Posted:
#76
Really good thread.
Week 2 Picks + Write Ups
Posted:
#84
Next write-up
UMASS at Colorado (-13)
Power ratings: UMASS (97th) at Colorado (64th) = projected spread of -11
Doing the research it looks like both teams are extremely average and quite similar. I might give UC a slight speed edge in this matchup but not much more than that.
Last year UC was a 17.5 point favorite on the road last year and only won by 3. Both QBs put up similar #s: both with 7.0-7.6 ypa, 3 tds each, and 1 int each. Colorado with 4.3 yards/carry and UMASS with 3.5 yards/carry. Colorado much better on 3rd down (10/18) than UMASS (5/15).
QB Liufau wasn't that great last season: 6.4 ypa and 1.9 TD/INT ratio...but he played a much tougher schedule and didn't face many UMASS's in the P12.
Nearly the entire offense returns for UMASS - but they don't exactly recruit blue chippers so not a ton of upside.
Key player lost: Colorado lost NT Josh Tupou in the offseason. Their run defense will suffer...he was a legit NFL talent. Hawaii rushes (excluding QB Wittek) averaged 3.9/carry. Nothing special for Colorado's defense.
This is a team between two average teams. Colorado might have been looking ahead to rival Colorado State next week but coming off a loss from Hawaii I doubt it.
Power ratings say this spread is about where it should be. Kinda favor Colorado a little considering they are coming off a loss + UMASS will likely be rusty in their first game of the season...but this game could really go either way. Better games on the board.
Pass
Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by AllAmerican99:
Nice win tonight.. One of the few on covers picking W Kentucky .... let's look at tomorrow's game fellas
Nice win tonight.. One of the few on covers picking W Kentucky .... let's look at tomorrow's game fellas
Appreciate it. I'll have a Miami/FL Atlantic write up tomorrow.
Dropping WKU in my powers a little in my next update. Wasn't impressed with their defense. Too many missed tackles and too many times LA Tech got more yardage than they should. Also - not enough drives resulted in TDs for my tastes...LA Tech's defense isn't that great.
Posted:
#86
Good thread and nice success so far....expect you'll keep things rollin' during the year. I'll be checking your threads for your fundamental take on the games you're playing.
If knowing football would be all that it takes to win in the sports betting markets, Mike Ditka, Dan Marino, Boomer Esiason, Jimmy Johnson etc., should be the best bettors in the world. Johnny Unitas had a sports betting service for awhile, he wasn't very good either
And to my knowledge Billy Walters never played football.
There's guys I know that look for the pre-game pro analyst's plays and if they are all on one side, they fade their consensus pick. You'll do pretty well over the course of time doing that.
All the best to you this year and if you are consistently successful you'll attract your share of opposition, that's human nature. At the opposite extreme you'll also attract a legion of fans, It will all balance out in the end.
Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by Danny1:
McGuire87
McGuire87
what you think Miami vs Florida Atlantic game?
I'll do a write up tomorrow. Been updating my power ratings tonight so they are changed from my last Week 2 version.
Miami FL (29th) at Florida Atlantic (95th) = projected spread of -13.5 for the U
Some implied value here for Florida Atlantic at home with the spread at -18.5...but I'd have to look at it more closely. Pretty much comes down to personnel. QB Brad Kaaya (who I really like) only had 6.4 ypa vs. Bethune Cookman last week. Not that FL Atlantic's defense is that much better - and I'm a huge Kaaya fan...but Miami lost a ton of talent/experience from last year.
Guess I'd say I'm slightly leaning with FAU right now but I haven't done an in-depth analysis yet.
Posted:
#90
South Carolina starting soph CB Chris Lammons is out this Saturday vs. Kentucky. Gotta give UK's WRs a huge edge here.
Also, my projected spread for next week's game of LA Tech @ Kansas State is -6.5. If UTSA pulls the upset and I think that's possible it will be interesting what the opening spread is because both teams would have lost in W2 ATS...with Kansas State's being more noticeable. Don't think I'd play KSU unless the spread is -3, and don't think I'd play LA Tech unless the spread is +10...so I'll probably just not end up playing the game unless the public seriously backs KSU and pushes that number up...or seriously fades KSU. Either way I look at it - gonna be another public fade.
Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner18:
great write up hope to see more BOL, something in my gut tells me to lay off the CAL game, don't know why. Maybe because they always play over their head when they face the Pac 10.
great write up hope to see more BOL, something in my gut tells me to lay off the CAL game, don't know why. Maybe because they always play over their head when they face the Pac 10.
Don't take this the wrong way because I'm just saying this to help you be a better capper.
You're analyzing the logos. Basically, you have bad instincts about California (the team, the school, etc.) ... maybe you lost some bets with them last year - maybe you just think they suck.
Another thing I wanted to point out was you are dealing with extremes - "they always play over their head vs. Pac 12" - thats an extreme.
Let's deal with reality - Cal went 7-5 ATS last season...including 6-4 vs. the Pac 12...so they are actually were very consistent last year ATS in conference vs. OOC.
