All Forums | College Football

Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

...
Participants:
Search
Views: 27042
Posts: 200
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #1
Our picks were super-accurate last week (8/10 for 80%). Unfortunately, QB Marquise Williams decided to play horribly in the opener (2 critical INTs in red zone in 1 and 3 qtrs) and Kentucky shit the bed (I'll own I had too much confidence and have adjusted my power ratings accordingly). 

Hope to have another good week. Going to post a lot of write ups throughout the week whether I'm betting or not. If you have a question on a game I'll try to answer your question as soon as a I can.

Onto the first pick...

Florida State -27.5 ...... 1 unit
Power ratings USF #106 FSU #12 (-30 projected spread)

FSU Briefing: Everett Golson is one of the most prolific passers in FBS and had a great game vs. Texas State last week (76%, 12.1 ypa, 4 tds, 0 ints). Not saying I trust him against a great defense yet, but he can cover a spread and has the weapons around him to do so. FSU is well-rounded at RB (Dalvin Cook 8.2 ypc vs. TXSt, Mario Pender 6.6 ypc vs. TxSt) at WR (4 WRs with 2+ catches lw vs. TX St). FSU recruits well enough on defense to reload so not many concerns here in a game like this. 

USF Briefing: USF covered big last week vs. a bad Florida AM team, but I'm not sold. New starter Quinton Flowers only 141 yards passing (8.8 ypa)...what is this going to go down to against Florida State? USF only with one WR with legit experience (Adams 23 catches last year) as well as 3 starters on OL. USF doesn't have the pass rush to threaten Golson which means the DBs are going to have to be outstanding coverage to limit passing games. 

I don't see this game being close. I'm not a fan of head coach Willie Taggert (wins don't match recruiting rankings) and I think 27.5 is a beatable spread for Golson & Co. FSU will be going for style points to make the playoffs. I think FSU rolls here. Florida State is going to force Flowers to throw the ball, and that's I think where turnovers come into play. 

The counter here is USF will want to play great in a big-brother in-state rivalry...but that doesn't mean they are a lock to cover and that's simply square-logic. 

I like FSU - I don't love FSU - and I like that we are winning the key # of 28 as well as 30 and 31. Lay the points but conservatively for 1 unit. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #2
Next pick: East Carolina + 20 ... 2 units
Under 54 Points ECU/Florida ... 2 units

Power ratings: East Carolina (63rd) at Florida (31st) = projected spread of -11. 


I've been waiting for this game all offseason and it is looking like we are getting a great # as well as injuries in our favor (star fresh LT Martez Ivey likely out as well as S Keanu Neal who is questionable for UF). 

No doubt QB Shane Carden will be missed as well as WR Justin Hardy (4th rd pick) and WR Cam Worthy ...and I'm not saying backup named starter Blake Kemp is a stud - but I don't think he has to be to cover a 20 point spread. Here's the deal - ECU returns 4 of 5 OL up front and has a great RB in Chris Hairston (17 carries, 73 yards, 4.3 ypc LY vs. UF in bowl game). 

Florida has one of the best defenses in the nation - so I'm not arguing that ECU has to score a ton of points here. In fact, I think if ECU can manage 10 points in this contest the likely result is that worst case scenario we will push. Why????

Because Florida doesn't have an offense...and when I saw the spread here at 20, I couldn't really believe it. 

Does Florida have a QB: Will Grier and Treon Harris? No. 

Does Florida have a RB: A proven one in Kelvin Taylor. His stats LY vs. ECU were 4 carries for 0 yards with his longest run being 5 yards. ECU returns the bulk of their defense - not concerned here. 

Does Florida have an OL: 4 OL were drafted last year. Their best OL is left tackle Martez Ivey (blue chip recruit) who as I mentioned earlier is out as of right now with a torn miniscus. Florida has a patchwork OL that is very inexperienced. 

Hey, ECU only beat Towson by 8 last week - which is why I think bettors are overreacing to that result and just think they will be a pushover vs. Florida. 

Not that I don't think Week 1 results are important - but personnel is more important. How is Florida going to score 30+ in this game without an offensive line? 

Take the Pirates and the points. I'd be scared to death to take Florida here considering what they have offensively to work with. 

