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Oregon at Arizona (11/15/2007)

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Oak:

Strength of schedule factor:

 

The strength of schedule is almost identical except for the fact that Oregon has played quality opponents like Michigan and Fresno State. Arizona has played Northern Arizona and New Mexico (lost 29-27) the edge here goes to Oregon

 

 

Here are some stats for the first half players:

 

The ducks have a first half record of 8-1 and the Wildcats have a 3-6-1 record. The clear edge here goes to Oregon. The ducks seems to come out of the gates hard and heavy while Arizona appears flat.

 

After crunching the numbers I have come up with Oregon having a 76% advantage over Arizona. I think Oregon goes up big early and may falter some in the second half. I think Arizona’s passing attack will have its moments but won’t fully click until the second half.

 

I am a little worried about the line dropping and Oregon being able to cover the spread for the game. I will take Oregon -6.5 in the first half my friends and the over for the game.

 

Hope my information helps you and makes some of your decisions a little easier . Good luck to everyone and happy wagering

Bruddah Oak...awesome stats to go by and hard not to take Oregon at the half. Hmmm, you sure you not BigD under an alias? LOL
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddyhpd:

Believe me I've been looking at this game all week and trying to find something that can break this 2nd rank curse as I do like the Ducks.

Ducks have been good to me in the 1st half plays this season and those who followed should know.

Ducks give up as much yardage on defense as much as they put up on offense. The funny thing is that the Ducks lead the conference in turnover margins.

Ducks are 21-7 ats after winning 2 straight home games.

Arizona is 0-11 ats in home games when both teams playing averages 28 points or more a game.

     Zona 28 points per game average per game

     Ducks  42 points per game average.

Zona 1-12 ats in their last home games of the season for the past 13 seasons.


Zona 2-8 ats the past 10 seasons in the game before they play Arizona St.


Sounds like the Ducks.......but not so fast my friends

That curse of the number 2 in the country still bugs me.....


I need to get a comfortable 1st half line in order to pull the trigger on playing the Ducks in the 1st half.

Bruddah BigD...leaning Oregon at the half and Zona at the game...wat u tink? Either that or just wit the infamous BigD first half plays.

Waiting for your final my bruddah.

 
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Posted: #53
was all over oregon up until last night.  not sure about this one...gonna look at some more numbers!!!  how bout that shootout last night!!!!
 
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Posted: #54
have been telling people not to bet against the Thursday night home dog for about 10 years now... of course they never listen... but for those who care, here are this season's stats... 5 games fit the bill... the game tonight might be the last of the season, but USC @ Az St could as well... this trend is especially strong in conference games...
 
Ore St @ Cincy (+3)... Dog wins outright: 34-3
TCU @ Air Force (+8.5)... Dog wins outright: 20-17
WV @ Maryland (+16)... WV wins 31-14 (1 pt cover for the favorite)
FSU @ Wake (+4.5)... Dog wins outright 24-21
So Fla @ Rutgers (+2)... Dog wins outright 30-27 (but it wasn't that close)
 
Thursday night home dog... 4-1 ATS... 4-1 SU!
Thursday night interconference home dog... 3-0 ATS... 3-0 SU!!!
 
the 1 ATS win by WV was barely a win, and the line actually moved between 15 and 18 during the week, so some people still would have lost on WV...
 
just something to think about tonight...
 
 
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Posted: #55
by the way, those stats are not anomalous this year... they are typical, year in and year out... in 10 years i don't think i've ever seen that trend fail to pay out...
 
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Posted: #56

Quote Originally Posted by Sandys:

Bruddah Oak...awesome stats to go by and hard not to take Oregon at the half. Hmmm, you sure you not BigD under an alias? LOL

Lol, nah my friend I can never compare to the big man. I only try to throw out as much info as I can to help my friends.

I am pounding BIG  On Oregon-6.5 at the half

 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by GoG:

by the way, those stats are not anomalous this year... they are typical, year in and year out... in 10 years i don't think i've ever seen that trend fail to pay out...

