Posted:
#126
Did a lot of reading on that Toledo "rainout" think you are on the right track. GL. 
Week 2 Picks + Write Ups
Posted:
#127
Quote Originally Posted by appleton40:
I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, i am primarily a first quarter and first half bettor, I am loving the Wolverines to have a big first half tomorrow and i am loving the -7.5 your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, best of luck all season long
I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, i am primarily a first quarter and first half bettor, I am loving the Wolverines to have a big first half tomorrow and i am loving the -7.5 your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, best of luck all season long
Love pretty much all Michigan bets...see no reason to not fade Oregon State and not love Michigan coming off the road loss. Great personnel mismatch...I think their 2nd string is good enough in this game to continue to build a lead vs. Oregon State. I'd be shocked if Oregon State kept this within 7 points in the 1H...but I'd rather play it safe with the full game spread.
Posted:
#129
Next pick:
Toledo at Arkansas (-21.5) ... 4 unit Pick of the Week
Power ratings: Toledo (64th) at Arkansas (17th) = projected spread of -17
*Game is on neutral field in Little Rock not Fayetteville for some reason...but I still gave Ark a 3 pt home field advantage built into spread.
Toledo is not the same team as last year...not even close (at least for W2 vs. Pig Suey). Toledo lost their entire starting OL from last year. Star #1 RB Kareem Hunt is out with a suspension. #2 RB Terry Swanson is banged up and questionable. Starting DE Allen Covington also out with a suspension (and they need him for their run defense. Starting MLB Murdock is questionable. Starting CB Jordan Martin is out. 2nd string CB Mathis is questionable.
That's not the same team or anything close to it. On top of that - I think the wrong QB is starting. Sophomore Logan Woodside was outstanding last year - 7.6 ypa, 19 TDs, 8 ints, 62.5%. Ely wasn't that great last week in the 1H from the stats I looked at vs. Stony Brook.
This game is going to be a bloodbath. Toledo weighs 265 - 285 (NG) - 305 on the DL. None of the LBers are above 235 pounds. Very small in front 7 and since Arkansas has one of the best run blocking OLs in the nation I think they will take advantage.
Now let's talk about how these teams did LY ATS. Arkansas was 10-3 ATS last year including 4-0 in non-conf games (including spreads of -41.5, -13.5, and -24.5). On the other hand, Toledo was very mediocre ATS. 5-7-1 ATS record with covers over Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois (by 0.5 points), Central Michigan, and New Hampshire. Keep in mind Kareem Hunt played in all but 3 games last year...Toledo went 1-2 ATS without Hunt. The best teams Toledo played last year were Missouri (lost by 25) and at Cincinnati (lost by 24). I'm not big on previous seasons ATS records...but it does show that Toledo hardly played teams with class and Arkansas was severely undervalued by the market. They are being undervalued again...greatly.
For the record, my power ratings did not take into account any of the suspensions or injuries. I wasn't looking at Toledo LW because I don't bet on FCS games so I didn't read up too much on Toledo. But if I had to handicap where they would be based on the team they will field on Saturday - I would rank them somewhere around #90 overall...which would create a power ratings spread of -24.
This looks like a 30+ point blowout for Arkansas. When you consider how Toledo is absolutely decimated with injuries and suspensions.
Considering how mediocre Toledo was LW vs. Stony Brook I really like Arkansas here. I don't understand why the public hasn't pounded Arkansas. Toledo is going to be rusty after only playing 1 half of football. Arkansas doesn't get into their SEC schedule until Sept. 26...they will be focused here. Considering what Toledo doesn't have in terms of personnel losses for Saturday I can't believe this line has only moved +0.5 points since it opened. For some reason the public acts like Arkansas doesn't exist.
Arkansas BIG...4 unit play and my pick of the week.
Posted:
#132
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
I actually think the Hogs have a better home field edge in Little Rock than they do in Fayetteville - old, dumpy, bandbox of a stadium. I believe it was the primary home for years. Definitely worth the full home field bump. Great threads each week. Thanks.
I actually think the Hogs have a better home field edge in Little Rock than they do in Fayetteville - old, dumpy, bandbox of a stadium. I believe it was the primary home for years. Definitely worth the full home field bump. Great threads each week. Thanks.
