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Reverse Late line movement

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Posted: #1

For a couple of years this was one of the best handicapping angles I had.

The past couple of weeks it has been the kiss of death.

Was I crazy before?

WTF?

 
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Posted: #2
If you believe that the numbers you see on websites like sports insights are real, then yes you are crazy and should stop gambling.


why would any sportsbook want to teach public bettors to bet what the real sharps are betting.

You might say you have won like crazy watching those numbers, but the truth is long term you will be at about 50 percent if your lucky.

Sportsbooks dont want to help bettors to win their money, thats just plain retarded. An honestly it would surprise me one bit, if sports insights wasnt owned by a sportsbook or group of them
 
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Posted: #3
If you want real numbers, only way to get them is to now somebody pretty high up in a big sportsbook.  Not only will they give you the percenatages on the sides, but they will also tell you the amounts of money which are being bet on a side, which is way more important then the amount of people on a side.
 
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Posted: #4
Interesting points,
that said, when I talk to my friends and read the websites those numbers correspond with what I see at insights.
Also, the covers community with their picks is usually about the same. At sports interaction, they list their percentage money and it is usually the same.
That would be one big conspiracy.
Take the Packers yesterday when the line just starts falling before kick off.
6,5,4
it was crazy.
Part of me thought well, since 6 and 4 are essentially the same, who cares?
Maybe if it went to 3, but that line movement got me to raise my Lions bet at what turned out to be a terrible price.
Then the Lions came out and dominated only to have nothing to show for it.
Was the sharp money right?

 
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Posted: #5
I don't bet anymore but I am around a circle of friends that still do.  I had gotten to the point where I would let the line do the betting for me.

The Balt game was a great example when I saw 3.5 it screamed take SF as this should be a 3 point game, sure enough Balt covers.

In recent years with all the computer research given to a bettor Iam sure sportsbooks have a few tricks up their sleeve.

If you know certain movements will attract certain players to jump why not do it.  Back in the day line movement meant certain players placed bets.

Sportsbooks have taken this to the next level by moving lines just to mess with peoples thinking and attracting different bets.


 
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Posted: #6
Sportsbooks have taken this to the next level by moving lines just to mess with peoples thinking and attracting different bets.


God, I hope not.
scary thought indeed.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Interesting points,
that said, when I talk to my friends and read the websites those numbers correspond with what I see at insights.
Also, the covers community with their picks is usually about the same. At sports interaction, they list their percentage money and it is usually the same.
That would be one big conspiracy.
Take the Packers yesterday when the line just starts falling before kick off.
6,5,4
it was crazy.
Part of me thought well, since 6 and 4 are essentially the same, who cares?
Maybe if it went to 3, but that line movement got me to raise my Lions bet at what turned out to be a terrible price.
Then the Lions came out and dominated only to have nothing to show for it.
Was the sharp money right?



first off you need to understand that the books create fake line moves all the time, to mess with the line watchers. The detriot game was nothing more then a fake line move, to try and get people to bet the lions and it worked.  They do this all the time, since people are now online watching moves on their computers.

Secondly please provide a link on sports inter action that shows how much money was bet on a side, because no book would ever release those numbers in a million years, thats their life blood.
I think your confusing the percentage of bets on the money line with actual dollars being wagered. Entirely 2 differnt things.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



first off you need to understand that the books create fake line moves all the time, to mess with the line watchers. The detriot game was nothing more then a fake line move, to try and get people to bet the lions and it worked.  They do this all the time, since people are now online watching moves on their computers.




 
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Posted: #9
 If you're betting line moves you might as well just go to a roulette wheel & bet red or black 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



first off you need to understand that the books create fake line moves all the time, to mess with the line watchers. The detriot game was nothing more then a fake line move, to try and get people to bet the lions and it worked.  They do this all the time, since people are now online watching moves on their computers.

Secondly please provide a link on sports inter action that shows how much money was bet on a side, because no book would ever release those numbers in a million years, thats their life blood.
I think your confusing the percentage of bets on the money line with actual dollars being wagered. Entirely 2 differnt things.

You're kidding right?  They move the line based on money.  They don't give a shit what you bet as long as they're in the black at the end of the week.   They're not going to move the line to trick sports insights users on a bet.  