For the record - I also think the under here of 54 is a great number as well. Like the Washington/Boise game both teams lack star quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard. Making seperate bets of under and +20 to limit my risk of the parlay...and I'm not a fan of parlays, but ECU +20/under makes a lot of sense as well. 


 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #3
Last pick of the night...more write-ups tomorrow night ...

California -12 ... 2 units

Power ratings: San Diego State (86th...adjusted from last version fyi) at California (34th)...projected spread of -16.5

This is the stereotypical game where we absolutely love betting a future NFL quarterback in Jared Goff and are fading an absolutely horrible QB in Max Smith. 
 
Let's talk about Smith for a little bit. Here are his ypa #s in from Week 3 on in his 2013 season at Kentucky: 5.5, 4.5, 4.8, 4.7, 9.3, 6.7. The 9.3 game was against Georgia in a blowout and he only threw 16 passes. He isn't an accurate quarterback. 

In 2012, Max Smith got benched after a 37/60, 332 yard performance (5.5 ypa), with 2 TDs and 4 INTs in a loss to Western Kentucky. 

Last week against FCS San Diego, he was 9/21, 43%, 100 yards pass, 4.8 ypa, 0 tds, 1 int. 

Was San Diego state able to run the ball against FCS San Diego? 4.4 yards/clip and 1 rush TD. 

San Diego State has a pretty solid defense and almost everyone is back except for the LB corps that lost a couple starters...and statistically they look solid (22nd nationally in def yards/play in 2014)...but you have to look closer at these stats because look at their schedule last year in the MWC: Northern Arizona, UNC, Oregon State, UNLV (who lit them up for 346 yards passing fyi), fresno st, new mexico, hawaii, @ boise (played well - 6.7 def ypa 2 ints). 

I'm not sold. Jared Goff is a different animal. He threw for 309, 75%, 9.7 ypa, 3 tds, 1 int against Grambling last week. He's no joke though - threw for nearly 4,000 yards, 62%, 7.8 ypa, 5/1 TD-INT ratio last year in the difficult Pac 12 ... and nearly everyone is back this season except a 52 catch WR and 2 OL that didn't get drafted. 

The question for Cal is there defense..but with SDSU not much scares us. Nearly the entire 2-deep returns - so while I'm not saying they are Alabama they don't have to be to cover 12 points at home here against an SDSU team with mediocre QB play. 

I've got the #1 rated junior QB in the country by NFLDraftScout.com laying 12 points at home to San Diego State. Hey - maybe that sounds too simple...but maybe it doesn't have to be complicated. 

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8326
Posted: #4

You're saying that the Gators don't have an offense. Then how in the world did they score 61 pts. in their first game? The following is a recap of Florida's offensive output in game one. What's not mentioned is the 224 yards rushing they had.


Platooning quarterbacks Will Grier and Treon Harris combined for four touchdown passes and a scoring run on Saturday night as Florida opened the Jim McElwain coaching era with a 61-13 rout of visiting New Mexico State in Gainesville, Fla.

Grier, a redshirt freshman, completed 15 of 17 passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns and added 43 yards and a TD on the ground. Harris, a sophomore, finished 14 of 19 for 215 yards and two scores while rushing for 23 yards for the Gators (1-0), who posted their FBS-leading 26th straight season-opening win.

Florida rolled up total 606 total yards in posting the most points in a coach's debut in program history.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

You're saying that the Gators don't have an offense. Then how in the world did they score 61 pts. in their first game? The following is a recap of Florida's offensive output in game one. What's not mentioned is the 224 yards rushing they had.


Platooning quarterbacks Will Grier and Treon Harris combined for four touchdown passes and a scoring run on Saturday night as Florida opened the Jim McElwain coaching era with a 61-13 rout of visiting New Mexico State in Gainesville, Fla.

Grier, a redshirt freshman, completed 15 of 17 passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns and added 43 yards and a TD on the ground. Harris, a sophomore, finished 14 of 19 for 215 yards and two scores while rushing for 23 yards for the Gators (1-0), who posted their FBS-leading 26th straight season-opening win.

Florida rolled up total 606 total yards in posting the most points in a coach's debut in program history.


Last year Florida beat Eastern Michigan 65-0. 

