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Reverse Late line movement

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



sorry sharky but its basically the same exact thing, the oddsmakers playing with the lines, because theya re taking a stance. Its funny how if you say the oddsmakers are doing something its got to be true, but if i say the oddsmakers are doing something witht he line its not true because you disagree with it.  That really is so funny.
Yup the books are gonna move off a key number of 7 on the pitt game and go all the way up to 10-/11 because they believe they will get all pitt action, thats taking huge chance they wont get all kc action since theya re passing some key numbers.
But hey you keep believing what you say is right and waht other people say is wrong.
When i get some plays i will post them to back up what i say, why dont you post some proof that what i say isnt true, besides your own opinion which i have already stated, means jack shit. You must think your sharp because you took a handle and created a website called sharkys den, that is funny. Probably dont have 2 nickels to rub together thou.

I said "theory"  about opening inflated lines, that doesn't mean it's true it means it is a  "theory"  you should look up that word and find out what it means.  

You're the one that's claiming you've been doing this for 30 years and you know everything there is to know about linesmakers and their methods.   

I have not once said I was an expert, pro or whatever.  I have not once said I was right about anything.  All I said is your fake line "THEORY" is bullshit and all hell broke loose.   

You've called us all idiots and assholes throughout this thread.  You've changed the subject and contradicted yourself several times.  You've told us all several times that if we don't agree with you then we should all quit gambling like you're some kind of betting genius.  

Then  THEN!  You have the balls to call us all know it all's!!!!!  

Put a bib on before you speak or you're going to get shit all over your chest.
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

Sharky, please post your qualifications that make your opinion right and mine wrong, besides your name being sharky?  Just using that name on a gambling website, shows what kind of phony you are.
Your opinions are so great, you couldnt even keep a blog open, nobody was going there for your info

Hey heres an idea, why dont you callup some big books and ask them if they do this? am sure they will tell you

Post your qualifications, I'm not the one trying to sell this you are.  Post your shit, you said you "wrote for big shops back east" or whatever the fuck you were talking about.  


 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


I said "theory"  about opening inflated lines, that doesn't mean it's true it means it is a  "theory"  you should look up that word and find out what it means.  

You're the one that's claiming you've been doing this for 30 years and you know everything there is to know about linesmakers and their methods.   

I have not once said I was an expert, pro or whatever.  I have not once said I was right about anything.  All I said is your fake line "THEORY" is bullshit and all hell broke loose.   

You've called us all idiots and assholes throughout this thread.  You've changed the subject and contradicted yourself several times.  You've told us all several times that if we don't agree with you then we should all quit gambling like you're some kind of betting genius.  

Then  THEN!  You have the balls to call us all know it all's!!!!!  

Put a bib on before you speak or you're going to get shit all over your chest.


You know sharky now your back pedaling.  I never claimed to be an expert on handicapping and lines. I have said it many times thru out this thread. If i was an expert and making millions doing this shit, i certainly wouldnt be on this site wasting my time away arguing with guys like you.
Yes your right i have no proof that the books are doing what i believe they are doing. Your right its a theory that i have developed from watching lines for many years. Right now its wroking and like i said maybe next year or the every after it wont work anymore. I believe that this is what the oddsmakers are doing with the line, just like you think the oddsmakers would cross some key numbers to make pitt a 10- and 11 point favorite because they want to trap bettors.  Thats your theory and you have no proof.
You should call somebodys theory bullshit unless you can prove it not to be true. Now if you can do that, then its another story, but all you keep doing is saying its bullshit because you believe it to be bullshit.
Am sure people laughed at billy walters when he said he was gonna bet games that a computer program made. Am sure those people arent laughing at the guy now, who was one step ahead of vegas.
But i guess in your pea brained world people like myself are not capable of coming up with a system, theory, angle or whatever else you want to call it.
You do know there is a forum right on this site for ssystems and strategies, dont you?  I guess those people are all full of shit, when they say there systems are working.
Why dont you thou keep your opinion about what i say until after a few plays get posted?  When they lose then you can say its a bullshit theory
 
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Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


Post your qualifications, I'm not the one trying to sell this you are.  Post your shit, you said you "wrote for big shops back east" or whatever the fuck you were talking about.  




yes 20 years ago, i wrote for some big bookies on the east coast. Was just a writer not a bookie, but those few years of writing i learned a bunch of things. I have zero reason to lie about this, yet some of you right away go on the attack saying am full of shit, yet there are clowns on this site pretending to be bookies, sharps and 10k or bigger bettors.
 
