be until April.

Plus the upside is capped due to lost time. With the last rejection and this delay till April, that is a YEAR gone for Pozen..plus the other side of the 'script is off patent next year.

Still a good day for a few holders of POZN.

 I think it is a market on a respirator. It is an old market for one, it has yet to mark to market the real total damage of the subprime fiasco, and politically/militarily, it rests on the unrealistic expectation of some sort of stasis in Iraq/Afghanistan. The Iranian situation is also just getting noticed as the serious issue it is.If Iran implodes or explodes, supply disruption is guaranteed, and we will be happy to pay $5 to $7 for gas if when can buy it.

 The fragility of the political situation, coupled with the very real possibility (I told someone certainty, but did not like the reception I got for that remark...it was not unpatriotic, just objective, but it opens a can of worms) of defeat in Iraq in 2008, and you have many many reasons for all the jitters.

 PS I got an order for MSFT filled at $37.

 Hope not. I have made money on every trade I have made of MSFT (all three! LOL).I will store the little I got in the vault and look at it sometime next year, maybe add to it should it decline in any real sell off.

 I think I will indulge in some vodka tonight (I have  a "frozen  concoction " ala Buffett (Jimmy that is) of Pineapple/Orange/Banana juice and laced it liberally with...Absolut vanilla. Sounds fey, but tastes fine in sunlight (and moonlight I hope).

 Have a good evening...I have a date tonight with a nurse, and I hope among other things she can lead me to more in depth contacts regarding CRDC.She knows the doc who did the surgery here with their device.

  As you often say, Cheers!! CC

Lots of good posts as always. On energy policy and alternative energy development or rather the lack of it. Let's face it big oil ( XOM, ect...) writes the US energy policy, tax breaks for big oil companies exploration, drilling, not collecting royalties owed to the US government from big oil companies, ect... XOM is about a 500 billion dollar company mostly from oil and gasoline. Those executive bonuses could suffer if alternative energy is subsidized to create new industries to start competing with their profits from fossil fuels. Of course, the big oil profits have been down last quarter from the so-called falling "crack spreads", but that certainly will not last and Americans will see the sticker shock at the gasoline pump sooner rather than later from the inflation/95 dollar per barrel oil caused by the falling dollar,  globilization/free trade creating unprecidented historical demand for fossil fuels (and unprecidented pollution for those who are concerned about the Earth's environment). Throughout history the countries that have had the highest manufacturing output have enjoyed the highest standard of living, rising property values, ect...Is the Bush Administration largely responsible for selling out the future of the children of the middle classe in the USA? After all, politics that include present and future energy policy, the war in Iraq, record federal deficits, declining manufacturing output, inflation/decling dollar, tax cuts, ect... rules ours and our childrens lives and future whether we realize it or not. The short term effects of a weaker dollar does help many stocks in the market, the profitablity of many US companies doing business in countries whose currency is gaining strength versus the dollar, ect..., but the long term effects of a weakening dollar is selling out the future of the average citizen and average children in America. The incomes and standards of living are rising in America, but if we exclude say the top 1 % or top 10 % of the wealthiest Americans from those statistics, there is no way the incomes and standards of living are rising for most of the hard working middle class Americans and their children.  Hopefully, there will be good leadership in America someday. Hopefully, the combustion engine is replaced by a cost effective clean technology alternative. Hopefully, the wealthiest individual Americans and corporations that write the laws of the US government start caring about the long term effects of the laws, policies, ect... and not just the short term greed and short term profits at the expense of the profits and the standard of living for the future generations.

 To quote a friend of mine:

 "You can hope in one hand, and shit in the other, and see which fills up faster."

 Sorry, sounds terribly cynical after such a rousing speech, but...

 It is a nice sentiment, but just that. (And unfortunately for us, everyone of any importance in either party is in the 1 % financial group you seem to think controls the world.)

  China would, this very moment, buy every single solitary drop of oil on earth, and pay $200 a barrel...hell, they would pay $300 of more, whatever it took. And they would leave hoping for a cleaner engine to the westerners walking to work (who then at least would have a truer, smaller footprint, carbon or not)

  And I do not exaggerate when I state that.They would do so, would gladly do so, and would be very right in doing so.Why? Because as distasteful as it is, we and they live in a petrochemical world, and they are highly aware of that essential relaity,  one that wishing will not make go away.

claycourt, thanks for sharing your nice short trade on CFC, keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated. What do you think about UNG as a trade on the winter and a possible cold weather forecast? Is UNG a trade, like oil, on the weakening dollar?

 And not to sound utterly bleak, I would strongly plug as I have in the past the work Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Inst.

This is from his article in the Economist...


.Full practical use of the best 2004 efficiency technologies in all applications would halve American barrels burnt per dollar of GDP, to a quarter the 1975 level.

The average cost: $12 per saved barrel. Saved natural gas and advanced biofuels could replace the remaining oil for $18 per barrel. Thus eliminating American oil use by the 2040s costs $15 per barrel — one-fifth its 2006 price. It surely follows that getting off oil — thus abating 42 percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions — will be led by business for profit.

Grid,

Looks like IMB should drift lower. They have earnings in a few days, I am crossing my fingers that they dont drop their pants.

Speaking of drop pants, damn when the breaks are bad they are really bad. So instead of making over 1k, missing a trade by 20 cents, maybe less I get hammered when FSLR opens the next day. Supposedly the Germans are going to ease up on subsidies..tried to bail a few times for small losses but the spread is so wide and dropped so fast I didnt have the opportunity, and I even got up early...lol  

Sold the options, lost about 2k on the trade.

Back to the drawing board..

 July,

I can honestly (and forlornly) state I am not rich..although I suppose a Burmese would consider me so.

 Oil is a necessity from now to 2040  at least. I do not think, given that the American public has done nothing but buy larger and larger vehicles in the decades since the oil embargo, (while making cetain that oil companies know they are unwelcome wherever they attempt to drill or refine), that they can blame anyone but themselves (OK, and both political parties) for failing to come up with any serious oil policy, period.

 

 


 

 

july,

News was from the yahoo FSLR board. I didnt find it at Scottrade or on yahoo or Reuters etc..but that isnt shocking since the source is in Germany..

Now I gotta dig out of the big hole and make a positive trade for the day..

Now they reverse it 6 pts from the low..

SOB..

Huge reversal for CFC...shocked to be honest.

Somthing tells me this positive market wont be lasting, that selling returns..lets see if I am right.

Almost all options I own are under water.

Hell, I look at BUD and the first article I see posted 30 minutes ago is a gloomy one.I am glad I note every trade I make, and why, cause at least I know what  imbecility overtook me when I did so.

 Comcast options are burning a hole through my wallet big time.