It's New Mexico State bro. Not the Arizona Cardinals. You can't learn anything when elite D1 teams play schools that should be in FCS unless they play poorly. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8326
Posted: #6

If there's reverse line movement on this game before kickoff then I'll believe the Gators are softer than the 20 pts.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #7
Not to harp on it, but New Mexico State went to Gainesville to get a paycheck for their athletic program. Teams like this know that they have no chance and roll over. 

East Carolina thinks they can beat Florida because they nearly beat them last year. The only offense Florida had in last years game vs. ECU was an 86 yard pass ... and that was basically it. 

I could be wrong, but I heard Brent Crow of SportsMemo.com say on his podcast that Florida hasn't average 200 yards passing per game for 6 years. 

Think about that. So you think they hire this McElwain guy and Treon Harris and Will Grier will be studs behind an inexperienced OL and mediocre WRs? Really?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

If there's reverse line movement on this game before kickoff then I'll believe the Gators are softer than the 20 pts.


We'll see what the result is on Saturday. I'm not saying this pick is a lock or anything - just saying we will see what happens....but if you're wrong I hope you don't ignore this thread when I bump it. And if I'm wrong - I'll say I'm wrong. 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 50
Posted: #9
80% week one!

Keep the good times rolling.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 2509
Posted: #10
Thanks a new great thread for me to follow, I like people who do their homework and I appreciate it.  BOL
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 89
Posted: #11
Great write ups bro. I will be keeping up with this thread all week as I love comparing information. BOL to you this season. Peace
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 89
Posted: #12
What do you think about Sparty this weekend?. I'm loving the spot they're in against Oregon. It almost looked as if they were looking ahead to Oregon based on their second half play
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Hoseajr:

What do you think about Sparty this weekend?. I'm loving the spot they're in against Oregon. It almost looked as if they were looking ahead to Oregon based on their second half play

My powers have Michigan State at -11.  I like them this week just not sure how much or if I am even overrating them (#3 overall) which is possible. 

I also think W Michigan is a good team. Was considering picking them last week just wasn't sure about their D because their F7 is so small. W Michigan covered because they are good - it happens you can't blow out everybody. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8326
Posted: #14
I'm hoping you win your wager on ECU. I'm not trying to sway it. Just giving the facts so the readers can make an informed decision. BOL
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

I'm hoping you win your wager on ECU. I'm not trying to sway it. Just giving the facts so the readers can make an informed decision. BOL

I hear ya. I wouldn't disagree only that Texas State is so bad. If they were a top 80-90 team I think those stats would matter a little more. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 6735
Posted: #16
Nice writeups. Thank you. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 837
Posted: #17
Love the write ups. I am not a football guy myself (not from the states, so i prefer our football;) 

But from reading your thread I am understanding more of the game and what to look for in games. 

BOL this season!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 94
Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Our picks were super-accurate last week (8/10 for 80%). Unfortunately, QB Marquise Williams decided to play horribly in the opener (2 critical INTs in red zone in 1 and 3 qtrs) and Kentucky garbage the bed (I'll own I had too much confidence and have adjusted my power ratings accordingly). 

Hope to have another good week. Going to post a lot of write ups throughout the week whether I'm betting or not. If you have a question on a game I'll try to answer your question as soon as a I can.

Onto the first pick...

Florida State -27.5 ...... 1 unit
Power ratings USF #106 FSU #12 (-30 projected spread)

FSU Briefing: Everett Golson is one of the most prolific passers in FBS and had a great game vs. Texas State last week (76%, 12.1 ypa, 4 tds, 0 ints). Not saying I trust him against a great defense yet, but he can cover a spread and has the weapons around him to do so. FSU is well-rounded at RB (Dalvin Cook 8.2 ypc vs. TXSt, Mario Pender 6.6 ypc vs. TxSt) at WR (4 WRs with 2+ catches lw vs. TX St). FSU recruits well enough on defense to reload so not many concerns here in a game like this. 

USF Briefing: USF covered big last week vs. a bad Florida AM team, but I'm not sold. New starter Quinton Flowers only 141 yards passing (8.8 ypa)...what is this going to go down to against Florida State? USF only with one WR with legit experience (Adams 23 catches last year) as well as 3 starters on OL. USF doesn't have the pass rush to threaten Golson which means the DBs are going to have to be outstanding coverage to limit passing games. 

