Posted:
#551
And thank you noodle, kid, monkey, vorvan, kauffee, barney, and Shango for the nice posts.
Much appreciated.
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World Cup 2018
Posted:
#556
A little MLS throw in game tonight for those hungry for more soccer....
Houston -.5 -102 vs LAFC
LA just played on Sat, have several players out still at the WC (including Carlos Vela), and I think they will sit players as they have a game this weekend at home.
Houston meanwhile hasn't played for 9 days, is at home in a nice spot - and their front 4 should run circles around LA all night.
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Posted:
#557
Thank you, mr van, for providing another winning day. I thought both games were a bit of a letdown, and I didn’t like the second game at all except for the stoppage time goal that got us the push.
i was puzzled at the trouble Sweden had all first half executing inbounds passes. Admit I know very little about the rules of soccer and I wondered if there was some rule in certain situations that you had to pass the ball to your opponent.
i guess we have a couple of off days then it’s on to the next round. Keep the good stuff coming. ?? ??
Posted:
#559
Up to date through round of 16....
OVERALL RECORD: Up 55.775 Down 43.21
Future Bets: (truncated)
Up 3.17 Down 2
Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89) - LOSS
Game Bets: (truncated)
Current Record - UP 52.605 Down 41.21
49. France PK and -.5 +102 (90 minute +stoppage wager) (3 units to win 3.06), France to advance -142 (1.42 to win 1) - WIN
50. Uruguay / Portugal draw +195 (1 to win 1.95) - LOSS
51. Spain -.5 and 1 vs Russia -125 (5 units to win 4) - LOSS
52. Denmark +.5 vs Croatia +105 (1 unit to win 1.05), Denmark to advance vs Croatia +210 (.25 to win .525) - WIN (overall)
53. Brazil / Mexico under 2.5 -102 (2.55 units to win 2.5) - WIN
54. Belgium -2 +225 vs Japan (1.2 units to win 2.7) - LOSS
55. Sweden PK +110 (90 minutes) (2.5 units to win 2.75), Sweden to advance +105 (2.5 units to win 2.625) - WIN
56. England Colombia Over 2 -102 (1.53 units to win 1.5) - PUSH
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Posted:
#560
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Thanks my man, great pick. Line movement in world cup soccer doesn't mean very much because so much of the betting comes from squares. In sports where sharp whales are a large proportion of the total bets made it means a lot more.
Thanks my man, great pick. Line movement in world cup soccer doesn't mean very much because so much of the betting comes from squares. In sports where sharp whales are a large proportion of the total bets made it means a lot more.
A toast to VAN
Thanks Lordzud.
There has been strange line moves in this tournament, and I am sure you are right about public betting.
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Posted:
#561
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:
Thank you, mr van, for providing another winning day. I thought both games were a bit of a letdown, and I didn’t like the second game at all except for the stoppage time goal that got us the push.
i was puzzled at the trouble Sweden had all first half executing inbounds passes. Admit I know very little about the rules of soccer and I wondered if there was some rule in certain situations that you had to pass the ball to your opponent.
i guess we have a couple of off days then it’s on to the next round. Keep the good stuff coming. ?? ??
I understand your confusion. At times, it did seem like Sweden was trying to give away the ball - but I assure you - that isn't a rule or their intention.
Interesting matchup coming for them with England.
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Posted:
#564
Brazil / Belgium
Getting this one up first as it is the game of the first two that I feel strongest about. I have been waiting for this exact spot since the tournament began, and even wrote about it in the first pages of this thread.
Belgium's coach is Roberto Martinez. I remember watching this guy coach Wigan Athletic in the EPL years ago seeing him play a unique style for the EPL - a 3-4-3 - or a 5-3-2 - the important part being that he played with 3 center backs and 2 "wingbacks". Basically nobody else in the EPL was using this at the time - and Wigan is a low budget club that was seeing success using it - even winning the FA Cup which is basically a minor miracle.
The premise of the wingbacks are that they are the fittest guys on the team, roaming up and down the pitch - serving as both offensive wingers and defenders. Used properly, it gives you width in attack and a very fortified defense against a slow buildup.
The problem it presents is the space left in behind the wingbacks when they go up in to attack - leaving a natural void in space in behind them if the ball gets stolen and a counter-attack ensues. In this case, speedy opposition can see lots of joy attacking those spaces on the flanks while the wingback is sprinting to get back in to position - and often you are only left with 3 to defend and outside in counter attack.
Brazil are the perfect team - the team that is best suited in this tournament - to exploit this style. You should see Neymar and Willian (or Douglas Costa if he is fit) attacking these spaces with success all game - attacking from the outside in.
Japan were lucky to be in the game with Belgium - played 10 times Belgium wins almost 10 out of 10 - Japan had clinical finishing on their two chances with a Belgium side fully exploited. Watch this video of the first goal and you will see exactly what I am describing so far - at the 7 second mark of the video freeze it. Japan has just picked up a turnover and is counterattacking. Notice the wingbacks not even in the picture - and 3 Belgian CBs left to deal with attacking Japanese. It is all over a mere 6 seconds later, and if you freeze it when the shot is taken, you only see 3 Belgians even in frame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJeJuc27ggE
The second Japanese goal is just unbelievable finishing - but if you freeze the video at the 26 second mark when he is shooting the ball - you can see just how deep the Belgian back 5 were sitting. But this is how Belgium want to be in formation against a built up attack.
Marcelo and Douglas Costa are back in training and will be gametime decisions - and I wish I knew if Marcelo was able to play or not - but in the end - I think Brazil handles Belgium with relative ease either way.
Brazil - the team everyone thinks of when someone mentions flair or offensive skill - is the best defensive team in the tournament. As I stated before, defensive teams win the WC - and Brazil has given up 1 goal in their 4 games and that was a controversial corner kick.