I'm not trying to be a jerk - I'm just saying you would make more $$$$ if you didn't analyze logos and deal in extremes. You'd be more comfortable with a team like Cal (and betting against SDSU) if you knew the players. Gotta become familiar with the personnel and what they did last year...gotta look at the stats. The more info you look at the better a capper you will be.
But if you just say "My gut tells me not to bet on Cal" - then your gut might be preventing you from learning the truth and making $. Now, I am not saying my pick this week on Cal is a lock. None of them are. I'm just trying to help you become a better handicapper.
It's not just Cal - I'm talking about other teams too. We form these biases against and for teams because we are human. It's natural...but the best cappers don't have biases against any teams. Great cappers look at numbers, know the players, and ignore the logos.
Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
Kansas State at Texas-San Antonio +17 ... 3 units
Texas-San Antonio +600 ML ... 1 unit
Power ratings: Kansas State (46th) at Texas San-Antonio (90th) = projected spread of +8
If you analyze the logos, you'll probably say "Kansas State is always a traditional power in the Big 12. They will route UTSA here."
Last week, UTSA might have been the Cover of Week 1. Going into Arizona (#25 on my powers) they were a 32.5 point dog. Nobody gave them a chance because they returned 5 starters from last year's team.
QB Blake Bogenschultz: 7.7 ypa, 332 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. UTSA gained 3.9 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA held super soph QB Anu Soloman to 6.4 ypa. Held Arizona to 4.3 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA outgained Arizona by 133 total yards. UTSA was 8/19 on 3rd down.
After reading all that - you might believe UTSA might be BETTER than Arizona...not a 32.5 point dog despite the final score (and maybe they are!). Conservatively, I bumped them about 20 spots in my power ratings - but they could keep going up and could be underrated.
Kansas State in Week 1 was very unimpressive vs. FCS South Dakota. KSU QB Joe Hubener threw for 50% completions, 147 total passing yards...against an FCS team. Translation = KSU doesn't have a QB. Hubener is the backup, but Jesse Ertz is out indefinitely with an injured knee and "likely to miss the rest of the season" -KansasCity.com
Kansas State outgained USD by 66 total yards (25% more yards). USD was 8/18 on 3rd down. KSU only 5/12 on 3rd down.
Starting SS and leader of the DBs Dante Barnett (leading tackler last year, 8 PBUs, 3 INTs) is quesitonable for Saturday's game. I'll take that as a bonus when I'm capping but not banking on it. Don't need it - but it's nice if he doesn't play.
KSU team briefing: Lost a ton from last year's team. Nickle Randall Evans was drafted in 6th round. Star QB Jake Waters is gone (3500 yards, 22 tds, 7 ints). WR Tyler Lockett was a 3rd round pick at #69 overall- he's gone. #2 WR Curry Sexton (1,059 yards) is also gone. These two WRs averaged 10.1 yards/target. The next two WRs that return: 4.2 and 8.4 yards/target. Kansas State also lost its top 2 LBers in Jonathan Truman (15% of team tackles with 103.5, 4.5 TFLs) and Dakorey Johnson (9 TFLs).
While Bill Snyder is a great coach and gets results, I think this is the year that his mediocre recruiting catches up to him. Kansas State does not have a size or speed advantage over UTSA. As a handicapper, this game has double digit underdog upset potential written all over it. KSU lost a ton of talent in losing QB Waters, WR Lockett, WR Sexton, top 2 LBers, #1 DE (Mueller), with their best DB being questionable for the game in SS Barnett. To boot, UTSA played outstanding vs. a good Arizona team and Kansas State was unimpressive vs. South Dakota (went 2-10 in 2014 and 4-8 in 2013).
After I did all this research, I realize I was also giving credit for team logos in my power ratings. Kansas State should really be around 70-80 in my powers...they just don't have the personnel to be that great. Even if I was being conservative here, I'd say Kansas State should be a 3 point favorite or so...but definitely nothing more than 6 points. 17 points is insane and definitely based off on last year's stats. Everybody is giving UTSA crap for what they lost from last year's team...but what about Kansas State????
Taking UTSA +17 for 3 units. I'm also going to put in a patented CRAZY MAN MONEYLINE PICK INSPIRED BY TRAIN69 1 unit on UTSA +600.
Glad I could inspire you!
Some great stuff in here brother. Impressive. Im eyeing several picks I see you have posted.?....
Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
I'll do a write up tomorrow. Been updating my power ratings tonight so they are changed from my last Week 2 version.
Miami FL (29th) at Florida Atlantic (95th) = projected spread of -13.5 for the U
Some implied value here for Florida Atlantic at home with the spread at -18.5...but I'd have to look at it more closely. Pretty much comes down to personnel. QB Brad Kaaya (who I really like) only had 6.4 ypa vs. Bethune Cookman last week. Not that FL Atlantic's defense is that much better - and I'm a huge Kaaya fan...but Miami lost a ton of talent/experience from last year.
Guess I'd say I'm slightly leaning with FAU right now but I haven't done an in-depth analysis yet.
