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Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

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Posted: #176
Quote Originally Posted by sooner44:

Never Fails someone comes out with all their Stats and knowledge and write ups with break downs on each team, People read and think the person is a football wiz. then they lose all their money.

Unbelievable.



All the (good) analysis in the world won't necessarily amount to anything once a game kicks off and a bunch of 18 - 23 knucklehead jocks start smashing each other in the mouths. 

I for one liked the thoughts that the OP shared with the board and will look for next week's thread when it comes out. 

For those who lost all their 'stack' on just one week's worth of games, I'd recommend better money management.  Even the best of cappers can have a truly awful multi-week stretch.  Gotta plan the bets out carefully so one can live to fight another day/week should bad luck reign.
 
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Posted: #177
The guy is down 2 units plus juice and winning his last few plays . What a bunch of babies. He gives great insight on his picks . Nobody is forcing you to play them. Don't listen to these 12yr olds . Continued success.
 
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Posted: #178
This thread is fantastic. I just started following it and im glad i found it. I gambled big on the michigan game as suggested and won enough to cover all other bets for the day had they all lost(they did not). You dont have to play all the picks suggested in this thread. I picked the one's i liked and played those. This is still gambling so no matter how good the analysis anything can still happen. Far be it from a blackjack table this is educated gambling but a gamble none the less. Really enjoy the thread please keep the picks flowing.
 
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Posted: #179
Loved the thread. Capping and bankroll building is a marathon, not a sprint.

Continue posting as you usually would. Great info regardless of what anyone says.
 
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Posted: #180
By my calculation down 1.9 units for the week. 

I really liked UK at South Car preseason not sure why I didn't pull the trigger. ... gunshy after my ULL Lafayette loss

I'll go over some of my picks in another thread. 
 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Our picks were super-accurate last week (8/10 for 80%). Unfortunately, QB Marquise Williams decided to play horribly in the opener (2 critical INTs in red zone in 1 and 3 qtrs) and Kentucky garbage the bed (I'll own I had too much confidence and have adjusted my power ratings accordingly). 

Hope to have another good week. Going to post a lot of write ups throughout the week whether I'm betting or not. If you have a question on a game I'll try to answer your question as soon as a I can.

Onto the first pick...

Florida State -27.5 ...... 1 unit
Power ratings USF #106 FSU #12 (-30 projected spread)

FSU Briefing: Everett Golson is one of the most prolific passers in FBS and had a great game vs. Texas State last week (76%, 12.1 ypa, 4 tds, 0 ints). Not saying I trust him against a great defense yet, but he can cover a spread and has the weapons around him to do so. FSU is well-rounded at RB (Dalvin Cook 8.2 ypc vs. TXSt, Mario Pender 6.6 ypc vs. TxSt) at WR (4 WRs with 2+ catches lw vs. TX St). FSU recruits well enough on defense to reload so not many concerns here in a game like this. 

USF Briefing: USF covered big last week vs. a bad Florida AM team, but I'm not sold. New starter Quinton Flowers only 141 yards passing (8.8 ypa)...what is this going to go down to against Florida State? USF only with one WR with legit experience (Adams 23 catches last year) as well as 3 starters on OL. USF doesn't have the pass rush to threaten Golson which means the DBs are going to have to be outstanding coverage to limit passing games. 

I don't see this game being close. I'm not a fan of head coach Willie Taggert (wins don't match recruiting rankings) and I think 27.5 is a beatable spread for Golson & Co. FSU will be going for style points to make the playoffs. I think FSU rolls here. Florida State is going to force Flowers to throw the ball, and that's I think where turnovers come into play. 

The counter here is USF will want to play great in a big-brother in-state rivalry...but that doesn't mean they are a lock to cover and that's simply square-logic. 

I like FSU - I don't love FSU - and I like that we are winning the key # of 28 as well as 30 and 31. Lay the points but conservatively for 1 unit. 

Golson with 302 yards passing vs. UTEP..."square logic" applied here and USF's defense stepped up + Golson played horribly in the passing game. Only 163 yards passing limited the offense especially in the first half. 

