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Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


It's not a terrible play...but I like the -30 spread (29.5 if you can find it) more. Texas A&M's defense is good enough to be trusted here. I think the -30 is just the safer play. Just my .02
Appreciate the feedback ... Good Luck !!! 


 
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Posted: #52
Hey McGuire what do you think about the LSU Miss State game?
 
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Posted: #53
I will be in attendance for the Michigan game and I will be on the wolverines myself. good luck! Also want to add to your points that experience will be a key factor in this game. Michigan is one of the most experienced team in the nation while Oregon St has 22 players just now seeing the field this year!
 
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Posted: #54
Go blue! Also Oregon state has 22 players just now seeing the field this year. Experience is key and the big house will be rocking
 
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Posted: #55
Solid thread.......
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Tmoney018:

Hey McGuire what do you think about the LSU Miss State game?

I think just about everything megalocks said about the game is right...but LSU could look a little rusty in their first game. I'm leaning LSU
 
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Posted: #57
Do either one of you guys know a b gap from a gap,or who sets the edge for contain once backers read sweep or who stays at home until play has crossed l.o.s.to make sure no one comes out the back door.How about a cover 3 spy or hard nose bump and run compared to bump and run or what a fire zone blitz does to a empty backfield.What is meant by 10 personnel or 22 personnel.??Do you??I wonder what you guys are really betting on.You can know every stat for every game in every conference:; even who is blowing the QB every week b4 game day but what are you wagering on.I ask respectively not as a smart ass who has coached football for 35 years and seen everything that can be seen from a sideline or booth.Lost many a steak dinner over whether a certain kicker could punch this fg thru at this distance.They do not give money away.Nobody does .Neither does vegas.Power ratings??WTF.Find the bad ones.Overrated but way more profitable f to find underated.These touts call it the "market" like some kind of half ass commodities broker.The market.What bullshit.Think ole pony tail Fiest ever played one down of football or forgot what water tasted like on a hot summer day in Dixie.Doubt it.Take a hint from Root if your determined to bet the spread.Fade whoever thinks they know the most.Only proven winner known to man.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


No I changed it from Auburn -10 to the 58.5 under.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=102151433&page=1

My bad  
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Bondsman:

Do either one of you guys know a b gap from a gap,or who sets the edge for contain once backers read sweep or who stays at home until play has crossed l.o.s.to make sure no one comes out the back door.How about a cover 3 spy or hard nose bump and run compared to bump and run or what a fire zone blitz does to a empty backfield.What is meant by 10 personnel or 22 personnel.??Do you??I wonder what you guys are really betting on.You can know every stat for every game in every conference:; even who is blowing the QB every week b4 game day but what are you wagering on.I ask respectively not as a smart behind who has coached football for 35 years and seen everything that can be seen from a sideline or booth.Lost many a steak dinner over whether a certain kicker could punch this fg thru at this distance.They do not give money away.Nobody does .Neither does vegas.Power ratings??WTF.Find the bad ones.Overrated but way more profitable f to find underated.These touts call it the "market" like some kind of half behind commodities broker.The market.What bullshit.Think ole pony tail Fiest ever played one down of football or forgot what water tasted like on a hot summer day in Dixie.Doubt it.Take a hint from Root if your determined to bet the spread.Fade whoever thinks they know the most.Only proven winner known to man.

Went 8-2 last week buddy. If you would have faded me you would have went 2-8. 

LOL that post just cracked me up. Just because you coached football doesn't mean garbage. I bet even the best coaches in the nation can't beat the spread. Just because you know the extreme technical aspects of football doesn't mean you can identify or exploit value in the markets. Doesn't mean you are immune to believe everything you see on ESPN and everything you read. 

Handicapping isn't about knowing plays or techniques. It's about numbers and value. It's about being aware of who is underrated and who is overrated. It's about doing research and behind ahead of the public and markets. It's about buying numbers - not about whether Tech State University runs Spider 2 Y Banana every play....you can watch all the tape in the world - but if you don't understand numbers or how to identify value it doesn't matter. 

I bolded your other comment that is pretty hilarious. Power ratings create the f u c k i n g spread in the first place. That's how Vegas does it. It is a great way to at least get an initial number on a game. Unless you have algorithms and have the resources of a Billy Walter (best sports bettor ever) or Halabob Voulgaris (best NBA bettor ever) - you have to start somewhere. You have to get a number down on paper as a guideline that is to an extent objective. Otherwise you're going to be too subjective on identifying soft lines. 