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Posted: #155
and one other thing, i didnt learn about this line move thing when i was writing for the book, and thats because there was no internet, so there was no live line watching online like there is now.
truth is the books are going to try and use every method they can use against the bettor to win their money
 
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Posted: #156

Just wondering,  is this always your reaction when someone disagrees with you?  

I bet it happens all the time, because you know everything there is to know right?  

The reason I called it bullshit is because it doesn't make any sense.  Plus, the several times you contradicted yourself, and then when you started bragging about your 30 years of experience and how you worked for a bookie.

All I hear is
jibber jabber jibber jabber jibber jibber jabber jibber ........................
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


Just wondering,  is this always your reaction when someone disagrees with you?  

I bet it happens all the time, because you know everything there is to know right?  

The reason I called it bullshit is because it doesn't make any sense.  Plus, the several times you contradicted yourself, and then when you started bragging about your 30 years of experience and how you worked for a bookie.

All I hear is
jibber jabber jibber jabber jibber jibber jabber jibber ........................


Sharky and neither does books crossing over some key numbers to try and trap bettors. Anybody reading that would call you full of shit, with no way of proving that. I didnt call you full of shit and in fact said what you are talking about books making up not real lines is basically what i have said, just in a differnt direction.
I posted about working for some books, because right off the bat i was attacked for being some rookie type bettor which am not. As it is right now, i wish that i never bothered to try and share something that i have learned, that happens to work pretty good. I thought people on the site wanted to win money from the books, no matter how thats done, but obviously i was wrong. This site it appears people just like to argue and not really want to win.
Look at this hirsch joker, he comes into the thread and just atatcks. Why doent he prove what i say is wrong? Because he cant.

Sorry if i insulted or offended you, it wasnt meant to be that way  good luck with your plays
 
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Posted: #158
It's like talking to a brick wall, are you even in the same conversation?  
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



Sharky and neither does books crossing over some key numbers to try and trap bettors. Anybody reading that would call you full of shit, with no way of proving that. I didnt call you full of shit and in fact said what you are talking about books making up not real lines is basically what i have said, just in a differnt direction.
I posted about working for some books, because right off the bat i was attacked for being some rookie type bettor which am not. As it is right now, i wish that i never bothered to try and share something that i have learned, that happens to work pretty good. I thought people on the site wanted to win money from the books, no matter how thats done, but obviously i was wrong. This site it appears people just like to argue and not really want to win.
Look at this hirsch joker, he comes into the thread and just atatcks. Why doent he prove what i say is wrong? Because he cant.

Sorry if i insulted or offended you, it wasnt meant to be that way  good luck with your plays

For the record I never said that, I said books sometimes inflate lines on games, especially on teams the the public likes.  I used Pit/Kc as an example because Pittsburgh is a team the public likes to bet.  

I KNOW your going to disagree with me here but when they set the lines they do take into consideration on who they think the public will be favoring.    Like new England for example, and the Colts in the last few years, those lines are always inflated.  

Oh but you've been in the business for 30 years so what do I know.  Oh wait, earlier you said you were in the business 20 years, then you said your were in the business 30 years, then it was 20 years ago.  What is it?   
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


For the record I never said that, I said books sometimes inflate lines on games, especially on teams the the public likes.  I used Pit/Kc as an example because Pittsburgh is a team the public likes to bet.  

I KNOW your going to disagree with me here but when they set the lines they do take into consideration on who they think the public will be favoring.    Like new England for example, and the Colts in the last few years, those lines are always inflated.  

Oh but you've been in the business for 30 years so what do I know.  Oh wait, earlier you said you were in the business 20 years, then you said your were in the business 30 years, then it was 20 years ago.  What is it?   


