is TAPWRIT a Live Long shot for the DERBY ?????

Whats Up Brothers ????

Doubleup, I think he could be a live long shot, not sure he could win, but I will include him in exotics, there are a bunch of other live ones also, I think there will be big payoffs if you can solve the puzzle this year......

I like Mccraken a lot here (still waiting for post draw obviously), so I have to give tapwrit some consideration as well. But Mccraken will be among the favorites (though in the 20 horse field this could mean about 8-1 to 10-1), I'm sure there will be some bombs in the money to create five digit trifecta and superfecta numbers, good luck......

I agree....what's more Tapwrit has yet to run his race. Not sure if I will play as one of those I will play to win, but a very live under for me.

Note.....I just read an article on drf.com about how investor/breeders, including Robert LaPenta, a noted owner, have arranged a $1.2 million sale for the colt. 

Smoke, then fire?

Yes, well value will go up ten times overnight if this horse somehow wins the Derby!

I believe they are getting the deal done before the Derby. Remember when Baffert fleeced the guy who owned War Emblem a week before the Derby?

HOWZ...The biggest incentive for the new owners for Tapwrit to win is extremely high. The difference between the stud fee of a horse who wins the Derby and a solid horse with pedigree is about $75,000 to $100,000 per pop.

So if Tapwrit wins the Derby and covers, on average, 50-75 mares each year at an average of $125,000 per mare (vs. a stud fee of probably $25,000-$35,000 as a non-Derby winner, but with a good pedigree out of Tapit), the price difference is huge.

Note: AP Indy and Mr. Prospector covered around 80-100 mares per year. I read an article last year that showed that American Pharoah earned $20 million in his first year as a sire getting $200,000 per cover. X's 100 mares.

Bottom line is that I don't think the owners want Taprwit to tank.

Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

Doubleup, I think he could be a live long shot, not sure he could win, but I will include him in exotics, there are a bunch of other live ones also, I think there will be big payoffs if you can solve the puzzle this year......

Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

I like Mccraken a lot here (still waiting for post draw obviously), so I have to give tapwrit some consideration as well. But Mccraken will be among the favorites (though in the 20 horse field this could mean about 8-1 to 10-1), I'm sure there will be some bombs in the money to create five digit trifecta and superfecta numbers, good luck......

Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

I agree....what's more Tapwrit has yet to run his race. Not sure if I will play as one of those I will play to win, but a very live under for me.

Note.....I just read an article on drf.com about how investor/breeders, including Robert LaPenta, a noted owner, have arranged a $1.2 million sale for the colt. 

Smoke, then fire?

Good Luck Double !

Like him in the 2/3/4 positions ....

Can't decide between IWC and McCracken so I will do 2 separate .50 tri wheels. one with the 15/1,5,8,10,12,14,16,17 all three ways and one 17/1,5,8,10,12,14,15,16 all three ways($168). Hope I get your Tapwrit Sonneter and either IWC or Mccracken

IMO Tapwrit won't win but I'm definitely using him in everything underneath.
GL

Gonna fail to have a little action today but horses are foreign can you tell me how I would call that in little more specific ?

Which race is your above bet for 

If he's live is a debate(imo he's a good horse maybe good for a solid 3rd), but there's no question he's the value of the race. 

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

If he's live is a debate(imo he's a good horse maybe good for a solid 3rd), but there's no question he's the value of the race. 

If he doesn't lay an egg in the BG stakes, he's arguably the second or third choice at 7-1 right now. 

He's 28-1 as I type. 

Maybe he's had a bad day last time out? Personally I can't bet a horse in the Derby off a race like that. Maybe a G3 on the undercard I make a case to "throw out his last," but not in a 20 horse Derby. 

If he gets a great trip, I can see him winning and I'll kick myself for ignoring that value. 

GL dude 

The derby favorite is Always Dreaming at 4-1,Johnny V up and trained by Todd Pletcher. I like the 1 horse Looking At Lee, closes hard and if he looks sharp in the post parade i'm betting him over all and all over him $38. Gonna see a high paying exacta,tri.and super today. Thunder Snow has been racing in UAE,Great Britain and France and today he will get first Lasix because we allow that med. in the U.S.A. not familar with his connections but he could be dangerous.

Looking around, I saw a few experts who follow the sport (Joe Drape - New York Times, Joe Nevillis - Daily Racing Forum) predict Tapwrit to win today.