Over 45.5 Oregon vs Wisc
Wisc will score this week. Wisc played 2 historically bad azz defenses. This total line is so low it’s a “pleaser” type of bet. If one has a book that allows selling points for + $$$ this is a great opportunity.
maybe just maybe Georgia Tech is on another level compared to their previous seasons. I’ll bet against that as they are traditionally a phony big chalk. Hard to back Cuse but I’ll buy the Cuse this week getting so many.
The last time GTCH was a -14 conference game favorite was 2011 and before that 2006.
Last weeks +3.5 at Duke was telling the story that this team is not worthy. They should have been a favorite and the lines maker evaluated them poorly.
Still speaking on GTCH as I continue to dig deeper. I’m looking at their previous game as an away ranked underdog vs an unranked team. This is the following week.
First of all there are only 12 games since 1996 so it’s very rare
2nd these 12 situation the dog covered 10
p:rank<25 and p:ADW and po:rank=None and CFH and -10>line>-24 and season>1996
top ranked teams are not away dogs vs unranked teams.
it’s a bad valuation.
Virginia:
has only been lined an away favorite in a conference game 18 times. Most of those games were lined -1 to -6. This will only be the 4th time since 2000 they will be lined higher than -6. 1-2 ATS in those games. They are outside their norm and could be once again vulnerable ATS.
S.FLA
They have never been an away chalk to a team that was previously ranked in the top 25.
We are going to find out a lot about both these teams. Memphis at home after being kicked out of the top 25 and a dog ? Against a team with little to no history of being lined like this?
im in on Memphis. Let’s see if they are motivated or just a phony.
Purdue moneyline.
They are one of the worst teams in the FBS winning games
With the line so low it’s an opportunity.
The total also has my interest because Rutgers has been looking overs the last 10 games or so only 1 under.
58.5 seems too high but that’s just the way I see it currently
Utah not riding as hot as they started
This being the late game I have pkenty of time to get down on this game.
Colorado can look terrible at times but the teams they lost too are impressive
Houston 6-1
Georgia Tech top 10 rank
BYU elite I think ranked 11th, lost by 3
TCU were tied going to 4th quarter.
Utah has 1 quality win this season : vs AZ St
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
UConn is laying too many. They beat BC last week but didn’t lead until early 3rd quarter. Rice isn’t good but I doubt 10.5 gets covered and if the ingame line increases I’ll back Rice in that situation.
Good stuff Spottie, Rice is one I jumped on right away and posted as well, and I havent played it yet, but UNC vs Virginia looks good as well. Virginia is not good as a fave. I like the Houston play too, makes a lot of sense.
OK State catching 40...I looked at that and wanted to take it just on principle and I thought Purdue looked interesting too.
More digging on Houston vs Arizona State.
A ranked Home Conference game Favorite (HFC) after a game in which they were a home dog in conference winner (p:CHDW). This home team has more than 1 loss on the season (t:losses>1). The contest occurs before week 13 (week<13)
HCF and week<13 and p:CHDW and rank<26 and t:losses>1
0-10 ATS
The line is a clue to me. The fact that ASU was a home dog means that they are not the best team in conference they have 2 losses. Those 2 losses are confirmation. The other clue is the line was +7. That’s a big line compared to a +3 line or closer to 0.
Last weeks +7 to this weeks -8.5 is 15.5 difference. Either they have over adjusted the line or they are backing ASU to stomp Houston. I read this as consensus game. Are we the public keen on the line adjustment? Are we giving AZ St too much credibility?
NC State vs Pitt
rank=None and pp:ADW and pp:line>7 and HFC and week>6 and p:W
A non-ranked HOME Conference Favorite (HFC) in which the won at least 2 games in a row. Their 2 games ago away game victory (pp:ADW and pp:line>7) was lined above +7. The current Home FC game will occur after week 6
These conference hone favorites are 33-71-4 ATS
If this hone favorite is lined between -6.5 and -11.5 the results are 6-21-1 ATS
Iowa State ML
rank<15 and p:HDW and AD and op:rank!=5 and op:rank!=6 and op:rank!=7 and op:rank!=8
As long as Iowa State is not ranked or if ranked they are not in the top 8 BYU previous game was a home dog win and now an Away dog. That is incredibly weak line evaluation.
These home favorites are 14-3 ATS. The problem is not that many results. Home dogs are lined as weakness and the fact that they are again A dog vs a now unranked team in Iowa State is incredibly poor.
BC vs Louisville
I can list at least 3 strong data findings against A home favorite after a big upset the previous week.
It’s a play on BC but I’m a lot uncertain about BC.
I am listing this because I want it to be seen this is at a minimum stay away game if not a play on BC in game with a better line.
Established in 1995,
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