The play should have just been passing here since it was an in-state rivalry game...but I guess I underrated USF a bit. 
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick: East Carolina + 20 ... 2 units
Under 54 Points ECU/Florida ... 2 units

Power ratings: East Carolina (63rd) at Florida (31st) = projected spread of -11. 


I've been waiting for this game all offseason and it is looking like we are getting a great # as well as injuries in our favor (star fresh LT Martez Ivey likely out as well as S Keanu Neal who is questionable for UF). 

No doubt QB Shane Carden will be missed as well as WR Justin Hardy (4th rd pick) and WR Cam Worthy ...and I'm not saying backup named starter Blake Kemp is a stud - but I don't think he has to be to cover a 20 point spread. Here's the deal - ECU returns 4 of 5 OL up front and has a great RB in Chris Hairston (17 carries, 73 yards, 4.3 ypc LY vs. UF in bowl game). 

Florida has one of the best defenses in the nation - so I'm not arguing that ECU has to score a ton of points here. In fact, I think if ECU can manage 10 points in this contest the likely result is that worst case scenario we will push. Why????

Because Florida doesn't have an offense...and when I saw the spread here at 20, I couldn't really believe it. 

Does Florida have a QB: Will Grier and Treon Harris? No. 

Does Florida have a RB: A proven one in Kelvin Taylor. His stats LY vs. ECU were 4 carries for 0 yards with his longest run being 5 yards. ECU returns the bulk of their defense - not concerned here. 

Does Florida have an OL: 4 OL were drafted last year. Their best OL is left tackle Martez Ivey (blue chip recruit) who as I mentioned earlier is out as of right now with a torn miniscus. Florida has a patchwork OL that is very inexperienced. 

Hey, ECU only beat Towson by 8 last week - which is why I think bettors are overreacing to that result and just think they will be a pushover vs. Florida. 

Not that I don't think Week 1 results are important - but personnel is more important. How is Florida going to score 30+ in this game without an offensive line? 

Take the Pirates and the points. I'd be scared to death to take Florida here considering what they have offensively to work with. 

For the record - I also think the under here of 54 is a great number as well. Like the Washington/Boise game both teams lack star quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard. Making seperate bets of under and +20 to limit my risk of the parlay...and I'm not a fan of parlays, but ECU +20/under makes a lot of sense as well. 



ECU +20 was a great pick. ECU shockingly with 346 passing yards against a great UF def backfield which really hurt our under #. I thought they would cover ... also 700 yards offense b/w these teams is a surprising #. Think UF defense blew the under here. only off by a couple points.
 
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Posted: #183
McGuire, hopefully you understand that there are idiots out there who think you have to win every play, and hopefully you find it easy to ignore them. I for one enjoy your write ups and look forward to reading them every week!
 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Last pick of the night...more write-ups tomorrow night ...

California -12 ... 2 units

Power ratings: San Diego State (86th...adjusted from last version fyi) at California (34th)...projected spread of -16.5

This is the stereotypical game where we absolutely love betting a future NFL quarterback in Jared Goff and are fading an absolutely horrible QB in Max Smith. 
 
Let's talk about Smith for a little bit. Here are his ypa #s in from Week 3 on in his 2013 season at Kentucky: 5.5, 4.5, 4.8, 4.7, 9.3, 6.7. The 9.3 game was against Georgia in a blowout and he only threw 16 passes. He isn't an accurate quarterback. 

In 2012, Max Smith got benched after a 37/60, 332 yard performance (5.5 ypa), with 2 TDs and 4 INTs in a loss to Western Kentucky. 

Last week against FCS San Diego, he was 9/21, 43%, 100 yards pass, 4.8 ypa, 0 tds, 1 int. 

Was San Diego state able to run the ball against FCS San Diego? 4.4 yards/clip and 1 rush TD. 

San Diego State has a pretty solid defense and almost everyone is back except for the LB corps that lost a couple starters...and statistically they look solid (22nd nationally in def yards/play in 2014)...but you have to look closer at these stats because look at their schedule last year in the MWC: Northern Arizona, UNC, Oregon State, UNLV (who lit them up for 346 yards passing fyi), fresno st, new mexico, hawaii, @ boise (played well - 6.7 def ypa 2 ints). 