A reverse line move is when more money is bet on one side, it could be sharp money or it could be a whale that loses all the time.  
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Interesting points,
that said, when I talk to my friends and read the websites those numbers correspond with what I see at insights.
Also, the covers community with their picks is usually about the same. At sports interaction, they list their percentage money and it is usually the same.
That would be one big conspiracy.
Take the Packers yesterday when the line just starts falling before kick off.
6,5,4
it was crazy.
Part of me thought well, since 6 and 4 are essentially the same, who cares?
Maybe if it went to 3, but that line movement got me to raise my Lions bet at what turned out to be a terrible price.
Then the Lions came out and dominated only to have nothing to show for it.
Was the sharp money right?

6-5-4 alot was the public jumping on the wagon.
 
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Posted: #12
Cd i agree with most of what you said Xcept for fake line moves. They just dont have to.
 
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Posted: #13
With Green Bay as with Houston yesterday, I believe lots of players were waiting on a bigger number.  7 with Detroit and 3.5 maybe with Tulsa.  When it became obvious that wasn't going to happen, money poured in on the dog.  Just my opinion.
 
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Posted: #14
some of you guys should quit betting today, if you dont think the books create fake moves because of the line watchers.

laugh and think what you want, just was trying to give you guys some info as another tool to help beat the man.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


You're kidding right?  They move the line based on money.  They don't give a shit what you bet as long as they're in the black at the end of the week.   They're not going to move the line to trick sports insights users on a bet.  

A reverse line move is when more money is bet on one side, it could be sharp money or it could be a whale that loses all the time.  


you jackass am not talking about just sports insight users. Am talking about all the people who pay for line services and sit at their computers watching the moves. The paid line services, am sure something you dont have a grasp about.
Heres a newsflash for you sparky, when books are getting hammered on one side, sometimes they dont want to pump the line up to the way the game is getting bet because they dont want to get middled with sharp money coming in the other way, so they will create a phony move and move it the opposite way and then all the suckers like am sure you are, will jump on that move thinking its smart money moving the line and presto, they created action on both sides without middling themselves and in fact they create the chance to middle the bettors.
But keep thinking you know what your talking about dumbass.
perfect example of a fake move was last weeks packer game with minny, they kept moving it down, to suck people into believing the sharps were betting minny and didnt want to keep raising the packer line for fear of taking even more packer money.

Take a lesson in line reading before running your mouth off.

But hey go back to believing the numbers you see on sports insights are true, lmfaooooooooooooo
 
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Posted: #16

what guarantee do you have that whales are good at capping?

I always thought reverse line movement was just food for thought, I had no idea people were betting blind because of it

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

some of you guys should quit betting today, if you dont think the books create fake moves because of the line watchers.

laugh and think what you want, just was trying to give you guys some info as another tool to help beat the man.

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



you jackass am not talking about just sports insight users. Am talking about all the people who pay for line services and sit at their computers watching the moves. The paid line services, am sure something you dont have a grasp about.
Heres a newsflash for you sparky, when books are getting hammered on one side, sometimes they dont want to pump the line up to the way the game is getting bet because they dont want to get middled with sharp money coming in the other way, so they will create a phony move and move it the opposite way and then all the suckers like am sure you are, will jump on that move thinking its smart money moving the line and presto, they created action on both sides without middling themselves and in fact they create the chance to middle the bettors.
But keep thinking you know what your talking about dumbass.
perfect example of a fake move was last weeks packer game with minny, they kept moving it down, to suck people into believing the sharps were betting minny and didnt want to keep raising the packer line for fear of taking even more packer money.

Take a lesson in line reading before running your mouth off.

But hey go back to believing the numbers you see on sports insights are true, lmfaooooooooooooo

When the book doesn't want to pass a key number they start moving the vig.  Most people use line services to find the best line for the side they like.  Vegas doesn't give a shit about the $20 bettor looking for reverse line moves.   

Money moves the line, it doesn't matter who's money it is.   The public could be 90% on a side but if there is more money on the opposite side the line will move the other way.    It doesn't always mean it's "smart money"

Vegas is not going to "fake reverse" a line to try and outsmart a very small percentage of players.  


 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


When the book doesn't want to pass a key number they start moving the vig.  Most people use line services to find the best line for the side they like.  Vegas doesn't give a shit about the $20 bettor looking for reverse line moves.   