 
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Posted: #60
They call it the market by the way because the public investment on either side of the spread can move it (much like a stock in the stock market). The spread is a numerical perception of what the outcome of the game will be - and the public can alter this perceived perception ... much like the worth of a company in the stock market.

And why is the spread important? Well - other than betting purposes - it gives the fans, analysts, and anyone else that gives a rip an idea of how much better one team is than the other ...and what will happen in the game. 

 
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Posted: #61
Well said Mcguire... keep those winners coming and disregard the  haters, greatly appreciated. Also thanks to megalocks, wahoos, wiseguy36 and  boom boom as well.
 
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Posted: #62
LOL!!! That was classic, you tell'em MCGuire!!!
 
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Posted: #63
nice job LW and great write ups! 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

You're saying that the Gators don't have an offense. Then how in the world did they score 61 pts. in their first game? The following is a recap of Florida's offensive output in game one. What's not mentioned is the 224 yards rushing they had.


Platooning quarterbacks Will Grier and Treon Harris combined for four touchdown passes and a scoring run on Saturday night as Florida opened the Jim McElwain coaching era with a 61-13 rout of visiting New Mexico State in Gainesville, Fla.

Grier, a redshirt freshman, completed 15 of 17 passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns and added 43 yards and a TD on the ground. Harris, a sophomore, finished 14 of 19 for 215 yards and two scores while rushing for 23 yards for the Gators (1-0), who posted their FBS-leading 26th straight season-opening win.

Florida rolled up total 606 total yards in posting the most points in a coach's debut in program history.


Funny thing is, I can't tell if your talking about Florida's 2014 or 2015 season.  Last year, Florida, in its first game, put up more yards (655) and more points (65).  A lot of people bought into the new uptempo offense led by new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper.  However, we see how that turned out.  They lost 3 out of the next 5. Their wins were very close wins over unranked teams, a 3OT win against Kentucky, and a 10-9 win over Tennessee.  It's a little too early to say the Gators are heading in a new direction, seeing as the team they beat were coming off a 10 game losing streak, and looked absolutely horrid in every aspect of the game.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next write-up

Oklahoma at Tennessee +1 ... 0 units (as of now)

Power ratings: Oklahoma (#21) at Tennessee (#17) = projected spread of UT -5. 

Last week, we had UT for 1 unit vs. Bowling Green and they covered. Don't get me wrong, BG is a prolific offensive team - but I expected mroe from the Vols. QB Matt Johnson threw for 424 yards and 0 ints. The top 2 RBs for BG combined for 4.6 yards/carry. That's just not good enough in my opinion for Tennessee and I dropped them 5 spots in my powers. I wanted to see them put up 50+ points on offense (check) and limit BG's offense. 1 for 2. 

What did these teams lose in the NFL Draft: Oklahoma got 4 drafted in top 120 (DT, DE, OT, TE). Tennessee didn't get one player drafted. Both teams recruit on an elite level so replacing a draft pick isn't a big deal...but it just shows how much UT has returning. 

Last week, OU covered as a 31 pt fave vs. Akron. However, there is cause for concern - and if you want to chalk this up to "This is Week 1 rust" I totally respect that logic - but it has to be mentioned...Oklahoma was only 4/13 on 3rd down. Oklahoma only rushed for 3.0 yards/carry. Maybe I'm being nitpicky - but that kinda matters. Maybe Akron's defense is better than what we are giving them credit for ... it's possible.

On the flip side, UT was 9/16 on 3rd down (BG is worse than Akron on D to be fair)... AND despite giving up 557 total yards to BG, UT held them to 4/18 on 3rd down. BG is a great offensive team but that 4/18 is a key stat so maybe some hidden hope here for the Vols? (Interesting footnote: It is worth nothing - BG ranked #91 nationally in 3rd down % on offense...one has to wonder if their play calling is too predictable on 3rd down and defensive coordinators know what is coming...not good enough for an elite offense like that...at least for me)

Also, you kinda gotta give UT a little edge here. Bowling Green is Oklahoma Lite. They play a similar style and have similar quarterbacks...it is a good warm up game. Then again, if they gave up 557 yards to BG....

UT returns the BULK of their defense, WR corps, OL, and front 7 from last year. Combine this with #1 RB Jalen Hurd and starting QB Josh Dobbs...that's why I rated them #12 overall to start the year. Problem is they have to play like a potential SEC East Champ and I didn't see that vs. BG. 

