TOURNAMENT: 123-84-9 (BIG PLAY: 44-25-7)
First of all, Happy July 4th to everyone. It's interesting to see a World Cup being played in our country during our Independence Day, but even more so when it's our 250th birthday. Most of these countries have existed for much longer than that, certainly many of those left in the final 16.
Now, on to yesterday, which was brutal. I'd say I would gladly pay to watch a game like the one we had between Argentina and Cape Verde but we have seen many great games, perhaps none to that degree as yet this Cup, but we have also won on those game. But I lost a small grip yesterday so I'm not really stoked about it and I'm sure some of you all tailed as well.
Worst of all...I had food poisoning so I was barely watching the Colombia game as I couldn't believe they didnt' get a 2nd goal. They kept pushing so maybe it had something to do with the heat, but that was completely the worst night of my summer so far. Doing my best to feel better by the France game.
No real surprises today, two of my favored teams to go far have games they should win to provide a head to head encounter next match. But to begin with these, Morocco takes on a Canadian team that is not really surprising, they are playing close to home after all (or at home really), and they have gotten the points where they have needed to get to this point. But they have also played FAR inferior competition to Morocco, only barely beating a weak South African team in stoppage time to advance. And that weak South African team, well Morocco crushes them in African play.
But this is the World Cup and the stakes are higher. I don't want to pummel this play b/c the line has- like some of the other games that haven't been as obvious- gone up quite a bit. But there are always areas to make money, so here is what I am thinking.
Canada have lost each of their four tournament matches against sides ranked inside FIFA’s top 25, and today will be no different. Morocco are built for this moment, they have progressed from six of their last eight knockout ties at major tournaments and won both other encounters with Concacaf nations. Canada on the other hand have only faced two sides more often than Morocco without ever winning (D1, L3).
MOROCCO -1 (+165)...BIG PLAY!!!: I am prepared for another push but I am not prepared for Canada to win. Yes, they can draw but this game will be played in Houston, indoors, where the games have featured goals and that scares me a bit on Canada given they have netted multiple goals in just one of their last seven World Cup matches. On the other hand, just one of Morocco’s six World Cup matches beyond the group stage witnessed over 2.5 goals, so the goals might be at a premium. BUT...Canada lost to Switzerland giving up 2 goals and Morocco is FAR better than a really good Swiss team. I see this game as tight, but ultimately Morocco should prevail in regulation sending the first co-host home.
MOROCCO FH (+150): Well, it was this play or a play on the Morocco TT OVER 1.5 but given some of their games have been low scoring- in fact 4 out of Morocco's past 5 have witnessed UNDER 2.5 goals (the exception as the game vs. Haiti)- I opted for this. Incredible longshot odds on a team that makes a habit of scoring early when they do. I am betting they keep those habits up and try to silence what should be a mostly partisan crowd for the Canadians.
today
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