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World Cup 2018

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Legend
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Posted: #401
In the past three World Cups, the teams that have won have all won with defense.  In the 7 games they each played, here are the last 3 winners goals against (in the 3 group stage games and then in the 4 knockout games)

Germany 2-2
Spain 2-0
Italy 1-1


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Posted: #402
Van, at the first page i saw your prediction on the outcome for round of 16 till the finals (sorry i cant quote the one im mentioning cover problem i think), now that its clearly set what do you think will hapen? 

For me, I still see spain winning it all also I love argetina and portugal winning, so we can see a ronaldo messi match up (but I think this is very unlikely). Brazil belgium sweden is will win theyre matches, possibly an upset on denmark and colombia if james is ready to play.

Van thanks for the winning picks and analysis at the group stages! Always a fan of it! Most I tailed, some are not.
BOL always and goodluck at the rd of 16 till the rest! 
 
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Posted: #403
On to the matches....

A starting thought....   I am pretty surprised to see France at up to 9-1 available.  I think they are probably the value right now in the "to win" market.

Argentina has issues.  Not groundbreaking information, but it bears repeating.  I am not so concerned about the drama stuff - but there are onfield issues that cannot be resolved.  This side is old, outmanned talent-wise, and way too reliant on one player.

Why does being reliant on one player matter?  Because he is playing out of position.  Messi is best when he can lead the attack from the midfield, pick up balls in his own half and direct the flow of play.  He is forced to play as a true striker in this system - and while you see his genius on his goal against Nigeria - this is not where he is comfortable and can best help the team.  And against the three group games, you can see the result in exact terms of defensive skill of the opposition:  Nigeria he did well (and the team did also), Iceland mediocre (team also), Croatia terrible (team also).

For those not paying such close attention - Argentina has allowed 5 goals and only scored 3 against what would be considered really sub-par competition.

Argentina has a disaster with Mascherano in defensive midfield, and an aging back four that is anything but world class.  They failed to keep a clean sheet against sub-par competition so far, and the quality of chances against has been astounding.  They are also without a solid starting GK - starting Armani who at 31 had never played a match for the national team.

France are quite the opposite - shining brightly on defense while struggling on offense.  They have only allowed a single goal through their three matches, a penalty to Australia.  On paper - France has extremely potent weapons up front and in build up - but it hasn't materialized so far in the tournament.

But with Kante sitting on top of an extremely tight defense (I do worry about Lloris in goal), chances for Argentina should be few and far between.  Messi might have to show some brilliance - and that could easily happen - but I don't see a chance that Argentina's midfield will be able to provide very many good opportunities.

France will get the bulk of opportunities - and it will come down to finishing them - which I think they will against a really bad defense and GK situation.  Messi will be out of position all match, and Argentina has no answer tactically or with talent to change shape and provide issues for France.

I will be surprised if this one gets to extra time....  Predicted final score France 2-0

France PK and -.5 +102 (90 minute +stoppage wager) (3 units to win 3.04)
France to advance -142 (1.42 to win 1)
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Legend
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Posted: #404
Portugal / Uruguay....

The line has this one at basically a dead heat, and a low scoring game is expected.

Uruguay have not conceded, and have looked well doing it.  Five goals for, zero against.  But this was against vastly sub-par competition - three matches that they should have won and could be argued that the two they won against KSA and Egypt were underwhelming.  

Lots of potential here - and capable of going far with a very well organized traditional 4-4-2.  It will take a major effort to break this side down.

Portugal are not a good team, but have a single great player who (unlike Messi) is playing in position and can win games singlehandedly.  So this makes for a very tough proposition to predict....  Will Ronaldo do something great, or wont he?

I expect a very low scoring tight match, with extra time a good possibility.   I was tempted to go under, but cant lay up to -140 to go under 2.

I have decided to bet the draw at +195 (1 unit to win 1.95) as the ingredients for a draw here are pretty good - low scoring, extremely close matchup.  Wouldn't be surprised with a 1-0 either way also.

Predicted final score 0-0 (in 90)
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Legend
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Posted: #405
Quote Originally Posted by Over_under_O:

Spain -1 is square but it has to be the best bet of the 16. 

How is Russia going to win? They’re awful. 


Agree with you here about Spain winning, but by multiple goals?  They just have a history of not scoring that goal that puts them up by 2+....   Not disagreeing, but will write it up soon.
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Legend
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Posted: #406
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

Great job Van, it's damned hard to beat the books and you have done it repeatedly. My opinions are worse than worthless but another guy Diamondjack over at the soccer forum is kicking behind just like you are and has done it for multiple world cups. Assessment of a good capper requires a very very large sample size to be accurate and you two have done it. Congrats. 

Diamondjack likes France at +145 to beat Argentina. His reasoning is as follows.

Argentina & Messi are getting too much love from the books.They were lucky to get to this point after a really bad group stage performance. France are not a Nigeria or Iceland they are France who are arguably better than Croatia and we know how that ended up for the south Americans. France are well rested, stacked at all positions not just forwards like Argentina. Argentina could not cope with the midfield strength of Croatia & France have been too cautious having teams defend against them. Argentina unlike their great teams of the past cant defend which should play into the hands of the French.


 everybody and get those greedy stinkin books

Thanks for the nice words.