I was thinking about this too. You get more blue collar fans to the game who don't necessarily have the money to afford season tickets...they get more loud and rowdy than the wine and cheese crowd.
Posted:
#135
Quote Originally Posted by harvardofsouth:
What do you think of Temple -6.5 over Cincy?
What do you think of Temple -6.5 over Cincy?
I like the under of 55 more than anything. LY Cincy only had 1 legit TD drive vs. Temple...scored a TD after Temple fumbled and Cincy got ball on Temple's 3 yard line.
Temple only had a total go over 55 points twice last year (Delaware State and Tulsa).
Cincy lost 4 of top 6 DL from last year...lost top 2 LBers (combined for 188.5 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks etc etc).
Temple starting RT Leon Johnson doubtful for Cincy. QB PJ Walker suffered a minor shoulder injury but is probable.
The Penn State win is so big that maybe Temple has an emotional letdown? Game is on the road but I don't know. That's the reason to bet against Temple and looks like the only reason.
My power ratings say Cincinnati -2...so I'm sliigghhttttllly leaning Temple.
I think the best play is the under of 55...but Cincy's front 7 wont' be as good as last year so they will become a popular over team.
There are so many reasons to both sides of the line for Cincy/Temple and O/U...passing all. I'd rather put another unit on one of my other plays than bet this game.
Pass
Posted:
#137
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Did a lot of reading on that Toledo "rainout" think you are on the right track. GL.
Did a lot of reading on that Toledo "rainout" think you are on the right track. GL.
LOL hilarious and I think you're right. 9 point lead at the half vs. Stony Brook and they INTd SB twice...I think the Toledo coaches wanted to get a drink after that.
Posted:
#139
McGuire, I live in Hot Springs, AR and the crowd is even better in Little Rock than Fayetteville. Arkansas almost never loses there. I was at the LSU game a few years back where McFadden breaks an 80 yard TD, and Holliday returns the next kick for a TD!! The loss of Jonathan Williams hurts Arkansas so much more than people realize. However, the equalizer so far has been the improvement of Brandon Allen. He looks to be lights years ahead of where he was at the end of last year. And while Ark lost Flowers and Philon, they have a D Coord Robb Smith who has to be the most underrated assistant in the nation, I do not see much drop off defensively. I'm glad you are on the hogs this week, I certainly hope you are right!
Posted:
#140
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:
McGuire, I live in Hot Springs, AR and the crowd is even better in Little Rock than Fayetteville. Arkansas almost never loses there. I was at the LSU game a few years back where McFadden breaks an 80 yard TD, and Holliday returns the next kick for a TD!! The loss of Jonathan Williams hurts Arkansas so much more than people realize. However, the equalizer so far has been the improvement of Brandon Allen. He looks to be lights years ahead of where he was at the end of last year. And while Ark lost Flowers and Philon, they have a D Coord Robb Smith who has to be the most underrated assistant in the nation, I do not see much drop off defensively. I'm glad you are on the hogs this week, I certainly hope you are right!
McGuire, I live in Hot Springs, AR and the crowd is even better in Little Rock than Fayetteville. Arkansas almost never loses there. I was at the LSU game a few years back where McFadden breaks an 80 yard TD, and Holliday returns the next kick for a TD!! The loss of Jonathan Williams hurts Arkansas so much more than people realize. However, the equalizer so far has been the improvement of Brandon Allen. He looks to be lights years ahead of where he was at the end of last year. And while Ark lost Flowers and Philon, they have a D Coord Robb Smith who has to be the most underrated assistant in the nation, I do not see much drop off defensively. I'm glad you are on the hogs this week, I certainly hope you are right!
How do you feel about the D personnel? Lost Flowers, Philon, and Spaight...that was big. How do you think they looked last week vs. UTEP? UTEP only had one TD drive in 2Q..other than that Arkansas did a good job limiting to FGs only (which is what you want in a defense especially ATS).