I'm not sold. Jared Goff is a different animal. He threw for 309, 75%, 9.7 ypa, 3 tds, 1 int against Grambling last week. He's no joke though - threw for nearly 4,000 yards, 62%, 7.8 ypa, 5/1 TD-INT ratio last year in the difficult Pac 12 ... and nearly everyone is back this season except a 52 catch WR and 2 OL that didn't get drafted. 

The question for Cal is there defense..but with SDSU not much scares us. Nearly the entire 2-deep returns - so while I'm not saying they are Alabama they don't have to be to cover 12 points at home here against an SDSU team with mediocre QB play. 

I've got the #1 rated junior QB in the country by NFLDraftScout.com laying 12 points at home to San Diego State. Hey - maybe that sounds too simple...but maybe it doesn't have to be complicated. 


Cal with an easy cover. Score was 7-0 SDSU after 1Q. Qtrs 2-4 = 35-0 Cal. Fluky 1Q and I'll take the cover
 
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next write-up

Oregon at Michigan State (-3.5) ... 3 units

Power ratings: Oregon (19th) at Michigan State (3rd) = projected spread of -11. 

Oregon was a 35 point fave vs. FCS Eastern Washington. Oregon scored 61 points (squares love this). Oregon gave up 31 first downs, 43% defensive 3rd down conversions, 3.6 yards/rush, 8.0 yards/pass, and 100% defensive 4th down conversions. 

I had Oregon 15th in my power ratings in Week 1. Dropping them only 4 spots in my opinion is being generous. What if their defense is really bad? Oregon lost some experience in their front 7 but nothing they can't replace (though those 3rd/4th down #s look awful and are cause for concern). Their issues are at defensive back - and don't get me wrong they have talent but this is the biggest games these kids have ever played in. Oregon's back 4 goes: Redshirt Fresh, True Fresh, Redshirt Fresh, Redshirt Soph. 

I don't mind inexperience when the talent wins and performs...but the E Washington game was an embarrassment. If Oregon's offense wasn't a juggernaut they would have lost. 42 points to an FCS team? 

Oregon is ranked 7th in the nation on reputation alone. They lost the #2 pick in the Draft at QB, 2 OL drafted in top 75 (which means they were beasts in college....3 starters total), and All-American corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu ... as well as two 2nd team All Pac-12 DBs. Oregon lost A LOT from last year's team. And I'm not saying they aren't good - but 7th is way too high. #19 overall is something I'm very comfortable with and they could be worse than teams like Louisville, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, Miss State, etc. 

Michigan State didn't cover last week vs. Western Michigan - but W Michigan is a good team that wins games. They are no slouch and have a ton of talent and experience offensively. That's why I passed. 

 This game kind of reminds me of my Texas A&M pick last week...and I'm not saying this pick is a lock because I liked the last one - but it's a similar scenario. Oregon is getting this +3.5 number because of last year's team...not this year's team. Basically what Vegas is saying is that this game is a pick em on a neutral field. Not even close in my book. Same thing LW with Arizona State vs. Texas A&M. Arizona State doesn't have last year's team and neither does Texas A&M. The public and Vegas to an extent haven't adjusted their perceptions to this year's teams (because that's hard to do). 


A lot of reason I like Michigan State here. They have a proven QB and OL and experience on defense. I like the home field advantage in a massive game against an inexperienced secondary. I'll take the future NFL QB in Connor Cook any day and twice on Saturday. Revenge factor after losing on the road last year. 

Michigan State -3.5 for 3 units. We're fading the Ducks I believe are overrated, as well as the public who doesn't believe in State because of their non-cover vs. a good W Michigan team. My advice is to grab the 3.5 now and don't wait for it to go down to 3. This isn't going down to 3. Too many questions with Oregon and when people finally realize they played like crap vs. Eastern Washington I think this spread could very well go up to 6 or 7. 