Oklahoma has two S-T-U-D-S at RB in Samaje Perine (5'11, 237) and Alex Ross (6'1, 220). Both players averaged over 6.5 yards/clip last year. Their top 3 WRs return. It looks like they have upgraded at QB in TxTech transfer Baker Mayfield. However, Oklahoma lost a ton from their OL from last year's team. They lost 3 All-Big 12 OL and only return 2 starters. Lost top 2 DL that I mentioned were drafted...and when I look over their recruiting - they aren't loaded with 4 and 5 star players in the trenches...most of their highly recruiters players are RS Fresh and true Fresh. 

Oklahoma - it is worth mentioning - is pretty small in their front seven. Their 3 down linemen are 283, 274, and 294. Not tiny but you'd expect bigger. At LB they weigh 223, 236, 242, and 229 - however they are highly experienced and return their top 4 LBers. I gotta give a slight size advantage here to the Tennessee offense. 

It's worth mentioning that Oklahoma had the #5 defense yards/play in the Big 12 (conf games only).

 Injuries: Tenn starting FS LaDarrell McNeil is out indefinitely with a neck injury. The Vols also have some depth players still out with injuries but nothing they can't replace. 

Verdict: Still going to wait for positive line movement in favor of Tennessee. This is the rare college game where it is all about who wins in the trenches since the spread offense and wide splits have neutralized a lot of this. I think Tennessee has an edge here...I also think Tennessee has an edge when it comes to overall experience returning. Oklahoma lost their premier DL and OL players from last year - there is no way around that. You can't lose elite players in the trenches and replace them this quickly. They lost too many. 


McQuire..Nice Write up.I'm with you on most of these games except this Oklahoma game. Tenn Def was really unimpressive vs BG. I know BG is talented (Which is why I'm picking them vs Maryland) but Tenn DL was supposed to dominate which they didn't so I'm not to concered with Oklahoma's O-line. I also thing the run game suffered and 3rd downs bc Stoops knew they could handle Akron and didn't want to show is hand.

I also think coaching will be a major factor when teams are fairly even and Stoops gets the edge here. Plus he has talked so much trash about the SEC, he can't go out and lose to a middling SEC school. Think this will be a great game but with Perine and Mayfield, Oklahoma will be able to control the clock and secure the win
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Bondsman:

Do either one of you guys know a b gap from a gap,or who sets the edge for contain once backers read sweep or who stays at home until play has crossed l.o.s.to make sure no one comes out the back door.How about a cover 3 spy or hard nose bump and run compared to bump and run or what a fire zone blitz does to a empty backfield.What is meant by 10 personnel or 22 personnel.??Do you??I wonder what you guys are really betting on.You can know every stat for every game in every conference:; even who is blowing the QB every week b4 game day but what are you wagering on.I ask respectively not as a smart ass who has coached football for 35 years and seen everything that can be seen from a sideline or booth.Lost many a steak dinner over whether a certain kicker could punch this fg thru at this distance.They do not give money away.Nobody does .Neither does vegas.Power ratings??WTF.Find the bad ones.Overrated but way more profitable f to find underated.These touts call it the "market" like some kind of half ass commodities broker.The market.What bullshit.Think ole pony tail Fiest ever played one down of football or forgot what water tasted like on a hot summer day in Dixie.Doubt it.Take a hint from Root if your determined to bet the spread.Fade whoever thinks they know the most.Only proven winner known to man.


But what about the KY Jelly run stop double wide xt spider trips left? Come on bro. I appreciate u knowing fototball plays but why are you even on here then? Just trolling looking to start a useless thread so people like me get irritated and feel the need to respond.


****keep up the great work MCGUIRE! Thanks for another angle and insight to some games.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by AllAmerican99:


McQuire..Nice Write up.I'm with you on most of these games except this Oklahoma game. Tenn Def was really unimpressive vs BG. I know BG is talented (Which is why I'm picking them vs Maryland) but Tenn DL was supposed to dominate which they didn't so I'm not to concered with Oklahoma's O-line. I also thing the run game suffered and 3rd downs bc Stoops knew they could handle Akron and didn't want to show is hand.

I also think coaching will be a major factor when teams are fairly even and Stoops gets the edge here. Plus he has talked so much trash about the SEC, he can't go out and lose to a middling SEC school. Think this will be a great game but with Perine and Mayfield, Oklahoma will be able to control the clock and secure the win

For the record before I say this I'm not on any side here. I think it is a close call either way ... and UT could very well crap the bed and you profit off that. 

