JULY STOCK TALK

Yeah, man, we got a taste of this oil fcku back in the 70s.  I remember it well.

 

What's sad is that it was a wake up call, and we hit the snooze button.  Well, this time it ain't going away.  We are so late for work that there ain't no way we can talk our way out of it.  We are walking to the gallows cause of our gd "laissez-faire malaise."

Geez Louiiize.

 

What in Sam Houston happened to coal/agricultures/steels/solars/rails yesterday?

 

Just looked at Arch Coal and figured it was a mis-print.

 

This was on HUGE volume.  Anyone know wtf happened?  I know this crap was technically overbought, but it all just got shellacked.  Must've been some serious redemptions?

After seeing this, I am not so enthusiastic about the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trade today.

 

Looks like mutual funds are bunkering down and are going to sell anything with a gain to raise cash.  That's got to be the reason, given that it happened as soon as the 2Q ended.

 

This is VERY BEARISH for SP 500.

I see.

 

Read some crap on it over at marketwatch.

 

To me, the China threat was also exacerbated by the likelihood of redemptions as investors throw in the towel this 3Q and just head for the exits.

 

I'd say the woosh down capitulation day with peeps jumping out of windows likely happens in the Q3.

The window jumping is coming, but I have no idea when except to say "likely this 3Q."

 

My plan is just to be ready every day and basically do very little until it happens.

 

I'll also make it easy on myself by just buying SPY (SP 500) common with every cent I have available.  I think if I "try" to pick cetain ticker symbols, I will inevitably screw it up.  Broad market...............keeping it simple for my sorry ass.

From a technical standpoint, the window jumping day will then get re-tested later on, and that will be the litmus test.  If you're still long, you will be holding your breath on that "re-test day."

 

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.  It is harrowing and takes time off your life, for sure.

Yeah, whole world knew that was coming.  Whole world also knows US NFP will be atrocious.

 

Dicey day, man.

 

I'd say the "easier" trade would be for a NFP in line, no real moves right at first, and then piling on the momentum.  Momentum could be vicious short covering or vicious selling into the ealy close.  Whichever, it probably doesn't get de-railed.  Then, close all positions ahead of weekend.  Don't need the aggravation of being long/short anything ahead of a 3 day holiday weekend..........just way too much gd stress.

I don't even want to be short this weekend.

 

I will be happiest with my money safely hidden in the ground....don't even trust banks.  Everyone is out to get me.

-62 K.

 

In line

And anyone with a brain also knew the April and May numbers were lies.

 

This July number is a lie and will get revised down.

 

I totally expect selling today.

I mean June number.

 

"It's all been a pack of lies."

Today:

 

Selling?

or

Short covering?

or

Push?

 

One thing is for certain, there damn sure won't be any buying.....

Pretty ho-hum day considering ECB, NFP, pre-holiday, pretty much the entire world is 100.00% bearish, sky rocketing oil, hideous economy, worst credit mess in decades, lay-offs, etc.....

 

More I think about it, it is truly shocking that the SP 500 held up today.  Shows how powerful short covering can be, and also shows that massive short interest is more explosive than dynamite.

 

Just going to drink my sorry ass off this weekend and wait around for peeps to jump out of windows so I can get long SP 500 "for a trade only."  Since so many are bearish, I have a feeling I will wait forever on peeps jumping out of windows-----probably won't happen until some media clown starts yappping about "how the worst is over," "maybe time to dip toe in water," or "maybe time to start nibbling."

 

Cliches.................................