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World Cup 2018

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MVP
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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

New bracket: https://sports.cbsimg.net/images/soccer/worldcup/WC_Bracket_16.pdf


First though, next 8
Uruguay
Spain
France / Argentina (not sure)
Croatia
Brazil
Sweden / Swiss (not sure)
Belgium
Colombia



It was an exciting knockout round-16. 

Now we have 8 teams (listed in no particular order)

Uruguay
Russia
France
Croatia
Brazil
Sweden
Belgium
England

Friday 7/6
Uruguay - France
Brazil - Belgium

Saturday 7/7
Sweden - England
Russia - Croatia

See you Friday
Happy 4th of July the those in the US


Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #102
France to advance -220
The worst possible scenario is the game decided by PK shootout. Uruguay plays great defense so it is still possible that there will be a draw at the end of 90/120 minutes. For this WC2018, Cavani is the best player for Uruguay.  I do not see how Uruguay can win the match (in the playing field) without him. I will take my chance and make the bet that has the best chance to win.
At the end of 90 minutes, France chance to win is %50, Uruguay chance to win is 15%, Draw is 35%
At the end of 120 minutes, France chance to win is %75, Uruguay chance to win is 5%, Draw is 20%

Brazil to advance -170
Belgium is a very good team but how Brazil play this WC2018 is "magical". I do not see how this match would go into a shootout. Brazil will beat Belgium in the field but when? I go for the advance line because I do not want to deal with the "draw" BS at the end of regulation time. 
At the end of 90 minutes, Brazil chance to win is %50, Belgium chance to win is 25%, Draw is 25%
At the end of 120 minutes, Brazil chance to win is %70, Belgium chance to win is 15%, Draw is 15%

These are the two most obvious picks (a bit square). I am playing with house money so I can afford to pay the juice. I have been thinking about all the possibilities and there are none better.

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
MVP
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Posted: #103
adding ...

Belgium +½ -125

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
MVP
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Posts: 18562
Posted: #104
BRAZIL 4-3-3
Alisson, 
Marcelo, Miranda, Thiago Silva, Marcelo, Fagner
Philippe Coutinho, Fernandinho, Paulinho
Neymar, Gabriel Jesus, Willian

I would prefer Firmino to play forward in place on Gabriel Jesus because Brazil forward needs to run back and forth counter Belgium 4th man midfield.

BELGIUM 3-4-3
Thibaut Courtois
Jan Vertonghen, Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld
Nacer Chadli, Marouane Fellaini, Axel Witsel, Thomas Meunier
Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne

With this lineup, Belgium is trying to beat  Brazil with height. they will try to feed as many (high) balls to Lukaku as possible.


It should be a great game. I am expecting and hoping Brazil comes out on top. 
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
MVP
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Posted: #105
Another profitable day ...

I am driving down to LA tonight for a reunion tomorrow night so I might have time to post later on. I will be watching the game with my friends early tomorrow - LOL 

I have been capping these two picks since Tuesday so you can be sure that these are not a quick picks, or last minute actions:

Sweden +0.5
Sweden to advance

Croatia to advance

I am going extra extra extra large on Croatia .... basically all my winning this week on it.... and that is a lot of $$

If I have time, I will provide some analysis and reasoning.

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 1692
Posted: #106

Stay away from Sweden, England wins.

 
Rookie
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Joined: Mar, 2018
Posts: 772
Posted: #107

Quote Originally Posted by PublicJoe:

Stay away from Sweden, England wins.
Easy money moneybag

 
MVP
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Posted: #108
Belgium pk, +½  -120
Belgium to advance +105


Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
Legend
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Posts: 51193
Posted: #109

On Belgium for the game and future bet as well. BOL Buddy.

R.I.P. Legend
 
MVP
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Posted: #110

Quote Originally Posted by Metallica2467:

On Belgium for the game and future bet as well. BOL Buddy.

