Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
Sorry, Scal, but you're too into the media narrative. You got a loser there. I've dug deep into this fight and regardless, you have terrible value on Nunes. Nunes is not some monster that you may think she is. The first thing you need to know about Nunes is she fades. She fades in just about every fight she's in.
Let's look at her last 5 UFC fights.
Nunes around +175 vs Cat Zingano.
Nunes won the 1st round, but then lost the 2nd, and was eventually TKOd in the 3rd. Faded considerably after the 1st round. Rousey took out Zingano in 14 seconds.
Nunes around -600 vs Baszier
Baszier was on a bad streak, basically done with the UFC. They gave Nunes this fight to get her back on track. Easy 1R TKO.
Nunes around +200 vs McMann
This was an impressive 1R sub, however McMann was coming off a loss to Tate. Good win for Nunes, but still not that impressive. Rousey took out McMann in 1 minute.
Nunes around Even vs Shevchenko
Nunes took the 1st, the 2nd was close, but again she faded late 2nd, and she got pieced up in the 3rd. Nunes won by Unanimous decision. If this was a 5 round fight, Shevchenko would have won easily.
Nunes around +120 vs Tate for Title
Tate went into this fight way too confident, did way too much press, and was not on her game/was just about done with UFC. It was impressive by Nunes, but let's not forget that Rousey made a better Tate tap twice. And Tate looked miserable a few weeks ago in her next fight/last fight in UFC. Tate also was getting destroyed by Holm before she got the 5R Sub.
The bottom line is, you are getting horrible value. Rousey opened at -320 and the media narratives had people drive this price all the way down. All the value is on Rousey right now. And you talk about the Holm fight. Well, let's talk about it. She took the fight way sooner than she should've because Dana White asked her to move up the fight, so she had a shorter camp than usual. The fight was also in Australia, and we can be honest and say Holly Holm was just a bad match-up for Rousey. Rousey did not have a good game plan and fought right into what Holm wanted. Nunes is certainly not near the match-up problem Holm is for Rousey.
Rousey's last several fight odds.
vs Holm ~ -1200
vs Correia ~ 1700
vs Zingano ~ -1000
vs Davis ~ -1200
vs McMann ~ -400
vs Tate ~ -700
vs Carmouche ~ -900
vs Kaufman ~ -900
vs Tate ~ -400
Thinking you are getting good value with Nunes at +135 is just wrong. All of the value is on Rousey. I cannot believe how much the public is driving this line down, but Rousey will be one of my biggest MMA bets in some time. Good luck, Scal. You will need it.
Christmas is a time of forgiveness.
And we, the Nunes bettors, must forgive this misguided post, full of classic pitfalls in capping which Papa has fallen prey to.
Papa is enamored with Rousey's back muscles and they are impressive, however they are clearly roided and I'll get to that.
Question: Did anyone ever buy those classic wrestling magazines where two women are fighting in bathing suits and leotards?
These fights took place on kitchen floors, apartment couches, near bedroom closets. Anyone remember this? They used to sell VHS tapes of these fights. $29.99. Good money in those days. People paid it. They wanted their leotards in action.
A woman would have another in a leg lock, thick thighs wrapped around another slender torso. This of course would accentuate the trapped woman's bust as she (playfully) writhed in pain (for the camera) begging to have the other woman release her anaconda-esque vice grip.
What was the point of this? Why in a young man's wrestling magazine? For innocent sexual arousal of course, in its infancy before the internet. The women only grappled, no kissing or anything else, but in those days it drove some of the magazine buyers WILD.
So they'd go to the convenience store counter with Brutus Beefcake on the cover of the magazine and grunt as they paid, but really, their Beefcake was inside and it wasn't Brutus, and they whimpered inside begging to be dominated as they brought their two lady grapplers home in a opaque plastic bag. Those lady grapplers were their paradise, even the mere pictures. Fighting in the kitchen on a linoleum floor beneath a toaster oven and blender was a turn on. These women were their She-Ra's of sorts. Built, but still WOMEN at their core. Beautiful and powerful. Enough woman to arouse them but enough brute strength to make them say "MERCY"!
When I see some men talk about this Rousey instagram post, back muscles rippling like waves on a Hawaiian shore, I am reminded of the fetish some have for the lady grapplers of yesteryear. And perhaps, just perhaps, this has blinded the bettor sufficiently to take Rousey and here purported "value" here, that dominant female figure now skewing their capping.
It is conjecture, but it must be put on the table as these counter-caps come fast and furious.
This is not an insult. These women were hot. But we have to put this all in perspective and put everything on the table to get to winning cap, of which Rousey, is not.
Papa, I'll be back to break down some of the other innaccuracies. Good attempt.
Christmas.
Forgiveness.
Forgive yourself and take Nunes.
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