***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

Quote Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Primetimeboys- As of now I see the winner coming from the following group
bodemeister, alpha, union rags, dullahan, Hansen, creative cause
Now I don't think Dullahan will run as well on dirt so I would lean to downgrade him off the top line. Alpha is a tough call because he is a small horse. He has had his training regimen interrupted and now he draws post 11. The horse has had some serious gate issues in the past and he will be the 1st to load on derby day with 150000 strong. Hansen I am getting rid of because I don't think he can control his speed going mile and a quarter. Creative cause is just a tough read with all the equipment changes and big bounce in his last. The horse has huge upside and if he runs back to his best he can win this thing but horses who run a new top and bounce to not fair well in the derby

This would knock my most likely winner down to union and bode

Now what I like about union is his thorograph form. He paired up his top from last year already twice so far this year. I know this horse has more in his tank and unlike pletcher/gemologist i see him running his top number in the derby. It just comes down to his trip.

Bode is obviously the fastest horse. I think he will rate but how far off I am not sure. I am also not sure he is nearly as good rating.

El Padrino and Gemologist are both going to run solid races. I do not think either is fast enough to win and most likely not fast enough to get second either but possible with the right trip. I think Gem will take a lot of money.

I like Daddy knows best as a possible winner but he looks like such a plodder. He wasn't very fast a two year old but he has steady improvement in his career. If he is still improving he could win.

So bottomline if I had to pick a winner today at 5-1 or 6-1 I would take union rags. I think he will run a new top in the derby but I just question his trip. If he gets the right trip and the pace is decent(which is what everyone believes it will be) Union will be the winner. I think Bode is the only horse that can beat him but he has so much going against him

Quote Originally Posted by fatroll07:

We can argue that Lep is not the right jock for the job and you could be right but the man is on fire. He is winning everything. He took a lot of blame for the ride in Florida and he will be out to prove all the naysayers wrong. He can win

Quote Originally Posted by CleeK111:

There are several hot jockeys riding in the derby...usually they are too thats why they are on the horses. I have been looking over which jockeys are doing good and at what post positions so far at the downs. I think it may be a good sign to read how certain closers or fast horses run and with what jockey.

One of the biggest factors I will be looking at the next couple days is how these horses have run in warm weather. Note it will be 90 degrees in very humid weather on Saturday. It hasnt rained for days and it will be very hot. Weather says chance of rain...10-20% for Fri and Sat but it will be brief if any at all. (im from louisville)

Listened to an interview given by Toby Turrell a clocker for tvg and other horse sites. He said he noticed Union Rags sweating profusely in the morning workouts...morning workouts with weather in the high 70s low 80s this week. A few trainers confirmed that is how UR is and thats what he does as a horse, but it hasnt been as hot as it will be this weekend. How much does this factor in not addition to UR but a couple of the others? Remember that it has been cool in California when some of these horses last raced and this is will be a climate jump. Will this factor or affect any running?

Im trying to bring up a few things to look at and hope some of you reading can provide some feedback.  Im fairly new to handicapping this being my first year doing majority of my own research, but have been following for several years.

Quote Originally Posted by fatroll07:

I don't think a jockey will make or break the race. I think post position and a horses cruising speed will determine the trip. I am just saying I dont think Leparoux is a bad thing for Union Rags and I am happy they ran into trouble in last because if not he would be 5-2 in the derby.
I should mention that although I don't like Gemologist to win the derby I can definitely see him in the money. He has a 98 beyer in last and two straight 2's on the thorograph form. I failed to mention that he is 2-2 at churchill downs which is huge. He will be in my exotics but not on my win ticket. He is just not fast enough but trip and fondness for track should put him in the top 5

Quote Originally Posted by LosEsco25:

Quote Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Primetime I think those are probably the right horses to use on top. I am not positive what I am going to do with the west coast horses as I thought the West coast produced some very good horses this year. Ill have another looks like a beautiful animal although a little on the small side. I can't imagine he is good enough to win from post 19.

HB when you get a moment confirm my friend request.

Quote Originally Posted by STLCard:

Quote Originally Posted by Zephyr_10:

Prime...
I haven't heard you talk about Rousing Sermon once, and in your last few bets posted for trifectas, exactas, you've got #7 horse in there. Did I miss something? And Rousing Sermon 50-1!?!