MSU 31 Oregon 28. MSU's pass defense disappointing giving up 7.9 ypa. MSU offense only 3/12 on 3rd...defense was 4/13 on 3rd...thought the offense would have performed better than that # on 3rd down. Pretty much the difference in the game and why they didn't cover. Oregon's 2nd TD drive in 4Q buried us. I would still take MSU -3.5 if I could do it over again..just on the other side of variance here
 
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Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick: 

SMU -3 (1st Half play) ... 1 unit

Power ratings: North Texas (111th) at SMU (115th) = projected spread of -2

I think my powers are off here for the record. Matt Davis was outstanding vs. Baylor in the opening game. 7.2 ypa, 2 tds, 2 ints as well (breaking news: baylor has a defense) and 116 yards rushing. 

North Texas returns one starter on the OL. The other 4 starters have a total of 2 career starts on their belts. North Texas also lost 3 of top 4 DBs from last year's team. #1 LB Derek Akunne also gone (14% of team tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 PBU, 3 FF...huge leadership to replace there). 

QB Andrew McNulty isn't a world beater. 6.4 ypa last season 6 TD/7 INTs. I expect his sack rate to go up as well with a new OL. 

I think there is some advantage here to a very inexperienced North Texas Team going on the road in the first half. Love that SMU got their tails kicked in last week so they will be hungry. Everyone made a big deal about Chad Morris last week - he can't outcoach Art Briles with worse players...but he can outcoach North Texas with better players. 

1 unit play. 

SMU covered the full game spread. Woke up in 2nd half only 7-6 in 1st half. 
 
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Kansas State at Texas-San Antonio +17 ... 3 units
Texas-San Antonio +600 ML ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Kansas State (46th) at Texas San-Antonio (90th) = projected spread of +8

If you analyze the logos, you'll probably say "Kansas State is always a traditional power in the Big 12. They will route UTSA here."

Last week, UTSA might have been the Cover of Week 1. Going into Arizona (#25 on my powers) they were a 32.5 point dog. Nobody gave them a chance because they returned 5 starters from last year's team. 

QB Blake Bogenschultz: 7.7 ypa, 332 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. UTSA gained 3.9 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA held super soph QB Anu Soloman to 6.4 ypa. Held Arizona to 4.3 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA outgained Arizona by 133 total yards. UTSA was 8/19 on 3rd down. 

After reading all that - you might believe UTSA might be BETTER than Arizona...not a 32.5 point dog despite the final score (and maybe they are!). Conservatively, I bumped them about 20 spots in my power ratings - but they could keep going up and could be underrated. 

Kansas State in Week 1 was very unimpressive vs. FCS South Dakota. KSU QB Joe Hubener threw for 50% completions, 147 total passing yards...against an FCS team. Translation = KSU doesn't have a QB. Hubener is the backup, but Jesse Ertz is out indefinitely with an injured knee and "likely to miss the rest of the season" -KansasCity.com

Kansas State outgained USD by 66 total yards (25% more yards). USD was 8/18 on 3rd down. KSU only 5/12 on 3rd down. 

Starting SS and leader of the DBs Dante Barnett (leading tackler last year, 8 PBUs, 3 INTs) is quesitonable for Saturday's game. I'll take that as a bonus when I'm capping but not banking on it. Don't need it - but it's nice if he doesn't play. 

KSU team briefing: Lost a ton from last year's team. Nickle Randall Evans was drafted in 6th round. Star QB Jake Waters is gone (3500 yards, 22 tds, 7 ints). WR Tyler Lockett was a 3rd round pick at #69 overall- he's gone.  #2 WR Curry Sexton (1,059 yards) is also gone. These two WRs averaged 10.1 yards/target. The next two WRs that return: 4.2 and 8.4 yards/target. Kansas State also lost its top 2 LBers in Jonathan Truman (15% of team tackles with 103.5, 4.5 TFLs) and Dakorey Johnson (9 TFLs). 

While Bill Snyder is a great coach and gets results, I think this is the year that his mediocre recruiting catches up to him. Kansas State does not have a size or speed advantage over UTSA. As a handicapper, this game has double digit underdog upset potential written all over it. KSU lost a ton of talent in losing QB Waters, WR Lockett, WR Sexton, top 2 LBers, #1 DE (Mueller), with their best DB being questionable for the game in SS Barnett. To boot, UTSA played outstanding vs. a good Arizona team and Kansas State was unimpressive vs. South Dakota (went 2-10 in 2014 and 4-8 in 2013). 