I don't see this game being close. I'm not a fan of head coach Willie Taggert (wins don't match recruiting rankings) and I think 27.5 is a beatable spread for Golson & Co. FSU will be going for style points to make the playoffs. I think FSU rolls here. Florida State is going to force Flowers to throw the ball, and that's I think where turnovers come into play. 

The counter here is USF will want to play great in a big-brother in-state rivalry...but that doesn't mean they are a lock to cover and that's simply square-logic. 

I like FSU - I don't love FSU - and I like that we are winning the key # of 28 as well as 30 and 31. Lay the points but conservatively for 1 unit. 

McGuire, do you feel it is not important to let the readers know due to big plays on Kentucky and UNC, your 8-2 record netted you less than 4 units in the black?  If you find it important to post how many units you are playing maybe you should post the full results.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

McGuire, do you feel it is not important to let the readers know due to big plays on Kentucky and UNC, your 8-2 record netted you less than 4 units in the black?  If you find it important to post how many units you are playing maybe you should post the full results.


I discussed my losses and my Week 1 picks are posted in the forum with results. Maybe you should find that thread. And I don't shy away from my results they are documented in the forum - and I admitted I overrated Kentucky in the OP here. 

Not everyone can pick games as well as you can (seeing as this was your first post)  - so I apologize. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by JVH1818:

Love the write ups. I am not a football guy myself (not from the states, so i prefer our football;) 

But from reading your thread I am understanding more of the game and what to look for in games. 

BOL this season!

Big soccer fan myself. Huge American Outlaw (USMNT supporter) and I'll give you a hint on my Premier League team ... COYS!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #21
Back to the picks

Kentucky at South Caroilna (-7.5) 

Power ratings: Kentucky (43rd) at South Carolina (42nd) = South Car -3.5 projected spread

Didn't do well last week with my Kentucky pick. We were looking good at end of 1H (24-7) but several reasons for our demise that shouldn't have been. UK has one of the best young kickers in the nation in Austin MacGinnis who missed a 46 yarder from middle of hashes + a PAT. That left 4 points off the board. Secondly, UK defense got gassed in 2nd half because the offense couldn't sustain drives. Why? QB Patrick Towles' inconsistency reared its ugly head. He didn't look very good. Dropped UK 23 spots in my powers to a more rational spot at 43. 

South Carolina covered thanks to 3 massive interceptions in the red zone. If one of the first two (in 1st and 3rd quarters) wouldn't have been and UNC kicks a FG instead we cover. Shouldn't have been that close of a game. Still liked my pick and I would do it all over again if I could. 

How will this game play out? Kentucky struggles with its rush defense because their LB play is abominable. They have a key starter out in WILB (weak inside linebacker for the handicapper beginners here ... in the 3-4 multiple defense UK runs) in Ryan Flannigan. He is questionable for Saturday's contest. His health is paramout to taking Kentucky here...and I'm not even sure I Like UK enough to take them with Flannigan...just saying. It's kind of a reason to fade UK here if you want to. South Carolina's entire offense revolves around the running game and the read option. They can't throw the football. Even #2 WR Deebo Samuel is questionable for South Car on Saturday. Maybe UK plays better under the lights on the road (not out of the question...nearly upset @ Florida last year as 17.5 dog) but who knows - maybe they play worse. 

Kentucky's offense all hinges on Patrick Towles. The OL isn't great for Kentucky, but South Carolina's DL and defense overall doesn't scare anyone. Based on what I saw vs. UNC - they will have their moments good and bad much like UK defensively. But it all comes down to Towles. If Towles is phenomenal(ly consistent) this could be a UK blowout - I really believe that. They have the talent at the RB and WR position to get explosive plays in run and pass game...and if Towles showed good consistency I think they would cover without a sweat. 

However, if UK has bad Towles then it is completely up in the air whether they could cover or not. 

Basically, I'm passing on this game right now depending on the health of Flannigan and some other injuries for both teams. Just too early...and most of the value is gone both ways at 7.5. Yes, my powers favor Kentucky...but it only takes one bad Patrick Towles INT or incompletion for us to lose the bet...and I just don't trust him + don't think we are getting enough points here. 

