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November Stock Talk II

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #26
Vermeer,

That is a great point. We subsidize a product which SUPPORTS a combustion engine, yet we wont properly subsidize solar or wind like other countries are. That proves again that we as a country are cheap person to the lobbyist dollars.

Oh and we TAX Brazilian ethanol to the tune of 100% what the hell is that about?

Claycourt, if you get filled on the sale, I will be out of my call position too..

So lets RUMBLE....


 
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Posted: #27
Why are they holding off normal natural economic cycle? WHY? Who are they trying to protect?

They are selling our assets at 20-50% discounts..our ASSETS..screw inflation and credit market conditions, plus they have been doing this for 5 plus yrs. So the recent developments might warrant the flooding, but why have they been doing this since pre-2003?     



  Well, they did it prior to then to deal with the Sand L bailout, the LTCM crisis etc etc.and it worked, although it takes a very long time to rid oneself of bad assets.
 I do not mean to come across as apologist for them, but they do know the economics of the equation.This time they really believe it preferable to prevent a totla freeze of corporate credit than to flood the place with money.They may be right, I do not know.But they chose that policy fully aware of the damage they were doing to the USD.

 
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Posted: #28
I already have cold feet waiting for 157s. 
 
Let's face it, I fouled up by not taking it in the 155s.....I was waiting for dips, and doing that means waiting forever.
 
Can't get cute with a monster.  You get on any way you can when it looks doable.
 
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Posted: #29

 What are opinions about the end of the day and the end of the week? What trades are you all teeing up?

 Do we finish the week with a rally or ?
 
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Posted: #30
Vermeer-
 
50/50 either way.
 
I'd look to buy weakness.....that is your best bet.  A FINANCIAL BAILOUT PACKAGE is coming.  When?  I wish I could tell you.  Probably during or immediately after a total market meltdown.
 
You CANNOT go wrong buying MSFT on weakness....to me, MSFT caught in a panic selling meltdown would be gold getting long.
 
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Posted: #31
Yeah I would stick with the good names..the MSFT/CSCO/GOOG etc..even gulp DELL.

I needed another 20 cents to about 157 to get out of my calls, but the market reversed there. Did you bail?

Vermeer...problem is that 5 yrs ago there was no credit crunch, so why did they start the policy back then?

To be honest if you look back to when Clinton exited, that was the highs vs the Euro...me thinks the FED started once Bush got into office.  
 
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Posted: #32
Just don't have the cajones to wait for 157s when I should've entered at 155.
 
Bailed out at 156.5642.
 
Bought 156.1873.
 
37 cent gain, 28% of it to Uncle Sam, will put the tiny profit down on the college football game tonight.
 
WSC,  I did you a favor, man.  Since I bailed out, you'll get your fill for the Nov 150s.
 
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Posted: #33

 I was hoping to see it dinged today, but it never did, not from the start. I wanted it around 34.Never got near it.

  I think the jobs report will be massaged numbers by the way.Especially after today.They will fake em up as much as possible.

 I may go long on MSFT regardless. Sits on too much cash to worry  much  about.

 The volatility of this market gives me serious pause before going long on any but the safest stocks. In fact I was closing positions out, just not fast enough.

 On the positive side, isn't part of the bet that 2008 will generate such political pressure on Ben to cut (to try and avoid recession, that to me is already in the cards)?

 



 
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Posted: #34
Yeah, WSC, I bailed out.  I forced that trade, totally.  Hideous discipline.  Appalling.  I had 155 in the sites, waited for a pullback to the 154s, never got it, got mad, forced my way in at 156.1873, and sweat the whole time. 
 
Bad discipline.  Am lucky the trading gods didn't punish me and let me slide with a few bucks.  Usually they ain't so kind.
 
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Posted: #35
A guy told me VMW. (VM ware could end up like google anyone know bout this stalk?
 
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Posted: #36
Good job bailing..the DOW is starting to crumble again, I think you timed it nicely.

The FED cannot keep cutting like this, the more they cut the more they are showing how weak the economy is..

Anyone notice the 10yr back to the year lows??
 
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Posted: #37
problem is that 5 yrs ago there was no credit crunch, so why did they start the policy back then?

 Recall the panic after 9/11 ? I will review a few articles around and see of course I could read Greenspan's tome and hear his spin for all his blunders. But I just don' have the time or stomache for Greenie...
 
