***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

Gemologist is coming out of the #15 hole..........

Im liking Hansen, Done Talking, Daddy Knows Best, and Dullahan

If the pace is going to be set by Bode and Trinnieburg, Im going to love Done Talking.

by help his odds, I mean our odds

#15 for Gem won't help his odds. Very good post for the Derby.

6-1 looks spot on IMHO.

*******Mean to say I like #5 & #15 on top, not #11..........

dumb question ,but what would a wager like that run

Quote Originally Posted by QBUN:

dumb question ,but what would a wager like that run

awesome i like the bottom part of your answer Sir...no too much $$ out and could be a nice payout

will d lastpost be considered one of ur wagers or will u be posting all of ur wagers in one post?? just dont want to miss ur plays because with football, etc. u r spot on....GL Sir and thanks in advance

I believe the reason Pletcher doesn't win derbies is because the way he trains his horses. First off his horses hit their top numbers first off the bench. He doesn't look for improvement. He likes horse to run fresh and give them time off. This is not a good model for the Kentucky Derby. Yes maybe horses are running fewer preps then in the past but most of those horses are for trainers who tend to get steady improvement from their horses. Also we have not seen the horses who win the derby, preakness and then fail in the belmont. Why?? Because trainers like Pletcher doesn't prepare his horses to run for long campaigns they prepare their horses to run in 1 or 2 races. I always bet Pletcher first off the bench and usually second off the bench but I never expect a beyer or thorograph improvement from his horses after their first race off the bench. If gemologist has not run fast enough to win the derby yet he will most likely not win it. I am not sure about my angle on him yet. If you look at his one win with super saver I actually had him that day. It was a combination of slop, weak weak derby and a horse that was going to get the ideal trip. Now I can DEFINITELY see him getting an ideal trip but I do not think he is good enough unless the rest of the horses prove to be subpar. I mean you do not see Pletcher horses start their career at turfway. He then brings him off the bench in an allowance race and ships him up to Aqueduct instead of racing him in Florida Derby. I just don't like all the things surrounding this horse. Now I will probably have him on at least some of my tickets mainly because I don't really like the way Bode and Union drew. I think Union will have a lot of horses close in around him and he may be forced wide. Bode i am less concerned about but I would obviously prefer him outside of hansen and trinniberg. I still don't see eye to eye with most about the pace scenario. Maybe I am living in another world but I just don't see a ton of speed in this race. Triniberg does complicate the situation but I think Bode and Hansen are rateable. I see a low 23 and then something like 46 and change then 111.

Just read the thorograph and they don't expect Bodemeister to be anywhere near the lead. They actually have him 6 lengths behind trinniberg and also behind about 4 other horses. They do have him going at a very fast early pace of 22.27 s with hansen in second going 22.7. Only time will tell

That fast pace of 22.27 would be trinniberg

In agreement in favor of Gemologist. If Bode isn't the real deal (quite frankly looking at the form, if he is the real deal we're getting our first Triple Crown winner in my lifetime), Gemologist is the horse I'd trust the most to run the triple beyer speed figure needed to win this race.

.50 cent triples im all over it..heading hollywood park w/co workers to watch some ponies and wager on d BiG one...should e a nice day...GL to everyone

Primetimeboys- As of now I see the winner coming from the following group
bodemeister, alpha, union rags, dullahan, Hansen, creative cause
Now I don't think Dullahan will run as well on dirt so I would lean to downgrade him off the top line. Alpha is a tough call because he is a small horse. He has had his training regimen interrupted and now he draws post 11. The horse has had some serious gate issues in the past and he will be the 1st to load on derby day with 150000 strong. Hansen I am getting rid of because I don't think he can control his speed going mile and a quarter. Creative cause is just a tough read with all the equipment changes and big bounce in his last. The horse has huge upside and if he runs back to his best he can win this thing but horses who run a new top and bounce to not fair well in the derby

This would knock my most likely winner down to union and bode

Now what I like about union is his thorograph form. He paired up his top from last year already twice so far this year. I know this horse has more in his tank and unlike pletcher/gemologist i see him running his top number in the derby. It just comes down to his trip.

Bode is obviously the fastest horse. I think he will rate but how far off I am not sure. I am also not sure he is nearly as good rating.

El Padrino and Gemologist are both going to run solid races. I do not think either is fast enough to win and most likely not fast enough to get second either but possible with the right trip. I think Gem will take a lot of money.

I like Daddy knows best as a possible winner but he looks like such a plodder. He wasn't very fast a two year old but he has steady improvement in his career. If he is still improving he could win.

So bottomline if I had to pick a winner today at 5-1 or 6-1 I would take union rags. I think he will run a new top in the derby but I just question his trip. If he gets the right trip and the pace is decent(which is what everyone believes it will be) Union will be the winner. I think Bode is the only horse that can beat him but he has so much going against him