I'm waiting it out. Think there are better games on the board. UK didn't look great vs. UL Lafayette....so maybe if they show a great improvement from G1 to G2 then you're banking on something we just don't know. 

Pass 


 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #22
Next write-up

Oregon at Michigan State (-3.5) ... 3 units

Power ratings: Oregon (19th) at Michigan State (3rd) = projected spread of -11. 

Oregon was a 35 point fave vs. FCS Eastern Washington. Oregon scored 61 points (squares love this). Oregon gave up 31 first downs, 43% defensive 3rd down conversions, 3.6 yards/rush, 8.0 yards/pass, and 100% defensive 4th down conversions. 

I had Oregon 15th in my power ratings in Week 1. Dropping them only 4 spots in my opinion is being generous. What if their defense is really bad? Oregon lost some experience in their front 7 but nothing they can't replace (though those 3rd/4th down #s look awful and are cause for concern). Their issues are at defensive back - and don't get me wrong they have talent but this is the biggest games these kids have ever played in. Oregon's back 4 goes: Redshirt Fresh, True Fresh, Redshirt Fresh, Redshirt Soph. 

I don't mind inexperience when the talent wins and performs...but the E Washington game was an embarrassment. If Oregon's offense wasn't a juggernaut they would have lost. 42 points to an FCS team? 

Oregon is ranked 7th in the nation on reputation alone. They lost the #2 pick in the Draft at QB, 2 OL drafted in top 75 (which means they were beasts in college....3 starters total), and All-American corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu ... as well as two 2nd team All Pac-12 DBs. Oregon lost A LOT from last year's team. And I'm not saying they aren't good - but 7th is way too high. #19 overall is something I'm very comfortable with and they could be worse than teams like Louisville, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, Miss State, etc. 

Michigan State didn't cover last week vs. Western Michigan - but W Michigan is a good team that wins games. They are no slouch and have a ton of talent and experience offensively. That's why I passed. 

 This game kind of reminds me of my Texas A&M pick last week...and I'm not saying this pick is a lock because I liked the last one - but it's a similar scenario. Oregon is getting this +3.5 number because of last year's team...not this year's team. Basically what Vegas is saying is that this game is a pick em on a neutral field. Not even close in my book. Same thing LW with Arizona State vs. Texas A&M. Arizona State doesn't have last year's team and neither does Texas A&M. The public and Vegas to an extent haven't adjusted their perceptions to this year's teams (because that's hard to do). 


A lot of reason I like Michigan State here. They have a proven QB and OL and experience on defense. I like the home field advantage in a massive game against an inexperienced secondary. I'll take the future NFL QB in Connor Cook any day and twice on Saturday. Revenge factor after losing on the road last year. 

Michigan State -3.5 for 3 units. We're fading the Ducks I believe are overrated, as well as the public who doesn't believe in State because of their non-cover vs. a good W Michigan team. My advice is to grab the 3.5 now and don't wait for it to go down to 3. This isn't going down to 3. Too many questions with Oregon and when people finally realize they played like crap vs. Eastern Washington I think this spread could very well go up to 6 or 7. 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #23
Last write-up of the night...more tomorrow

WKU +1 ... 1 unit aka the Jeff Driskel Fade Special Pick

Power ratings: Lousiana Tech (68th) at WKU (62nd) ... projected spread of -4.5. 

Jeff Driskel has put up big numbers before in games that mean nothing. 

Against Eastern Michigan in 2014 -  69% for 248 yards. 
Against Eastern Kentucky - 82% for 164 yards, 14.9 ypa

These were his only two games with a % above 60. Four of his 8 games resulted in a completion % below 50. 

Here were his ypa #s from last year: 5.5, 6.9, 3.3, 2.6, 7.3, 2.6, 14.9 (EKU), 2.8. 

I think Driskel has serious accuracy issues, he doesn't put any touch on the football (all of his throws are Brett Favre lasers), I think he lacks confidence in his game - and I don't think one offseason at LA Tech fixes everything magically. 

Driskel had a good game against Southern last week...but there is a big difference between Southern at home and a conference road game. 