Money moves the line, it doesn't matter who's money it is.   The public could be 90% on a side but if there is more money on the opposite side the line will move the other way.    It doesn't always mean it's "smart money"

Vegas is not going to "fake reverse" a line to try and outsmart a very small percentage of players.  




they arent trying to fake out 20 bettors, which by the way add up to alot of money, but thats another subject all together.
They are trying to take out the stupid bettors who have lots of money, that think they are following sharp money.
Like i said, dont believe what am saying, thats up to you

packers vs vikes last week, was a true case of a line move head fake.
Did i say they do on every game?  no they dont.  They do it on games they are having trouble getting action on the other side or even on games they are taking a stand on{i suppose you dont believe that the books like to take stands on games either they just want 50-50 action}
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by dopalicous:




Thanks DOP, i knew there would be some other smart guys on this site agreeing with me
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by boberts427:

what guarantee do you have that whales are good at capping?

I always thought reverse line movement was just food for thought, I had no idea people were betting blind because of it



exactly
There is tons of stupid rich bettors in the world.  The casinos live off these chumps.  Everybody thinks because somebody is rich, that means they must be a smart gambler

Yes alot of guys strictly play these reverse line movements based off info they get off all these useless sites like sports insights. Yes the books want to give out their info, so more bettors cant win their money
a fool and his money is soon parted.

its like the guys who think they have a magically systems for winning
 
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Posted: #22
I'd venture to say that most of the time when a line moves a lot it's just public steam.Which sometimes includes smart money. No such thing as fake moves by Vegas.As i said, they simply dont have to do that. Now if proof exists that they do i'd like to see it. 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:



they arent trying to fake out 20 bettors, which by the way add up to alot of money, but thats another subject all together.
They are trying to take out the stupid bettors who have lots of money, that think they are following sharp money.
Like i said, dont believe what am saying, thats up to you

packers vs vikes last week, was a true case of a line move head fake.
Did i say they do on every game?  no they dont.  They do it on games they are having trouble getting action on the other side or even on games they are taking a stand on{i suppose you dont believe that the books like to take stands on games either they just want 50-50 action}

I don't know why you keep on bringing up that game when 67% of the public was on Green Bay with the spread and 66% was on Minnesota and the money line.  Of course they're going to move the line  down 

Now, I do agree with you that the books open inflated lines and sometimes want action on one side.   
 
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Posted: #24
This also happens in baseball with the Red Sox and Yankees, for example the Yankees will be favoured -180 and two hours before the game starts they will move the line down to -170, down to -160, -150 making you scratch your head thinking that there has been a key injury or something and end up not playing the Yankees due to that fact..then 3 hours later the Yankees will have ended up winning 15-2 against the Oakland Athletics. That situation has happened so many times i have lost count and as cd329 mentioned its a tool used to drive away Yankee bettors because it works when i was new to gambling if i saw a line move before a game i would jump on the underdog thinking i had found a gold mine but after the game would be a different outcome.

They only do this trick with ELITE sports teams, In the NBA the Lakers get this reverse line movement, NFL which ever team is currently hot during that year gets it i.e. the Packers this year...i remember the Colts getting this reverse line movement before game time a lot not this year obviously.  

Bookmakers use everything in there power to make money and if that means moving a line before game time to scare bettors away from a public team you dont think they would do that???

Final thing, To people who think bookmakers only want 50-50 action  you're living in a cuckoo land, if they wanted only 50-50 action then how comes there are 5/6 teams each week getting 65 % + action bet on them, are they that bad at getting 50-50 action???????????? Lol no way, its because bookmakers have opinions as well, they take risks as well. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

This also happens in baseball with the Red Sox and Yankees, for example the Yankees will be favoured -180 and two hours before the game starts they will move the line down to -170, down to -160, -150 making you scratch your head thinking that there has been a key injury or something and end up not playing the Yankees due to that fact..then 3 hours later the Yankees will have ended up winning 15-2 against the Oakland Athletics. That situation has happened so many times i have lost count and as cd329 mentioned its a tool used to drive away Yankee bettors because it works when i was new to gambling if i saw a line move before a game i would jump on the underdog thinking i had found a gold mine but after the game would be a different outcome.

They only do this trick with ELITE sports teams, In the NBA the Lakers get this reverse line movement, NFL which ever team is currently hot during that year gets it i.e. the Packers this year...i remember the Colts getting this reverse line movement before game time a lot not this year obviously.  

Bookmakers use everything in there power to make money and if that means moving a line before game time to scare bettors away from a public team you dont think they would do that???

Final thing, To people who think bookmakers only want 50-50 action  you're living in a cuckoo land, if they wanted only 50-50 action then how comes there are 5/6 teams each week getting 65 % + action bet on them, are they that bad at getting 50-50 action???????????? Lol no way, its because bookmakers have opinions as well, they take risks as well. 
If i liked the Yankees at -180 and it went down to -150. I would LOVE them then.
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