However, the run game suffering and being bad on 3rd down - impossible to know if Stoops is or isn't tipping his hand here. I think the same can be said of the Tennessee defense? Maybe they didn't want to put anything on tape for Oklahoma to see. 

Secondly, I don't think there is a massive coaching edge here - if there is one. Butch Jones is one hell of a coach - he won at Central Michigan and Cincinnati. 

I have concerns with the Tennessee DL as well - don't get me wrong...but I also have a lot of concerns with Oklahoma that I mentioned. There are legit concerns with both teams ... they rate at 17 and 21 on my powers not 4 and 6 for a reason. 

That said - I honestly think this game is going to come down to some random plays, bad calls, and other football weirdness that I as a handicapper want absolutely no part of either way. If this gets up to Tennessee +3 .... I'll think about it. 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Back to the picks

Kentucky at South Caroilna (-7.5) 

Power ratings: Kentucky (43rd) at South Carolina (42nd) = South Car -3.5 projected spread

Didn't do well last week with my Kentucky pick. We were looking good at end of 1H (24-7) but several reasons for our demise that shouldn't have been. UK has one of the best young kickers in the nation in Austin MacGinnis who missed a 46 yarder from middle of hashes + a PAT. That left 4 points off the board. Secondly, UK defense got gassed in 2nd half because the offense couldn't sustain drives. Why? QB Patrick Towles' inconsistency reared its ugly head. He didn't look very good. Dropped UK 23 spots in my powers to a more rational spot at 43. 

South Carolina covered thanks to 3 massive interceptions in the red zone. If one of the first two (in 1st and 3rd quarters) wouldn't have been and UNC kicks a FG instead we cover. Shouldn't have been that close of a game. Still liked my pick and I would do it all over again if I could. 

How will this game play out? Kentucky struggles with its rush defense because their LB play is abominable. They have a key starter out in WILB (weak inside linebacker for the handicapper beginners here ... in the 3-4 multiple defense UK runs) in Ryan Flannigan. He is questionable for Saturday's contest. His health is paramout to taking Kentucky here...and I'm not even sure I Like UK enough to take them with Flannigan...just saying. It's kind of a reason to fade UK here if you want to. South Carolina's entire offense revolves around the running game and the read option. They can't throw the football. Even #2 WR Deebo Samuel is questionable for South Car on Saturday. Maybe UK plays better under the lights on the road (not out of the question...nearly upset @ Florida last year as 17.5 dog) but who knows - maybe they play worse. 

Kentucky's offense all hinges on Patrick Towles. The OL isn't great for Kentucky, but South Carolina's DL and defense overall doesn't scare anyone. Based on what I saw vs. UNC - they will have their moments good and bad much like UK defensively. But it all comes down to Towles. If Towles is phenomenal(ly consistent) this could be a UK blowout - I really believe that. They have the talent at the RB and WR position to get explosive plays in run and pass game...and if Towles showed good consistency I think they would cover without a sweat. 

However, if UK has bad Towles then it is completely up in the air whether they could cover or not. 

Basically, I'm passing on this game right now depending on the health of Flannigan and some other injuries for both teams. Just too early...and most of the value is gone both ways at 7.5. Yes, my powers favor Kentucky...but it only takes one bad Patrick Towles INT or incompletion for us to lose the bet...and I just don't trust him + don't think we are getting enough points here. 

I'm waiting it out. Think there are better games on the board. UK didn't look great vs. UL Lafayette....so maybe if they show a great improvement from G1 to G2 then you're banking on something we just don't know. 

Pass 



A few things: 

1. Ryan Flannigan has been declared as "very doubtful" today by Stoops. He is out. Big loss for UK. 

2. Looking back - I think UK's defense played not as bad as I thought. They were on the field a lot in the second half (time of possession: 37 minutes for ULL and 23 for Kentucky). UK's defense was tired and that's when ULL broke it open offensively. 

-56 yard TD run with 1:38 left in 3Q by ULL RB Torrey Pierce
-3&out for UK
-UK penalty on 1st down 15 yards on defense in 4Q. Two plays later a 26 yard TD run by Pierce again. 
-Towles INT on very next play
-QB Jalen Nixon 23 yard TD run in next drive
-3&out next drive by UK

Before this 23 point unanswered run by ULL, UK was up 33-10 with 4:00 left in 3rd Q. 