Great info bro I might consider Arizona for the game, but I am sticking with Oregon at the half. Good luck to you

 
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Posted: #58
regarding those 5 games listed above, it is worth noting that in all 5 games (in hindsight), the better team won all 5... if played this week, none of the 4 home dogs that won would still be underdogs... only possible exception would have been FSU-Wake, but even that would be a toss up...
 
the one game where the road favorite covered was by WV, a legit top 5 team... just like Oregon... but also, the one game where the road favorite covered was not an interconference game, and this one is...
 
very tough call... but just wanted to caution anyone from loading up on Oregon... if you do like Oregon, you are probably better off taking the first half, because, for whatever reason, these home dogs really pick up the emotional intensity after halftime...
 
have fun!
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Oak:

Great info bro I might consider Arizona for the game, but I am sticking with Oregon at the half. Good luck to you

that would be my recommendation, as well... GL!

 
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Posted: #60

Tucson, Arizona WX:

Today:
Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. East wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
 
Tonight:
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Lows 48 to 54. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
 
--------------
 
Don't think weather will be much of a factor, but I think 67 total points is way too high...
 
My play is the under, large.
 
Note: I took the "over" in yesterday's Akron/Miami game...
 
GLTA
 
 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by coverditty:

Fishy Fishy...public 90%-10% on Oregon and lines moving down....hmmmm
Just my two cents worth....If 90% of the money from the public was on Oregon, the line would be moving the other way in an attempt to get more money on Arizona. Don't buy into the percentages that you see on websites. They are NOT a true guage of where the money is going. The line movementis what tells you where the money is going.Good luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by echampion76:

excuse me App St.

by a point.....on a blocked field goal.....holding off a huge rally by a sleepy team........The Ducks went in there the week after that, when Michigan was wide awake and ready to play ball.......and totally bitch-slapped them......the game was over at the half!!!  They beat USC, and undefeated ASU, and have covered to the tune of 8-1 this year!!!  This isn't your typical #2 team in the country this year bud.  No #2 jinx coming this week......BC, S. Fla, Cal, etc.......this is a team with far better Defense than they are being credited for and an offense that can beat you before they get off the bus!!!!

 

 
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Posted: #63
After a slow start on san fran Monday night. Things are looking up. Nice win with Ball St and Big D's Tues nite special and a very surprising win on Akron and under last night. I was a little nervous about that one but the math kept Akron inside the number. I am with Big D on liking oregon. A couple of things concern me though. One: Oregon is 49-92-2 as a road favorite of 7 1/2 points or more. 34.8%. Two: Everyone picked Arkansas to beat up on my vols last saturday too and we see how that turned out. I think they caught Michigan at a great time still be down over losing to App St. Keep this in mind! oregon is not the only team wanting to impress a national audience tonite. Arizona of all teams are experts at knocking off big time teams in their house. All the stats point to the ducks around 14 point favorites. My line is down to -11. Looking at ducks first half. Big d is great at picking first half winners. gL to all
 
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Posted: #64
Like many here, I am leaning toward Oregon at the half, but Az for the game.  But it's a little scary that so many are on not just the same page, but both pages. 

Also leaning to the over here, but 67 may be too high for me to take.  Even a 37-30 game would push.  But both teams are rested and may be ready to run all night.

One point I would like to make is a lot of people are mentioning bye weeks -- but both teams last played on Nov. 3 and have the same amount of rest.  That's a wash.

BigD, where did you pull out this stat: Zona 1-12 ats in their last home games of the season for the past 13 seasons.  Pretty remarkable...  but is it last home game or games?  Is this only the final home game?  Hard to believe. 

Oak, this is a good point: "Oregon's # 106 pass defense vs. Ariz # 9 pass offense."  That's hard to ignore.  But you have to wonder, how much of that is situational, where Oregon gets way ahead and goes into a prevent, bend-but-don't-break defense?  That would skew the def pass ydg in a big way.  For instance, Wash St had 251 yds passing against them, but OR won 53-7.  Stanford passed for 262 but scored 0 in the 2nd half.  Yardage does not tell you the whole story.

We do need to respect the Thursday home dog.  It has been going on for awhile now.  I was at the BC-VT game last year when it kicked in and BC won outright.



 
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Posted: #65
1 unit Arizona +12
1/2 unit over 67
 
Might even put a little on Arizona moneyline and hope the #2 trend continues.
 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by dblg:

SO ARE YOU SAYING THAT IN THIS CASE YOUR FRIEND WILL TAKE OREGON?