Love hearing from fans of teams because they know their squad inside and out even though they can occasionally be overconfident...but want your thoughts. Thanks
Posted:
#143
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
How do you feel about the D personnel? Lost Flowers, Philon, and Spaight...that was big. How do you think they looked last week vs. UTEP? UTEP only had one TD drive in 2Q..other than that Arkansas did a good job limiting to FGs only (which is what you want in a defense especially ATS).
Love hearing from fans of teams because they know their squad inside and out even though they can occasionally be overconfident...but want your thoughts. Thanks
They lost some guys but remember Trey Flowers and Spaight were seniors, Philon was a Junior. They have guys in Taiwan Johnson, Brooks Ellis, DJ Dean, Rohan Gaines, Henre Toliver that are going to make similar leaps in improvement. Robb Smith is the key, I think he's going to get his guys to produce. Who else can boast consecutive weeks shutting out Ole Miss and LSU 
If momentum between seasons is a real thing I don't know many who can have more than Ark.
Posted:
#147
Quote Originally Posted by longislandwin:
Hey man not too big in to college football but decided to roll with you on these picks.
Hey man not too big in to college football but decided to roll with you on these picks.
Michigan, Cal, Texas- San Antonio, and Arkansas
Lets have a great day tomorrow
BOL!!!
im trusting your judgement
For the record I like Cal more at -12 than at -14 because we win with key #s of 13 and 14 as opposed to -14 where you lose and push.
Interesting because I was reading today that SDSU's coach said they are going to run the ball more to keep the ball out of Cal's hands. I believe him because his QB is horrible. #1 RB Pumphrey only 3.2 yards/clip last week vs. FCS San Diego.
San Diego State DT Christian Heyward is questionable - so that is good. Starting S Piatt for Cal is out too. S Trey Lomax is out for SDSU. I think Heyward will be missed.
SDSU also starting a right guard who hasn't played OL before this season. Interesting but I have seen these types of players convert before and be effective.
Still like my picks - sticking to them. 
Posted:
#148
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
Let's update the card for this week to give some cliff's notes...this card is probably final barring line movement:
Let's update the card for this week to give some cliff's notes...this card is probably final barring line movement:
Michigan -16.5 ... 3 units
UTSA +17 ... 3 units
UTSA +600 ... 1 unit
SMU -3 1H ... 1 unit
FSU -27.5 ... 1 unit
ECU +20 ... 2 units
ECU/Florida under 54 ... 2 units
California -12 ... 2 units
Michigan State -3.5 ... 3 units
WKU +1 ... 1 unit ... 
Texas A&M -30 ... 2 units
Houston +13.5 ... 1 unit
Arkansas -21.5 ... 3 units
Updated my card. Decided to add another unit onto A&M before the # goes up this morning. Also added Ark onto the official card.
Posted:
#149
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
I like the under of 55 more than anything. LY Cincy only had 1 legit TD drive vs. Temple...scored a TD after Temple fumbled and Cincy got ball on Temple's 3 yard line.
Temple only had a total go over 55 points twice last year (Delaware State and Tulsa).
Cincy lost 4 of top 6 DL from last year...lost top 2 LBers (combined for 188.5 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks etc etc).
Temple starting RT Leon Johnson doubtful for Cincy. QB PJ Walker suffered a minor shoulder injury but is probable.
The Penn State win is so big that maybe Temple has an emotional letdown? Game is on the road but I don't know. That's the reason to bet against Temple and looks like the only reason.
My power ratings say Cincinnati -2...so I'm sliigghhttttllly leaning Temple.
I think the best play is the under of 55...but Cincy's front 7 wont' be as good as last year so they will become a popular over team.
There are so many reasons to both sides of the line for Cincy/Temple and O/U...passing all. I'd rather put another unit on one of my other plays than bet this game.
Pass
How in the world do know this much about Temple Cincy in addition to all the other games when a guy just asks you an off the cuff question about it? I've been trying to figure out this side for a week now (and still can't pull the trigger)! Is this your full time job? I'm impressed...
Posted:
#150
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
How in the world do know this much about Temple Cincy in addition to all the other games when a guy just asks you an off the cuff question about it? I've been trying to figure out this side for a week now (and still can't pull the trigger)! Is this your full time job? I'm impressed...
Not that I have the game "figured out" because I don't...but I use the internet for information..and Phil Steels' mag.
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