Good luck to us buddy

an_cheers

Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 479
Posted: #111
Francia3-2Belgica  Croacia 1-2Inglaterrafanboy!!$$$$
 
MVP
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Posted: #112

Belgium/France Under 2+½  -125

Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
Banned
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Posts: 66896
Posted: #113
Best of luck Brother 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
MVP
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Posted: #114
Croatia pk +135 (1H)
Croatia +½ -145
Croatia pk +160
Croatia to advance +140

If Modric goes, 
.... the Croatian team will go with him.
.... England is going back home without the cup

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
Captain
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Posts: 6384
Posted: #115
Is this play as big as the Russia game? Thanks for your insight bud 
 
MVP
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Is this play as big as the Russia game? Thanks for your insight bud 

Monkeebooger, I love Croatia if FIFA allows the game to be played fairly. Croatia would beat England 10 out of 10. My only concern is the corrupted FIFA and Russia would do everything possible to put England in the Final. That would generate lots of money for the host country from tickets, traveling, etc ... Still, I am siding with Croatia as I really believe Croatia is a way better team. This is my biggest bet of the tournament.

Good luck today


Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #117
To clear thing up on yellow card suspension

How the World Cup suspension rule works

Players who pick up just two yellow cards between the group stage and the quarter-finals are given an automatic one-game suspension.

The same goes for a straight red, with FIFA able to extend the bans if they feel it is required.

However, the controversy over players being suspended for previous finals has forced FIFA to act in recent World Cups.

World Cup semi-final suspension rules

In 2018, no player who picks up their second yellow card during the World Cup semi-final will receive a ban for the final.

In effect, yellow cards are wiped at the semi-final stage.

Players who are sent off in the last-four will still be banned for the final, however.

Kylian Mbappe picked up his second yellow of the World Cup in the 1-0 win over Belgium. However, due to FIFA’s rules, he will not miss the final in Moscow.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/986803/World-Cup-yellow-cards-rule-How-suspensions-work-semi-final-stage-Belgium-France-England

Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
MVP
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Posted: #118
HOW THE WORLD CUP SUSPENSION RULE WORKS

Players who pick up just two yellow cards between the group stage and the quarter-finals are given an automatic one-game suspension.

The same goes for a straight red, with FIFA able to extend the bans if they feel it is required.

However, the controversy over players being suspended for previous finals has forced FIFA to act in recent World Cups.



WORLD CUP SEMI-FINAL SUSPENSION RULES

In 2018, no player who picks up their second yellow card during the World Cup semi-final will receive a ban for the final.

In effect, yellow cards are wiped at the semi-final stage.

Players who are sent off in the last-four will still be banned for the final, however.

Kylian Mbappe picked up his second yellow of the World Cup in the 1-0 win over Belgium. However, due to FIFA’s rules, he will not miss the final in Moscow.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/986803/World-Cup-yellow-cards-rule-How-suspensions-work-semi-final-stage-Belgium-France-England
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #119
England pk, +0.5 -110
England to win 3rd place +175
Belgium is emotionally broken. England is emotionally motivated. Take the motivated team plus money to win the consolation prize.

Of course the size of the bets is only ~ 20% of the bet on Sunday

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
MVP
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

England pk, +0.5 -110
England to win 3rd place +175
Belgium is emotionally broken. England is emotionally motivated. Take the motivated team plus money to win the consolation prize.

Of course the size of the bets is only ~ 20% of the bet on Sunday

Good luck guys

Correction England to win 3rd place +125
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #121
I already had Croatia future 6 to 1 to win 6K. This means I am betting Croatia to win it all. This is the only future I had for this tournament.

The extra time that Croatia playing is definitely a concern. Because of this, I am not making this a super big play. I love to see Croatia lifting the trophy but there is clear disadvantage for the side. I have been reading on Perisic. I don't know how serious the injury is but it is also pointed to the extra time of playing taking toll on the players. 

adding....

Croatia +0.5 -110

Good luck guys
Every day out of the red is a big win.
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