***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

We have some nice running horses this year...........thanks to Bodemeister, made it twice as hard to cap the derby. Baffert probably knew before the AD that his best shot at winning the KD was to have Bode there.

Havent forgotten about the other 2 horses that will challenge for the roses on May 5th...........Hansen & Union Rags.

  You are exactly right about the post position draw, it's ultra important.  I will stick to my pick Union Rags.  It was not the jockeys fault in the last race, it was only a matter of a very slow pace.  It's hard to run down front runners in stakes competition when they crawl on the front end.  And you know there will be a blistering pace in the big race.  You can't knock Bodemeister at all, he is awesome.  If they both draw well I will hammer UR and bet big exactas.  I personally love Union Rags and his jockey is pretty damn good too. 

you know alpha broke into the gate in the juvenile right?? thats a bit of an excuse. that being said he is not my derby horse. hes a hell of a horse but he loses dominguez for the derby and had every oppurtunity to blow right by gemologist in the wood but couldnt. i like to see the explosive turn for home when i pick my derby horses. smarty jones, barbaro, animal kingdom. 

The 1 thru 3 finishers in the Juvenile: Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause, all have a legit chance at it. These three are really nice horses. I believe this is the highest quality derby field I have seen in a long time, maybe ever. Horse for horse, there are so many quality 3yo's. I have handicapped all the eligible 3yo's, and had planned on betting one of the Juvenile horses I mentioned, but the horse I can not get over is Bodemeister. Secret Circle is a superior runner, Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint winner, I love this horse. Bodemeister made Secret Circle look like a farm animal on Saturday. There is no guarantee that he fires, but if Bodemeister runs in the Kentucky Derby like he did in the Arkansas Derby, none of the horses we are discussing will catch him.

hey prime time how about that horse that won the bluegrass the other day...he had a good late kick there ...i think he was like 10th at the top of the lane ....and i think that rider  knows a little about winning a few derbys and almost having a triple crown with real quiet and big brown...............

Gonna be an interesting 3 weeks coming up to the KD.........I keep looking at Gemologist, Bodemeister & Creative Cause...........I think its between these 3 horses.

Great thread PTB  After watching many of the preps on video, I have to agree CC can close on these frontrunners considering it should be a blistering pace (ie Hansen, Take charge Indy, and probably some other early burners) which should greatly compromise them getting 1 1/4 I think Hansen will be a great miler but he was fading there at the end as was Indy AND Secret Circle.

Like ALPHA over Gemoligist straight up but I think this race favors the faster CA shippers.  Besides BODE and your CC, watch out for Union Rags. He was by far the most impressive closer in all the video I watched, Jockeys that can navigate  all the traffic can rundown BODE if he goes too fast with Hansen.... Just my 2 cents.....

Here is a trend that has won past 5 years in the KD.........the past 5 winners of the KD has only raced 2 times since Jan 1st of the new year...........only 2 races under their belts before entering the derby...........this years horses in this spot are:

Horses going into the derby with a 100 or higher beyer figure:

PTB,

I know you didn't necessarily say Bode was as good as Point Given, but he has light years to go before he is even in the same stratosphere.

Check out PG before he stepped in the gate at Churchill.

https://www.brisnet.com/samples/Pedigree/5044.html

HB

I was looking at Big Browns races which he only raced 3 times before the KD & his beyer figures were, 91, 102, 110...........but that isnt what was impressive, what was impressive was by how many lengths he was winning those races.......by 11 1/4, 12 3/4 & 5 lengths. 

Ok PTB, some late night info digestation. I agree with you about Bode, it will be tough to crack that non 2yo racing trend, he had to win AD to qualify for KD, and thus, his value will go down sharply after that last GREAT performance.Plus, he will only have a 3 week layoff He could still win but............UR reminds me of POINT GIVEN in stature and with that closing style, I really feel he will be the one to beat, at pretty good odds at that(5-1) and he qualifies with only 2 races under his belt so far this year..Plus, his trainer has been preparing him for this precise RACE Says he's eating well, still growing, and training very well Physically, he towers over this field


     I don't know didddly about GEM b ut I know I like ALPHA more..
Besides obviously, CC, the other horse who may well come back and get us... fricken white boy, HANSEN. Something sneaky makes me feeel he will be a major player in the KD. Of course, he will be better at the Preakness distance but he did win Juve at Churchill

Finally. the DRAW will mean everything and will be worth recording to see how each trainer picks their PP so we can figure their thoughts about how this race will go down. We will all know alot more after that.  

crusher trainers no longer pick their horses post its luck of the draw. hansen has some history working against him too, since 1984 when the breeders cup juve was first run only 2 horses have won the juve and a triple crown race.... street sense won the 2007 derby...... timber county won the 1995 preakness.

Baffert decides to pass on the derby with Secret Circle..............

One thing ive noticed past several years is the horse that wins the derby didnt even hit a 100 or higher beyer figure like last years Animal Kingdom...........AK was getting better beyer figures in every race going forward tho...........

This derby is difficult to figure out & I know every year usually is but there have been easy years........I thought Silver Charm, Real Queit, Monarchos & Funny Cide were easy to pick the winner but this year is like the Giacomo year, but its does seem the past several years, the winner has gotten bet down big time, so maybe I will have to wait until the day of the derby to figure who I like 100%, right now its still CC & looking at Bode as well...........

13 days until...........

Going to be a great race with some fun discussion.  Ten horses or more could possibly be between 10/30-1, with huge shots of winning.

HB