This is why this site blows sometimes.
Let me make it crystal clear for you.
I have been gambling that means betting on games for over 30 years.
I used to work for some books 20 years ago.
There is no reason for me to lie about this and since i have been on this site, not once have i gone around trying to act like a bigshot about anything. All i tried to do was give some people some insight on things i have learned during the course of those 30 years of gambling. You dont see me making posts about how great iam and how much i bet and how many rolls royces i own.  All i was trying to do was provide a little insight, but this site is just filled with haters who want to start arguements about everything, no matter what it is.
Instead of just waiting until some plays come up and i post them and they lose, you bash me for no reason other then you having a opinion of not agreeing with it.  Like i said prove to me that books arent doing what i say they are doing?
Also the thing about your pitt example, prove it that books are making a line at 7 but then pumping the spread up past a couple of key numbers in order to trap bettors. Dont keep saying thats what they do, because thats still just your opinion, unless you have some facts supporting that claim. Its funny your opinion is right on line moves and my opinion on line moves is wrong.  That really is downright comical.
I tried to be the bigger man and apologize but that didnt work, you still had to throw more bashes my way. Thats the kind of person you are, so go ahead and bash away, you mean nothing to me in my life.
Theres people who watch lines all day long and never leave their computers. Am sure these people have developed patterns that they have put together that they use to make plays, but if i say something like that, am full of shit.  This whole web site is just filled with haters.  Most are just mad at their lives so they want to take it out on others.
well continued success sharky with your plays, hope there all winners.
 
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Posted: #161
Oh and as far as inflated lines, thats just your opinion. You have no idea what the real number the guys at lvsc or the in house oddsmakers made on the pitt game. You are assuming they made the game and then pumped it up to 10-/11.  do you know that for sure? How do you know they didnt make the game 11?  you dont.  You see that stuff is just your opinion and nothing more.
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

Oh and as far as inflated lines, thats just your opinion. You have no idea what the real number the guys at lvsc or the in house oddsmakers made on the pitt game. You are assuming they made the game and then pumped it up to 10-/11.  do you know that for sure? How do you know they didnt make the game 11?  you dont.  You see that stuff is just your opinion and nothing more.

Actually there has been articles on that on this site and others.  They even had Linesmakers chime in on it.   Other sites,  all over it's common fucking sense that they inflate lines on public favored teams.

And for the record I disagreed with you on page one and you replied with  "Listen jackass......"   THAT'S WHY WE GOT THIS FAR!  
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



Hey jerkoff and you are the king of jerkoffs on this site, this post once again proves how little you know about anything, the hilton contest is indeed filled with pro bettors, not everyone but a lot of them are.
Fezzik who won the contest 2 years in a row is one example of a pro sharp being in the contest. 
Also in the real world where guys arent on the internet saying they are making a dime bet here and a dime bet there, a lot of squares dont pay 1500 to enter the contest.
Like i said already, you know jack fuckin shit about the hilton contest and the type of people entering it to try and win 300k plus.


You fell into the classic trap of believing the majority of participants in the Hilton contest are sharps by citing Steve Fezzik and his two wins in the contest. It's akin to saying the majority of participants in the World Series of Poker are poker pros because Phil Ivey is one of the participants. 

That is of course, like your ramblings in this thread, poppycock. All the picks combined since the contest's inception has resulted in a winning percentage worse than chance, there, by definition, making them square bettors/cappers. Because after all, a sharp would be someone who would be defined as a winner over the long-term which is why people follow the mirage that is reverse line movements in the first place. 

 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


Right on 

I do believe that they take sides sometimes, hence "trap games".   That SNF game for example,  the oddsmakers may have had a true line of 7 or lower on that game but they knew the public would slam Pittsburgh so they opened it to the next key number.   Knowing that they'll be hoping for a KC cover.  

I know you mentioned that, just throwing it out for some discussion. 

That is true. Furthermore, books will stay on a key number like 7 out of fear of getting middled from 6.5/7.5 moves either direction, which the sharps will pounds incessantly once the book moves off a key number of 7. 

So they'll take their chances on a side, sit on a key number like 3 or 7 and will have a rooting interest before game-time (but not so much so like they would if landed on 7 and they'd have to pay all bettors at 6.5 and 7.5. They are perfectly content for the game to end on the number itself and call it a day.  