The reason this wasn't a cover wasn't because of the defense in my opinion - it was because the offense couldn't stay on the field long enough for the defense to catch their breath. Also, UK's explosive plays in first half contributed to UK being on defense longer than normal. It's great that you score points on the board quickly, but that will fatigue the defense more greatly.


3. Elijah McGuire only averaged 3.2 yards/carry. Held ULL's QBs to 5.7 ypa. 2 INTs on defense. Very solid #s

This spread has been flirting with 8.5 all day long now...and the more I think about it the more I think that South Carolina has a one-dimensional offense that UK can limit.

I will play this game if the spread ever jumps up to 10...but again for now it is a pass. 
 
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Posted: #69
Is la texh still a play tonight at -1 1/2??? Gl this season!!! Cant wait to win some money this yr!!!
 
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Posted: #70
great write up hope to see more BOL, something in my gut tells me to lay off the CAL game, don't know why.  Maybe because they always play over their head when they face the Pac 10.
 
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Posted: #71
Would you say la tech ML is a good bet? Seeing as the line is now - 2 1/2 for tech?
And gl this season! Ready to make some ????????
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner18:

great write up hope to see more BOL, something in my gut tells me to lay off the CAL game, don't know why.  Maybe because they always play over their head when they face the Pac 10.

Most of my projected spreads based on power ratings match up to current spreads or pretty close so as far as making picks I think I am done. 

If you guys want me to preview games I can do that just post what game you want I'll try to get to it. 

Quote Originally Posted by Ryanwood08:

Is la texh still a play tonight at -1 1/2??? Gl this season!!! Cant wait to win some money this yr!!!

I've sided with WKU +1 for 1 unit. 
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Ryanwood08:

Would you say la tech ML is a good bet? Seeing as the line is now - 2 1/2 for tech?
And gl this season! Ready to make some ????????

I think you mean WKU. 
 
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Posted: #74
Very thorough, very thoughtful. Like the thread. Also, the comparison of sports betting to stock market selections is appropriate. You are not betting on winners and losers, you are betting on how a team (or company) performs against expectations.

A company's stock price can plummet after they announce they made $1 billion last quarter because they were projected to make $1.1 billion. The opposite is true if a company loses money, but not as much as they were projected to lose.

In sports betting and in playing the stock market, you are betting on an organization's performance against public perception, competition and market conditions (good and bad macroeconomic conditions, industry regulations in stocks; things like weather, referees/officials in sports).

There are more similarities between the two than most people realize. Nice to see that you understand that, and nice to see you having some early success this season with all the hours you are putting in on the research side. Best of luck the rest of the way!

 
 
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Posted: #75

Next write up:

Missouri at Arkansas State (+10.5) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Missouri (44th) at Arkansas State (89th) = 9.5 projected spread

Missouri was one of my top fade teams to start the year. I've discussed it in depth already so here is the briefing: Maty Mauk one of most overrated QBs in nation, lost entire WR corps, lost 2nd rd draft pick from OL, lost top 5 DL including a 1st and 2nd rd picks...too much talent and class gone to be the same team. 

LW, Missouri was very mediocre vs. SE Missouri State. Only 4 TDs all game...5/13 on 3rd down. 3.0 yards/carry and QB Mauk only 8.2 ypa...I want that number to be 10-12 vs. a bad FCS team. Mauk also threw an INT. 

On the other hand, Arkansas State got blown out by a team that rates #4 in my powers in USC. No shame in getting blown out against elite competition...happens. 

Ark State returns QB Freddie Knighten as the starter. 7.7 ypa last season for 3,277 yards and 3.4/1 TD-INT ratio....also had 969 rushing yards last year but lost 7 fumbles. Entire WR corps returns for Ark state. 3 of 5 starters return on OL. Nearly the entire DL returns for Ark State. Ark State lost starting MIKE LB and 4/5 DBs. 

Both teams lost a lot from last year - but I think Missouri lost a little more. Nearly the entire offense for Arkansas State returns and they can still put up points. Missouri lost the heart and soul of their team: their outstanding DL. I think it will take some time for their WRs to settle in. 

Injuries: Missouri star C Evan Boehm (#4 senior center by NFLDraftScout.com) and starting FS Ian Simon are questionable for Saturday and #1 RB Russell Hansbrough is also questionable. 

Leaning Arkansas State...but not getting enough value with the #...I wanted to see 14-17 here and there simply isn't enough for me to make a bet. Also waiting on official injuries for the 3 players I mentioned for Missouri. If 2 of those 3 are out, I migghttt consider playing this for a unit...again I just don't love the #. 

Pass

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