Belmont Park - 6/10

2 WP

6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. a couple real sizzlers in here should be out in front to set up yet again a potential crazy finish in one of these loaded turf dashes.  really like how this 5YO has been effective at 7/8ths and now cuts back to this 6F off a 99 fig last out at 7/8ths. just missed in this race last year and can get up in time at this shorter trip but he can't wait forever and can't get blocked. ran 101 and 102 at 5.5F and 6F with "good finish" in comments both times. four consistent maintenance drills since the last first time with Clement who is 23% 2nd off the break and 26% in turf sprints. others have popped some slightly higher figs but feel this guy is well within range and can mow them all down late if he fires and gets a decent trip.  1.00 units. 

7 WP

6/1 on the board. recency, pace, speed, distance. guy getting faded here by the peeps most prolly feel that last fig was way out of pattern.  it was. BUT, there was a major change which was the switch from folding up around two turns to a one turn mile. ran well in terms of passing horses around one turn as a baby. was also very close to a hot pace last out and gets a little cutback today he should do well with this 7/8ths IF he fires. had five weeks since last which i also like. stalk and pounce and wear em down late hopefully. 0.75 units.

7 WP

8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pace, pattern. relatively small field here for a G1 on turf but some solid gals in there. I am playing this as a potential pressure cooker up front with the 5 and 6 both trying to take the field all the way up front.  hopefully that creates an opportunity for a closer.  the 7 made her first start in America in an N2X where she started poorly, kinda loped around, and then really turned it on late.  maybe a key turning point.  they placed her in high level events four straight in France after romping in her first two but she fell apart in all four.  clearly something was wrong with her.  I'm on her here for the upset 2nd time off the break and off a 31-60 day gap (28% for Brown), with six solid drills between, and with a massive move up in class. it's possible she is coming into her best performance ever and that is why she is in this race. Castellano can break her from the outside and hang out in the back and see what she's got in the lane late.  i'll jump on to find out if she's good enough. 1.00 units.   

12 WP

6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. hoping this guy gets ignored on the board maybe he'll be 9/1ish. playing a continuation of the change in pattern to a one run, strong closer around one turn.  last two at 7/8ths facing tough horses he's been moving very nicely late after settling early and same jock back here and we get the one turn mile. got a few in here (including two favs) that like to get out early so rosario will let them do just that and make one big and sustained run.  will need to improve he's a 4YO with a new lease on life with the new style/distance and has been around two turns plenty of times so expecting him to be able to get to this 8F.  tough race we shall see. 1.00 units.

6 WP

8/1 ml. pattern, pace, distance, surface. taking a solid stab here and hoping this guy is ignored on the tote with all the "sexy" contenders. i see this group filled with legit and solid G1 turf males but I don't see any Flintshires in here.  i'm on this 6YO german bred that is a rock solid 9/15 lifetime and off a dud last out on very moist weeds. last out off a fairly long layoff, different pilot, and wet green and he missed by five in a G1. liked the way he moved on that turf rated firm three back and thinking he is here for that reason among others and also 2nd off the pine. don't see him too far of the pace either and ready to kick it in late. good distance for him. green should be firm saturday. racing post ratings suggest he's right there on speed with this crew and he also drops 8 lbs and grabs the meds. i'll take a shot and see what happens. 1.25 units.

belmont

3/1 winner

they're not letting me squeeze anything here it's not like those other gals were lollipops i figured 5/1 worst case.  open your eyes everyone she "only ran a 90 last out" and there is NO WAY she could be sitting on a peak performance.