What do you want? Another ROCK BOTTOM SURPRISE pick.One more time!Another ROCK BOTTOM SURPRISE pick!

I honestly will give it a Diaz "I'm not surprised MFers" if Nunes beats her a$$ in under 3 minutes. Quiets the entire arena. Only scary thing for me is her being overaggressive and getting hip tossed into an armbar. Or of course, the cardio thing but she has made improvements to that the last few fights.

Rhonda will make her tap . Or break her arm winning the belt !  gl though ! 

This is very important.

It is important because it is the biggest mistake gamblers, even good ones make. Even sharps make this mistake.

They chase lines. They chase odds. They chase the 'best price'. They chase purported 'value'.

I say 'purported' because the value is not in the price or the number, it is, and I say this unequivocally, IN YOUR CAPPING.

If your cap is solid, you will not be chasing a half point here or a half point there. In some instances, you won't be chasing several points. A rock solid cap should go beyond a half point or several points. I don't cap my games within a half point. I could see buying off 3.5 to 3 in the NFL since that is the number the majority of the games land on but outside of that, you should not be chasing .5 point or even 1 or 2.

So Papa's mistake is this: He claims I am getting Nunes at the 'worst possible time'.

Folks, TIME is irrelevant in betting. Don't be like a drug addict opening up the CFB lines on Sunday nights and quickly swallowing up the 'best lines'. YOU HAVEN'T DONE ANY CAPPING outside of what is in your gut. And what is in your gut is what the public caps with. It can win here and there but not over the long haul. That is why Vegas makes money and has mile high fountains in front of the casinos that you clap for.

So when I see +135, time irrelevant (I never even looked at the line prior while capping the fight knowing the entire time Nunes had to be a dog of some sort), I see every $100 returning $100 a 35% sweetener.

Papa sees the previous line of +300 or whatever it opened at (Time magnified) and thinks he is LOSING money.

This is the biggest mistake gamblers make. You have lost NOTHING until the bet loses. You can only gain. Worse, he'll likely run after a bet he has a worse cap on to replace this bet that has 'lost value'.

This is not poker where you MUST get your money in with +EV. Poker has exponentially more luck involved in it than sports handicapping. Imagine if you could cap every hand you played for a full week. You'd be one hell of a poker player. Instead poker players make decisions in seconds and therefore are subjected to far more luck.

And you'll be subjected to this luck when you abandon your caps and chase lines or purported value. Cap the game. Cap it for as long as it takes. Know the line somewhat and cap the game and then come back to the line. Don't let the line movement (and it will move in virtually every game you cap) cloud your capping. Your capping will be weak and your gut instinct will rule the day with a better line or better value as you chase it. The REAL VALUE is in the cap itself. 

This is a recipe for disaster and the main course is served up from Chef Papa Shango.

DON'T eat up what that Chef from hell is is serving.

All of this is counterintuitive to the average gambler because you've been taught different. I'm telling you it is the truth. ONE GAME in my entire record this year got a bad line and I PUSHED with it: and here's the irony, the bad line came with Miami -4 over the Jets and it was because I put the bet in TOO EARLY as it dipped to 3.5 (a winner) after that. Oh the irony.

Trust what I am saying here. It will make you a better capper. Many here will denigrate this post because they cannot wrap their mind around this, or refuse to, or they simply despise me and that is fine, but I can tell you this way of thinking has made me more of a winner than ever before in my life. 

The media is driving a Nunes win. He's still saying it. I've heard it all folks. I've heard it all.

I watched virtually every single fight of every fighter Papa, except some of the very early ones which are irrelevant (but for Rousey I've seen them all). I don't have to be there live in vegas shoveling popcorn in my mouth with a $15 beer in my hand in a sportbook to know what these two fighters are. And you have more than overestimated Rousey here.

Call me crazy but IMO Nunes has the best ground game then any opponent RR has ever faced. If she can stuff the throws and scramble it's going to get ugly.

His entire cap turns into a dumpster fire after saying the media is influencing a NUNES side! Has he turned on ESPN or FS1 lately?? Yup, all nunes, all day. Lol!

You talk about him riding the media but then say Nunes gasses quick? Everyone knows this and media is all over this. She already admitted to this flaw and has made improvements and continues to be her #1 focus.

Sorry didn't mean to hit send. Her cardio has been her main focus since leaving Brazil and making ATT her new camp.

 

You're using the fact that she took so much time off is a good thing when in fact it's completely opposite. That's a plus for Nunes. Training with Mr. know nothing count dracula is not anywhere the same as fighting Nunes. The break is not a good thing.

So you think there will be no rust? There will be soooo much pressure on this girl. She was on top of the world then lost and thought about suicide. This is the biggest fight of her life. Nunes and her coach won't let her get comfortable.

Love this debate BTW. Going to be a crazy fight either way.

Another factor is just how bad of a coach Edmund is. Look at RR's boy toy Travis. His career is 1 loss away from being over since joining the camp. Edmund absolutely sucks. His advice to Ronda when she was getting blasted was "You're doing great champ, keep it up"? WTF?? I feel like she will not improve anywhere being with him.

I just think she is outmatched everywhere except obviously armbars. I would usually say Cardio also but again IMO the year layoff evens that up. Training shape vs fighting in front of millions vs a monster like Nunes who isn't goign to let her get settled in dictate the pace is nowhere near the same thing.

Where do you feel Ronda is better?

Not going to lie, just re-watched the Liz v RR fight and I completely underestimated Ronda's BJJ defense. However, I feel Nunes has much better JJ and if she locked in that RNC it wouldn't have been that easy.

I'm sitting this one out and watching. Maybe if I see something at the weigh ins or someone has  bad weight cut I'll bet. I'll be enjoying this one.

I will say the guy on page 1 that said the safest or best bet is the over 1.5 is completely wrong on this one. Nunes had 6 fights leave the 1st round out of 17 and Ronda 2/13. So no idea how he figures that. I may even bet the under.

The total in this fight could completely go either way. It's a 5 round fight, fighters tend to pace themselves more as opposed to 3 rounds. I wonder if there's a way to look up situational stats like if 5 round fights go over 1.5 more than 3, interesting.

Anyway, a case could definitely be made that Rhonda fights a very conservative fight early because of narrative that Nunes gasses, along with perhaps a tentativeness to engage after the vicious knockout to Holm.

One could also argue that with both being so good in grappling and the submission game that they'll cancel each other out there, and if 1 round is spent in a stalemate on the ground, the over 1.5 could easily cash.

Of course this fight could easily also go under with a quick stoppage one way or the other, that's the beauty of the fight game.

Which brings me up to my next point, for guys who claim to be such big MMA fans you really speak in absolutes way too much. Anything can happen once that cage door shuts.

I don't think Nunes can be considered on a "freeroll." I think this is why you hear a lot of times that it is harder to keep a title than it is to chase it. Maybe not american media but I'd imagine there will be a ton of pressure from her home country to bring back the gold. Also, she doesn't have the following like Rhonda that would demand an immediate title shot if she loses. I agree with Papa here, biggest fight of her career, she either cements her legacy by taking out "The GOAT" or she becomes just another of a long list of forgotten names who lost to the chosen one.

Look at Mickey Gall and Sage Northcutt. Who the hell wouldn't think Sage wasn't more impressive (outside of his ground game) in every regard?  Yes Gall destroyed him. Just interesting to point out that example and possibly overestimating the potential of your side in the UFC which the Rousey-backing public is doing.