 

Nope...he'll pound Arizona...he calls it the "smart money"

If public is 90-10 on Oregon and the line is moving down...in his words..it means the smart money is on Zona so he goes with that. I don't too much believe in stuff like that but like I said...he's up a lot more than i am...

 
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Posted: #67
Arizona +12 for me - may make this a big play.
 
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Posted: #68
i am taking zona...they gave sc fits and we all saw the sc oregon game which could have gone either way...i think az matches up nicely d-wise, plus tuitama is mobile like dixon which can give ore trouble and grisby is a hell of a runner who dosen't get a whole lot of pub...like 12 points here and would lean on under but...az plus 12
 
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Posted: #69
Looks like people in Vegas are betting on Arizona.  The line dropped from 12 1/2 to 11.  I guess they are thinking the Cats will repeat.
 
This year's Oregon team is different from last year, they are more together.  Do you believe in OHANA?  I do.  Have you ever played sports with people always grumbling?  Its hard to get things done.  That was last year's team.
 
Oregon will get the win in a BIG way. 
 
Oregon @ the half & game
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #70

Oregon 38-24

Oregon (-11.5)

Under 67

 
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Posted: #71
Man- had the first half under last nite. You guys with the first half over got boned. Sorry
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:

Like many here, I am leaning toward Oregon at the half, but Az for the game.  But it's a little scary that so many are on not just the same page, but both pages. 

Also leaning to the over here, but 67 may be too high for me to take.  Even a 37-30 game would push.  But both teams are rested and may be ready to run all night.

One point I would like to make is a lot of people are mentioning bye weeks -- but both teams last played on Nov. 3 and have the same amount of rest.  That's a wash.

BigD, where did you pull out this stat: Zona 1-12 ats in their last home games of the season for the past 13 seasons.  Pretty remarkable...  but is it last home game or games?  Is this only the final home game?  Hard to believe. 

Oak, this is a good point: "Oregon's # 106 pass defense vs. Ariz # 9 pass offense."  That's hard to ignore.  But you have to wonder, how much of that is situational, where Oregon gets way ahead and goes into a prevent, bend-but-don't-break defense?  That would skew the def pass ydg in a big way.  For instance, Wash St had 251 yds passing against them, but OR won 53-7.  Stanford passed for 262 but scored 0 in the 2nd half.  Yardage does not tell you the whole story.

We do need to respect the Thursday home dog.  It has been going on for awhile now.  I was at the BC-VT game last year when it kicked in and BC won outright.



Good morning my friend

pulled it out of the secret files bro.

This is the results of Arizona past home finale games.

Home finale games won by Arizona

2004 beat Arizona St SU ats

Friday game BTW

Home finale games loss by Arizona

2006 loss to Arizona St SU ats

2005 loss to Washington Su ats

2003 loss to USC SU ats

2002 loss to Arizona St SU ats

2001 loss to Stanford SU ats

2000 loss to Arizona St SU ats

1999 loss to Washington SU ats

1998 loss to Arizona St ats

1997 loss ats to New Mexico

1996 loss to Arizona st SU ats

1995 loss to Oregon SU ats

1994 loss to Utah SU ats

Had to dig into the vault for these ones

if you add on the ats stats on the games they play before Arizona St at 2-8 ats it seems like an easy play.......... but is it

Still thinking on this one..

Good luck this week bro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #73
Great stats BigD. This is the type of game where you can make a case for either team. I think I'll stay away, but then again I always end up taking these tough weekday games. Probably taking Oregon -6.5 first half if anything. Kind of like UNT/Arkst under @71 as well.
 
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Posted: #74
i agree on under north texas game... neigther teams has that great of an offense.. especially north texas.. dont know how they put up so many points last week... but the rest of the year they havnt been able to score much especially vs conference opponents!
 
 
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Posted: #75
are you kidding me???  every book i see has this game around 12 or 12.5... but my book has been at 11 for the past 2 days, so i've been waiting for it to jump up to 11.5 so i could take Arizona... finally i lost patience, and went to bet it and buy the hook, and the second i go to make the pick it drops to 10.5... FUCK!!!
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