They could also just increase the juice on the key number to reduce the exposure on one side while never moving the number.
 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


You fell into the classic trap of believing the majority of participants in the Hilton contest are sharps by citing Steve Fezzik and his two wins in the contest. It's akin to saying the majority of participants in the World Series of Poker are poker pros because Phil Ivey is one of the participants. 

That is of course, like your ramblings in this thread, poppycock. All the picks combined since the contest's inception has resulted in a winning percentage worse than chance, there, by definition, making them square bettors/cappers. Because after all, a sharp would be someone who would be defined as a winner over the long-term which is why people follow the mirage that is reverse line movements in the first place. 



first off you are wrong about how many sharp people enter the hilton contest, that is unless you actually work for the hilton, which of course am sure you do. I have yet to see you not come off as an expert in every subject posted on this site. At some point you always seem to chime in and give your expert opinions on things.
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



first off you are wrong about how many sharp people enter the hilton contest, that is unless you actually work for the hilton, which of course am sure you do. I have yet to see you not come off as an expert in every subject posted on this site. At some point you always seem to chime in and give your expert opinions on things.

Bottom line is the majority of cappers are not sharps. You don't need to work there or know the cappers. The record tells the tale. That's all you need to know. 

They release consensus picks from the contest every week. If those were sharp picks that the public could identify, they would be all over them. They of course are not because those picks hover around 50% and offer no better odds than an coinflip. 
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Bottom line is the majority of cappers are not sharps. You don't need to work there or know the cappers. The record tells the tale. That's all you need to know. 

They release consensus picks from the contest every week. If those were sharp picks that the public could identify, they would be all over them. They of course are not because those picks hover around 50% and offer no better odds than an coinflip. 


I never said it was all sharps, but there is indeed alot of sharps in that contest and the reason the percentages are low, is because of the bad cappers bringing the percentages down.  That contest is a great tool to find winners, if you know who the sharps are, which almost use an alias name.  Far as fezzik goes, hes a having a terrible year and just goes to show that even sharps lose.

I suppose leroys contest is filled with just squares also, being as you are an expert and know what sharps are entering football conetests.
And for the record the consensus record at leroys contest is 50-34=60 percent but am sure you are hitting way above that number, since your an expert gambler amongst all your fine talents.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/picks/leroys/college-challenge/
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


"They", being Vegas, are not trying to get you to bet any play (other than to limit their exposure from a large number of bets coming in over a short span on the other side). 

These books in Vegas operate on limited profit margins (between 5 and 10%) and want to maintain that over the long-term. There is no need to have 90% on the Steelers on Sunday Night Football so they can root for the Chiefs because they have inside info or the because the game is fixed and they know the outcome (obviously, this does happen on some level especially in college sports so I'm not saying it doesn't happen). They truly want balanced action but sometimes cannot get it and therefore are forced to take a side. 


you couldn't be more wrong
 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:



you couldn't be more wrong


lmfaooooooooo, thats what i have said in this thread
Hirsch you really should just leave this thread. Its funny how you think your opinion is so right and others are so wrong.  The line guru is what we should start calling you
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:



you couldn't be more wrong

lmfaooooooooo, thats what i have said in this thread

Interesting. So the books want a side. They not only prefer a side, but they want to 'herd' bettors on one side so they can have their desired side.

And how many games do they do this with? Do they do this with the 50/60 college football games a week they have offered? What about all the NFL games too? And when the NBA starts, do they take sides on all those games nightly?What happens when there is 100+ games in a night over all sports being bet on? They want sides on those?

The answer is of course, they don't. They will be forced to take a side because there will never be perfectly even action, but they are quite content to take all the loser's money and then charge the winners a vigorish for the right to make a bet.

I mean, do you really believe these books, all books because we can't just limit it to one book since we all bet at different books (if not with bookies themselves), run sophisticated simulations before all these games to create a line that squares will jump on so they can have the sharp side in all games? Do they have inside info on all these games that guarantees the outcome?

How did that work for them when in October, College Footballs top 10 teams were 41-12-1 ATS (77%)? College Football is one of the most square bettor sports going and those bettors will justify 20/30 and even 40 point lines when teams like Bama and LSU are laying those numbers against weaker opponents. It wouldn't have mattered what the lines were opened at. If they were within reason (even +/-7,8,9,10 from a true line) the square fans of those teams were at the betting window or laptop pounding their alumni or college they were enrolled at, justifying the spread the book offered. Or was this 77% loss rate a grand conspiracy to reel those bettors in at season's end and get all the book's money back and then some (when there is no guarantee those bettors will place the bet at the same book)? 