LA Tech lost their defensive coordinator to Miss State as well as most of their players from their front 7 on defense from last year's team (top 3 LBers... 4 of top 7 DL including 16 TFL 10 sack DE Houston Bates). 

Last year LA Tech rolled WKU at home. Cody Sokol stats: 30/42, 335 yards, 5 tds, 1 int. Phenomenal performance. Brandon Doughty was horrible - 14/35, 134 yards, 1 td, 4 int. 

But this isn't last year. The LA Tech defense isn't nearly as good and they lost their best player - QB Sokol. Granted Jeff Driskel played in big games in the SEC, but he had a highly talented, highly drafted OL + RB (4th rd pick Matt Jones) with him and he was awful...and no I'm not blaming Will Muschamp for everything. 

On the other side of the ball, I don't think people are giving Vandy enough credit for being an improved team over last year. Offensively, they aren't great, but defensively they are very underrated. They have a lot of experience and if anything from the Vandy game I like how WKU played. 

The defense held Vandy to 7/18 on 3rd down (a great improvement over last year) as well as only 6.2 ypa (I know Vandy doesn't have an NFL QB but still WKU was terrible in 2014) and held talented RB Ralph Webb to 3.9 yards/clip!!!! Oh yeah, WKU had 3 turnovers in that game. 

Not only will LA Tech be worse on defense this year, but I think WKU is better on defense. 

Taking WKU for 1 unit. As much as I have bashed Driskel here, I don't want to put ALL of my eggs in that basket and him prove me wrong and I look like a sucker betting 3 units on this. 1 unit is fine for me. If you can find WKU as +100 on the moneyline I think that is a better bet because you don't owe the juice and we think WKU will win this anyway. 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #24
Another reason for only 1 unit is we are only getting 5.5 point edge here according to our power ratings. I like WKU, but I'm not in love with them yet (they didn't exactly light up the scoreboard vs. Vandy no matter how good their D is). 
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 557
Posted: #25
Next pick (sorry found it and couldn't resist posting this late)

Texas A&M -30 ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Ball State (102nd) at Texas A&M (15th) = projected spread of -28 

(And I think I am overrating Ball St...read below)

Let's start out talking about Ball State - because this is a Ball State fade more than anything. 

They played VMI last week and won 48-36. Score was 20-10 at the half, and 34-17 at end of 3Q...so not exactly ever a blowout. VMI briefing: VMI hasn't had a .500 win percentage since 2003...went 2-10 last year with wins over Davidson (3-9 in 2014)  and Furman (1-11 in 2014). Translation: VMI isn't that good. 

Ball State gave up 444 yards passing, 9.1 ypa, 3 tds, 0 ints to VMI. VMI #1 RB Brice Tucker 5.8 yards/clip. Gave up 42% 3rd dwon % and 3/4 on 4th down. Outgained VMI by 20 yards (567-547...or 3.7% more total yards)

Bottom line is Ball State's defense is atrocious - and I am likely overrating them in my power ratings. 

Texas A&M was a 3 unit play last week vs. Arizona State and I think they will roll this week vs. Ball State again. 

Texas A&M is an improved defensive unit with playmakers for days (freshman Chrisitan Kirk - 6 catches for 106 yards, 1 TD vs. Ariz State).  Held QB Bercovici to 4.8 ypa and ASU RBs to 3.5 yards/carry. Also 28% def. 3rd down. Not saying ASU are world beaters on offense but these are much better #s than last season. Also gained 46% more yards than ASU in W1. 

Golden nugget: Ball State has two offensive linemen that are 6'1 (left guard and center). This means batted balls for TXAM DL and a length advantage up front to get off blocks and manhandle. 

A&M faces Nevada in Week 3 so no look-a-head here. 

I like Texas A&M for the 1 unit. Massive size, speed advantage here. The only counter criticism is that they take this game for granted after a big win vs. Arizona State but I'm not buying it. Sumlin and Chavis are great coaches and I think Ball State falls behind and rolls over like a dog in the mud. Expect massive offensive #s for A&M here. I mean if soph Kyle Allen throws for 7.6 ypa vs. a good ASU defense, what is he going to do to Ball State? I'm expecting 10-14 ypa in this game. 


All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.