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Posted: #38
Vermeer-
 
I agree that the numbers tomorrow will be lies, as they always are.
 
But if they are not jimmied up, and MSFT takes a spanking tomorrow, I will be getting long it, for sure.  Why?  It's a monster, technically sound, and there's a FINANCIAL BAILOUT PACKAGE coming that will touch off a short-covering bomb, especially if there is a panic selling meltdown tomorrow.
 
I'd love to see a total meltdown tomorrow.  That would be great.  Could get long MSFT and maybe FSLR.
 
I am sure some sort of BAILOUT PACKAGE is in the works, and I want my sorry ass in 1-2 long trades before it hits.
 
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Posted: #39
I was hoping to be wrong, but looks like I am not.

Hate getting so close to a fill then get killed..stock dropped so quick.  
 
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Posted: #40
WSC-
 
Yeah, man, thanks.  Looks like your down 400 day is coming 'round the mountain, which makes me think there won't be a panic sell-off tomorrow if jobs numbers are bad.
 
But my FSLR trade was poor discipline.  I've been scalded enough in the past to know better than to force longs in that situation.  Funny, I made money on it, but am pissed at myself for the lack of discipline.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #41
They closed the bond market and the sellers drifted over to pound the market...400 could easily happen in the last hour.
 
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Posted: #42

  One thing I do like (and have for some time) and will continue to like, is SKF.I do not think people realize how long it is going to take the banks etc to finally get a handle on the mess...many years, if previous history is any guide.

 
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Posted: #43
WSC-
 
Good hit with IMB at 12.4.  Hold that one for the BAILOUT PACKAGE, for sure.
 
You may get north of 16-17 when the BAILOUT PACKAGE is released.
 
Good one.  Hold it.
 
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Posted: #44
Is there a reason beyond bailout  proposal that IMB is the one to bottom fish with?

Getting it at 12.4 looks good

 Europe adn Asian markets are going to be shaken methinks.

 

 I
 
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Posted: #45
No doubt about it.
 
If the jobs numbers are hideous tomorrow, AND there is a panic sell-off, there'll be all kinds of talking heads calling for a BLACK MONDAY crash.  That will be the cue to get long for a trade these 2 names:
 
MSFT
FSLR
 
Won't be easy, which is why it is the right thing to do.  The easy thing would be to "wait and see."  Then you're sitting on the sidelines when the BAILOUT PACKAGE comes.
 
 
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Posted: #46
We've bounced off 13,600 a couple of times now in the Dow.  Interesting to see if we finish the day above that.
 
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Posted: #47
Vermeer-
 
For a "trade," IMB is strong.  Why?  HUGE, HUMONGOUS SHORT POSITION.  This goes off like a bomb if shorts are squeezed.
 
To play the financial crisis for the long haul, I am seriously looking at FHN (First Horizon).  It is a bank, which protects it somewhat from the latest housing fiasco.  For those young 'uns in their 20s just married, doing the kids thing, FHN is almost a must add for an IRA.  I don't know how old you are, but I think FHN is a winner after the housing crisis is over.....but the BIG return may not be for another 5-10 years.
 
I only have 3 "long haul" holdings:
 
GTLS (winner for sure)
CRDC (HUGE upside....you know this one)
SYY (looks dead with the oil horrors, but an EASY winner if oil stabilizes)
 
FHN may get added to this mix.  But I am old and do not have time to wait 10 years, so not sure.
 
IMO, there is no better way to profit from the recent housing dump than with getting long FHN.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #48
I like IMB at these prices because they are not ONLY a lender and they didnt get involved with the CFC dirty mortgages..the worst IMB did was ALT-A loans, which are really "no-doc" loans and the numbers of mortgage in arrears for ALT-A loans is much lower than some of the other stinker instruments.

IMB reversed HARD..some strong selling. I wonder if there was some rumor out there..I dunno. 

One other thing..I am smart enough to know this sort of selling here means more tomorrow.


 
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Posted: #49
WSC-
 
Goddarn, man......thread is less than 3 hours old and 48 posts.
 
Monday-Friday, man, I think you're about to challenge every other room for the title.
 
Well done.
 
 
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Posted: #50


 Got it CC and WSC...just did not know much about them in particular.So you think IMB may be lower tomorrow if the sell off continues?

 I hope to be around in 10 years but of course no guarantees exist in life.You will be around in ten years CC if you keep tippling Vodka.



 I have a long term perspective whether or not I make it very long at all..

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