Bottom line, the books want balanced action on a slate of games and want nothing to do with sides. Why? That's called gambling. And they leave that to us (and they charge us for it too).  
 
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Posted: #171
Scal, i think your addressing the wrong guy. You need to address hirsch with your crap, hes the one that said you couldnt be more wrong.

Far as what i posted about line moves, happens on a very very limited amout of games and i have not studied in on college games at all.
Its just an nfl pattern.
I will say this if colts line keeps going down, the pats could very well be my next play  Last one was packers over vikes.   One thing right now that might keep me from playing it thou, is 20/21 point favorites are not an everyday thing.  So i will have to debate with myself if i want to go with this one.
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

Scal, i think your addressing the wrong guy. You need to address hirsch with your crap, hes the one that said you couldnt be more wrong.

Far as what i posted about line moves, happens on a very very limited amout of games and i have not studied in on college games at all.
Its just an nfl pattern.
I will say this if colts line keeps going down, the pats could very well be my next play  Last one was packers over vikes.   One thing right now that might keep me from playing it thou, is 20/21 point favorites are not an everyday thing.  So i will have to debate with myself if i want to go with this one.

The Colts line is wavering around 20/21 right now and will probably settle at 21. It is only Thursday. Whether it settles at 20 or 21, the books just want even action. I doubt it can close over a key number like 21.5 as even the squarest of the square would have trouble going over 3 TD's (although I'm amazed to see some books actually moved to that number for a short period but quickly adjusted). 

Anyhow, it's the Colts or no play for me. Since 1978, underdogs are 7-2 getting >= 20 points. I wouldn't even look at the teams with a line like this. Dog or nothing.
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


The Colts line is wavering around 20/21 right now and will probably settle at 21. It is only Thursday. Whether it settles at 20 or 21, the books just want even action. I doubt it can close over a key number like 21.5 as even the squarest of the square would have trouble going over 3 TD's (although I'm amazed to see some books actually moved to that number for a short period but quickly adjusted). 

Anyhow, it's the Colts or no play for me. Since 1978, underdogs are 7-2 getting >= 20 points. I wouldn't even look at the teams with a line like this. Dog or nothing.


Its funny how your trying to give me advice on betting the dog. First off you dont even fully understand the thing am looking at what with the line. Has nothing to with reverse line movement or any of your other mumbo jumbo. If the line settles at 20 or 21 then it will be a no play for me.  as far as your trend shit about dogs of 20 or more being 7-2 against, means jackshit. differnt teams, differnt players, differnt rules of the game and just a plain differnt game. But i can see now why your handicapping skills are limited, when you post useless crap like that. If thats how you handicap games, using useless trivia trends, you will never ever make a dime betting.
=Trends

do you get these trends out of the magazines the sportsbooks all send out every year before the season starts, because the sportsbooks just want to help the bettor to take their cash

whats next?  Are you going to tell me the colts are 20-5 against the spread when they have cornish hens before the game.

lastly address hirsch, hes the one that said you couldnt be more wrong
 
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Posted: #174
hey scal, next year when my mailbox gets full with all those useless trend books mailed to me for free from the books, instead of throwing them out i will save them for your square betting ass.

a trend and his money is soon parted

I wonder if you also use horoscopes and lucky numbers in your handicapping of games.


 
 
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Posted: #175
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

Scal, i think your addressing the wrong guy. You need to address hirsch with your crap, hes the one that said you couldnt be more wrong.

Far as what i posted about line moves, happens on a very very limited amout of games and i have not studied in on college games at all.
Its just an nfl pattern.
I will say this if colts line keeps going down, the pats could very well be my next play  Last one was packers over vikes.   One thing right now that might keep me from playing it thou, is 20/21 point favorites are not an everyday thing.  So i will have to debate with myself if i want to go with this one.

So essentially what you're doing is looking to fade certain line movements in the NFL.  At least that's what I gather from what you have said and I can understand that.  I just disagree with the fake line move thing.  
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