Definitely waiting for your writeup on this one. Thanks 
Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
Appreciate it. I'll have a Miami/FL Atlantic write up tomorrow.
Dropping WKU in my powers a little in my next update. Wasn't impressed with their defense. Too many missed tackles and too many times LA Tech got more yardage than they should. Also - not enough drives resulted in TDs for my tastes...LA Tech's defense isn't that great.
I agree but their defense is better than last year and I will say this that LA tech back Dixon is a 1st round pick and a lot of the missed tackles, extra yards were just bc he is too good
Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by jayh91:
Definitely waiting for your writeup on this one. Thanks
Orginally I thought without looking into it FAU +18. As Miami lost a lot on the offensive and defense line as well as skill positions and leadership from Duke johnson. But Skill positions will never be an issue at MIami if they have a capable QB which they do now.
My play is more against FAU- Looking at the Tulsa game.. Tulsa had not scoring drive which took more than 3 minutes. They averaged 20 yards per completion and were 9 of 18 on 3rd town 2 of 2 on 4th and FAU was 4 of 13 i believe on 3rd down. If they could not handle for slow down the athletes of Tulsa they are in for a long evening with MIA.
Also FAU defense produced 3 turnovers 2 fumbles and 1 int. which led to 14 points.FAU also had 13 penalties which means they are very undisciplined signs of a bad team.
Now FAU starting center is out, Star LB is out and the Mia defense is deeper than ever outside of the DL.
Mia 2 starting WR are out but as stated I never worry about Miami and skill positions if they have a QB which they do. Also people forget the 1st game was shortened due to a Weather delay so the score would have likely been 68-0
I'm either going MIA 1st half or +18.5
Posted:
#98
Next write-up:
Miami at Florida Atlantic (+18.5) ... 0 units
Miami FL (29th) at Florida Atlantic (95th) = projected spread of -13.5 for the U
Let's talk about the personnel losses from last years for both teams. Miami had 6 players drafted in the top 130 which is outstanding (two 1sts, one 2nd, three 3rds...LT, WR, ILB, TE, RB, G). Miami FL lost their 1st team all-conf center too...so 6 gone.
Miami FL will not be the same team as last year. AA99: I agree that Miami does a good job recruiting - but early in the season it usually takes a little while for players to get their feet wet...and I don't see Miami replacing a 1st round left tackle and 2 other stud OLs this easily. Miami has a ton of talent returning at WR so not concerned there - but they did have a beastly OL last season which helped their top 3 RBs avg. between 5.7-6.8 yards/clip. That # has to go down this year.
Miami's defense didn't suffer massive personnel losses so they should be fine again.
Gotta disagree with AA99 - Berrios and Coley being out is huge imo.
Florida Atlantic can replace their talent because it is mediocre to begin with ... however losing a 3rd round corner is impossible for them to do - so losing 3 starters at DB means Miami should still be fairly productive in the passing game.
A couple x-factors in this game where I have to lean FAU - QB Jacquez Johnson. He's a difference maker. I genuinely think if he was at a bigger school like Alabama people would be talking about him as a Heisman contender - but he's at FAU so nobody knows he's name. He's a great player. Secondly, this is FAU's Super Bowl. They are at home playing Miami - this game means everything to this team. Miami FL has Nebraska on the slate next and after losing last year's game there could be some look-a-head here.
My play here would be the under but it got bet down from 67.5 to 56 so nearly all the value is gone. I don't trust FAU's defense to keep this close. QB Dane Evans 12.8 ypa LW and Tulsa's top 2 RBs averaged 4.5 yards/clip.
Pass for me...but I am leaning FAU +18.5
Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by poppingbands17:
Great info here partner.
You have anything on the Utah/Utah St game tonight?
I saw where you provided a little info on the Miami game. that -18.5 is just a little to much to pull the trigger on for me. May just leave that line alone. May look at the O/U in that game.
Great info here partner.
You have anything on the Utah/Utah St game tonight?
I saw where you provided a little info on the Miami game. that -18.5 is just a little to much to pull the trigger on for me. May just leave that line alone. May look at the O/U in that game.
Next write-up
Utah State at Utah (-12.5) .... 0 units
Power ratings: Utah State (62nd) at Utah (19th) = projected spread of -16
QB Chuckie Keeton was awful last week vs. Southern Utah - 48% and 3.3 ypa for 110 passing yards total...I just refuse to believe his knee is fully healthy. Utah State #1 RB LaJuan Hunt only 3.5 yards/clip on 23 carries.
Utah State will struggle to score tonight, unless Keeton puts on a Superman cape and plays out of his mind.
Utah lost 3 players drafted in top 70: CB Flowers, DE Orchard, and LT Poutasi....but I only have them rated 19th overall in my powers so that is built into the spread.
Utah held a great Michigan OL to 2.6 yards/carry last week. I have a hard time seeing Utah State get more than 3.0 today.
Leaning to Utah -12.5, but I like other games on the board more than this season that I would rather bet 1 unit on.
Pass
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