A couple of things that concern me are Casemiro's suspension - as he is probably the best holding midfielder in the tournament - but I have enough faith in Paulinho to come in and cover the role. I am always concerned about the lack of real size in the attack for Brazil, especially when I think there will be plenty of outside in attacking - but they seem to find a way to score without the use of headers.
Brazil will win, and they will win in 90 minutes.
Brazil +120 vs Belgium (4 units to win 4.8)
Brazil to advance vs Belgium -160 (1.6 to win 1)
Predicted final score Brazil 2 Belgium 0
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Posted:
#565
As a post script....
I doubt Belgium will switch up their formation for this match, but trust me - they are talking about it I am sure.
If they come out in something different that employs a 4-4-2 or something of the sort - I will be concerned about a 0-0 at the end of 90 - but not much more than that.
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Posted:
#566
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
As a post script....I doubt Belgium will switch up their formation for this match, but trust me - they are talking about it I am sure.If they come out in something different employs a 4-4-2 or something of the sort - I will be concerned about a 0-0 at the end of 90 - but not much more than that.
As a post script....I doubt Belgium will switch up their formation for this match, but trust me - they are talking about it I am sure.If they come out in something different employs a 4-4-2 or something of the sort - I will be concerned about a 0-0 at the end of 90 - but not much more than that.
Very nice stuff, Vanz. I have been waiting for your thoughts on this game. Like you, I have been more impressed with Brazil's defense than offense. When you watch them, it is as if they have the ability to push almost everyone forward when they attack, and then bring everyone back to play defense when they need to! Is this an optical illusion? Or do their players move so well in space that it appears like they have more players than the other team at all times? Anyway, taking a break from the dissertation on this 4th of July week/weekend and traveling with family. Wishing the best to you and yours.
Posted:
#567
France / Uruguay -
What a shame that Uruguay most likely won't have Cavani. Because with him, this would be a great match. Without him - I am afraid Uruguay will pack in and play very conservatively - with lots of fouls in what should be an ugly, choppy game.
I can only see this match as a one goal win for either side (unless there is some garbage time goal), and it will be a moment of brilliance from either side that wins it - if indeed there is a winner in the 120 minutes of normal time.
France has positional edges, but I'm not sure enough to break down a Uruguay defense that I think will be bunkered in from the start.
Look for lots of fouls, lots of meaningless possession, and possibly a moment or two that wins the game.
I think the line is just about right - France should be favored - but I think the value lies in taking Uruguay in 90.
Uruguay -106 vs France (90 minutes) (1.59 units to win 1.5)
Predicted final score France 1-0 AET
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Posted:
#568
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Very nice stuff, Vanz. I have been waiting for your thoughts on this game. Like you, I have been more impressed with Brazil's defense than offense. When you watch them, it is as if they have the ability to push almost everyone forward when they attack, and then bring everyone back to play defense when they need to! Is this an optical illusion? Or do their players move so well in space that it appears like they have more players than the other team at all times? Anyway, taking a break from the dissertation on this 4th of July week/weekend and traveling with family. Wishing the best to you and yours.
GL to you also BB.
Dissertation before sports.
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Posted:
#569
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
As a post script....I doubt Belgium will switch up their formation for this match, but trust me - they are talking about it I am sure.If they come out in something different that employs a 4-4-2 or something of the sort - I will be concerned about a 0-0 at the end of 90 - but not much more than that.
As a post script....I doubt Belgium will switch up their formation for this match, but trust me - they are talking about it I am sure.If they come out in something different that employs a 4-4-2 or something of the sort - I will be concerned about a 0-0 at the end of 90 - but not much more than that.
VZ - as always, win or lose, your analysis speaks for itself... I have been apprehensive playing this game until I see what Belgium is going to do. Does Martinez keep his system that while winning is getting exposed by inferior teams on the counter attack. Does he put Fellani in midfield. Does he push wingbacks back to traditional LB and RB roles and as you say go with a 4-4-2 or even 4-2-3-1 etc... Not sure it changes the analysis but I would love a bit more clarity on this before wagering
Posted:
#573
Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:
vanzack im assuming you are taking Uruguay +.5 correct??? uruguay is +360 in regular time
vanzack im assuming you are taking Uruguay +.5 correct??? uruguay is +360 in regular time
Yes. Typo on my part.
Should read:
Uruguay +.5 -106 vs France (90 minutes) (1.59 units to win 1.5)
Thanks for catching this.
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Posted:
#574
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:
Van- do you think Brazil wins it all at this point? +275 currently and pre tournament I think I saw them +475 or so
Van- do you think Brazil wins it all at this point? +275 currently and pre tournament I think I saw them +475 or so
I think it is a fair price.
Matchups will determine.
I am not betting them, but not betting against them either.
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Posted:
#575
Excuse me for 'hijacking' your thread, van, but I think these stats deserve to be viewed (& obv. this thread is well viewed) and it might be useful for you to learn as well going forward:
Couple of historical scoreline angles that I can't see being ignored...
(1) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 90 min 0-0 knockout result.
8 knockout games in and none so far. To me, Uru/Fra & Swe/Eng would seem to be the biggest candidates to end the drought. I think the other two games will deliver at least 2 goals each.
(2) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 2-1 knockout result.
There's been 26(!) of these results (17 in 90 mins; 9 after ET: the only WC of the 8 to not deliver a 90 min 2-1 result happens to be the only WC ever played in Asia), that's a rate greater than 3 per WC yet here we've had none with half of the knockout games done & dusted.
While history guarantees nothing in the present, I struggle to believe that both of these scorelines will just happen to fail to appear for the first time at the same WC. One of them? Always a chance, but both? Don't believe it.
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