Couple thoughts

Merrill Kelly

@LVTruck

 Happy 4th my friend! Let’s get some bags today!  

The most important thing to me, his bad surface numbers are backed up by ugly underlying numbers..

@insatiable

 Hi friend 

Kelly is sitting at 5-8, 5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, with 92 hits, 33 walks, and 18 home runs allowed in 81.2 innings

That is a bad combo not missing enough bats, putting too many on, and giving up power shots 

His recent form is worse than the season number. Over his last five starts, Kelly is 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA, allowing 36 hits, 23 earned runs, 8 home runs, and 11 walks in 28.1 innings, with only 14 strikeouts

Baseball Savant has him with a .375 actual wOBA allowed, but an even worse .408 xwOBA, plus 42.7% hard-hit rate and 14.0% barrel rate. That matters because it says the quality of contact is real

The pitch-level stuff is ugly too. His four-seamer is getting smashed, his cutter smashed 

Milwaukee is definitely on the shortlist today. Kelly has been very hittable, and the Woodruff matchup gives the Brewers an edge. Obviously we still need lineups before locking anything in

Woodruff

The biggest positive is that since coming back from the IL, he has looked. In his return against Cincinnati, Woodruff went 6 scoreless allowed 1 hit, struck out 10, and walked nobody

Then he backed it up against the Cubs: 5.2 scoreless innings, 1 hit allowed, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts. So his last two starts are: 11.2 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 2 walks, 16 strikeouts. Solid 

Since Woodruff is still working his way back from the shoulder issue, I do not think Milwaukee wants to push him too deep into this game. That is why the first five makes the most sense to me

Brewers first five -0.5 That is definitely on the shortlist. I am going to dig into another game now and see what else stands out

@LVTruck

Agree 

AZ's only shot was yesterday to catch the Crew in a bad spot.

Did you see how fast Pat Murphy pulled Harrison? He went only 3 innings. Murphy knew they would tee off against the lefty. He used a lot of bullpen yesterday. So did AZ.

Good Luck 

GL on your plays today. Do you have any leans on the earlier games thank you sir

woke up late today some much needed sleep 

today I like Philly Boston Miami brew crew  

I’ll ride with you tho I’m going to narrow down to 2 plays and tail yours 

@LVTruck

 Whats up man. Happy 4th of July to ya! Cleared my account last night and got the car insurance paiddd. 

Best of luck on whatever you decide to play today, keep on keepin on. That took so much stress off me and I am truly grateful bro. Thank you. 

Happy 4th to everyone! 

LV I’m a huge Woodruff guy and I agree Kelly is not it. Plus the Brewers middle to bottom of order has really been swinging good bats lately which makes me love this first 5 play 

Happy 4th truck and everyone on this post enjoy the festivities today 

I’m having brisket potato salad bbq baked beans and Hawaiian  rolls and Jack and Coke and beers so cheers everyone 

@kidd22

@Prplayer2169

 Happy 4th of July! God bless America!

Kelly has been terrible and washed up. GL with your action. Happy 4th!

Not choosing a side, but your discussion of each pitch seems to lead to an O9.5.....2 soso starting pitchers and bullpen facing some decent bats.....

LV

Agreed...bet the Crew first 5 inn last night before leaving the book, for all reasons you listed...hoping it is an ez cash like Nats first 5 last night vs Keller and Buccos