I also like France.  Betting them a little bit differently than DJ (I read his thread along with others every day, he is always very good) as I am taking half the bet off the table in case of a draw after 90, but I do really like France to take out Argentina with relative ease.

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Legend
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Posted: #407
Quote Originally Posted by Kidmancer:

Van, at the first page i saw your prediction on the outcome for round of 16 till the finals (sorry i cant quote the one im mentioning cover problem i think), now that its clearly set what do you think will hapen? 

For me, I still see spain winning it all also I love argetina and portugal winning, so we can see a ronaldo messi match up (but I think this is very unlikely). Brazil belgium sweden is will win theyre matches, possibly an upset on denmark and colombia if james is ready to play.

Van thanks for the winning picks and analysis at the group stages! Always a fan of it! Most I tailed, some are not.
BOL always and goodluck at the rd of 16 till the rest! 

Too tough to lay out the whole bracket right now.....

But with no odds on anyone (meaning, pick the winner) I would take Spain still.  At current odds, I think France is the side with the most value.

GL the rest of the way Kidmancer.

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Legend
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Posted: #408
OVERALL RECORD:   Up 42.79  Down 35.46

Future Bets: (truncated)
Up 3.17  Down 1.7
Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Game Bets: (truncated)
Current Record - UP   39.62  Down 33.76
45.   Colombia -115 vs Senegal (4.1 to win 3.5) - WIN
46.  Poland PK +100 vs Japan (1.5 units to win 1.5) - WIN
47.  England vs Belgium - no bet
48.  Panama vs Tunisia over 2.5 +104 (1 unit to win 1.04) - WIN

49.  France PK and -.5 +102 (90 minute +stoppage wager) (3 units to win 3.04), France to advance -142 (1.42 to win 1)
50.  Uruguay / Portugal draw +195 (1 to win 1.95)

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Posted: #409
Great info vanzack. Thanks
 
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Posted: #410

Fantastic work Brother .....

Have a cuzzo who is tailing you , he keeps ribbing that i should have done the same ....

 

 

Much respect 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #411
Love France tomorrow and I'm actually on Portugal to advance.  GL, Van.  
 
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Posted: #412

Good luck the rest of the way, mr vanzack.

I'm on board, along with many others

 
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Posted: #413

Good luck VZ!

 
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Posted: #414
VZ. THANKS FOR EVERYTHING   Prob a dumb question.   Is you France bet just 3 units -.5 and 3 units as a PK? Or is one the same my man?  Ty j
 
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Posted: #415

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Kidmancer:

Van, at the first page i saw your prediction on the outcome for round of 16 till the finals (sorry i cant quote the one im mentioning cover problem i think), now that its clearly set what do you think will hapen? For me, I still see spain winning it all also I love argetina and portugal winning, so we can see a ronaldo messi match up (but I think this is very unlikely). Brazil belgium sweden is will win theyre matches, possibly an upset on denmark and colombia if james is ready to play.Van thanks for the winning picks and analysis at the group stages! Always a fan of it! Most I tailed, some are not.BOL always and goodluck at the rd of 16 till the rest! 
Too tough to lay out the whole bracket right now.....But with no odds on anyone (meaning, pick the winner) I would take Spain still.  At current odds, I think France is the side with the most value.GL the rest of the way Kidmancer.

 
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Posted: #416

I think if Spain gets by Croatia your laughing... that being said I think Spain will be in trouble against a healthy Croatian side.

Good luck though appreciate your input very helpful..thanx  

 

 

OTPS

 
Legend
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Posted: #417

49.  France PK and -.5 +102 (90 minute +stoppage wager) (3 units to win 3.04), France to advance -142 (1.42 to win 1)
50.  Uruguay / Portugal draw +195 (1 to win 1.95)

Love the draw play with URU/POR....wondering why you are laying so much juice of France to advance.
I have them on the ML as 'tina pretty much blows at the back.

 
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Posted: #418
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Agree with you here about Spain winning, but by multiple goals?  They just have a history of not scoring that goal that puts them up by 2+....   Not disagreeing, but will write it up soon.

not messing around. Spain ML. 
 
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Posted: #419
Vanzack,

Been reading your writeups each night before bed. I find myself looking forward to them and have tailed several plays. Thanks for the insight and the time you put into it. 

Great job so far and BOL the rest of the way! 

 
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Posted: #420
Let's go France!!!
 
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Posted: #421
All hail Sir Vanzack 
 
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Posted: #422
 France
 
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Posted: #423
 
Legend
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Posted: #424

Some initial thoughts before I read anything straight from watching France / Argentina....

Great game for the fans.

What was France doing in the last 10 minutes?

Pretty sure in the first 80 minutes Lloris didn't make a save.  I think Argentina scored on both of the chances they had.

I am not sure what we can take away from that defensive performance for France.  The goals (first two) for Argentina were fluky IMO.

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Posted: #425

And France is going to have to play next match without Umtiti and Giroud.

Big losses for them (Umtiti more than Giroud, but Giroud does play a positional role that the French can't really replace)

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