After I did all this research, I realize I was also giving credit for team logos in my power ratings. Kansas State should really be around 70-80 in my powers...they just don't have the personnel to be that great. Even if I was being conservative here, I'd say Kansas State should be a 3 point favorite or so...but definitely nothing more than 6 points. 17 points is insane and definitely based off on last year's stats. Everybody is giving UTSA crap for what they lost from last year's team...but what about Kansas State????

Taking UTSA +17 for 3 units. I'm also going to put in a patented CRAZY MAN MONEYLINE PICK INSPIRED BY TRAIN69 1 unit on UTSA +600. 



Bogenschultz annihilates Zona - plays like crap vs. KSU at home. After UTSA's first drive, they punted or turned over on downs on all of their other possesions for the game. After what they did that is truly unbelievable - much less at home. 

Don't regret the pick honestly - that was just ridiculous. 
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


Next write up:

Missouri at Arkansas State (+10.5) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Missouri (44th) at Arkansas State (89th) = 9.5 projected spread

Missouri was one of my top fade teams to start the year. I've discussed it in depth already so here is the briefing: Maty Mauk one of most overrated QBs in nation, lost entire WR corps, lost 2nd rd draft pick from OL, lost top 5 DL including a 1st and 2nd rd picks...too much talent and class gone to be the same team. 

LW, Missouri was very mediocre vs. SE Missouri State. Only 4 TDs all game...5/13 on 3rd down. 3.0 yards/carry and QB Mauk only 8.2 ypa...I want that number to be 10-12 vs. a bad FCS team. Mauk also threw an INT. 

On the other hand, Arkansas State got blown out by a team that rates #4 in my powers in USC. No shame in getting blown out against elite competition...happens. 

Ark State returns QB Freddie Knighten as the starter. 7.7 ypa last season for 3,277 yards and 3.4/1 TD-INT ratio....also had 969 rushing yards last year but lost 7 fumbles. Entire WR corps returns for Ark state. 3 of 5 starters return on OL. Nearly the entire DL returns for Ark State. Ark State lost starting MIKE LB and 4/5 DBs. 

Both teams lost a lot from last year - but I think Missouri lost a little more. Nearly the entire offense for Arkansas State returns and they can still put up points. Missouri lost the heart and soul of their team: their outstanding DL. I think it will take some time for their WRs to settle in. 

Injuries: Missouri star C Evan Boehm (#4 senior center by NFLDraftScout.com) and starting FS Ian Simon are questionable for Saturday and #1 RB Russell Hansbrough is also questionable. 

Leaning Arkansas State...but not getting enough value with the #...I wanted to see 14-17 here and there simply isn't enough for me to make a bet. Also waiting on official injuries for the 3 players I mentioned for Missouri. If 2 of those 3 are out, I migghttt consider playing this for a unit...again I just don't love the #. 

Pass


Maty Mauk (1st team McGuire's All-Overrated team) 4.1 ypa, 3 INTs... Missouri only 4.1 yards/carry ... Missouri is in trouble. Don't regret passing here as Ark State not even with 220 yards of offense....just looking to possibly fade vs. UCONN next week...definitely fading vs. Kentucky
 
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick: 

Houston +13.5 at Louisville ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Houston (73rd) at Louisville (24th) = -16

Some psychology and injury play in here from my side - which is why I am going against my power ratings if you were curious. 

Louisville is MAJORLY banged up at receiver...and remember they lost their entire WR corps from last year. So the few talented guys they do have are all out or banged up. #1 WR James Quick is doubtful for Saturday. UAB Transfer WR Jamari Staples also doubtful. JUCO TE Cole Hikutini is questionable. Two other backup WRs are also questionable. The only WR threat that UL has is true fresh 6'6 WR Devante Peete (3 catches vs. Auburn...one 35 yd reception). 

Houston returns their entire starting set of DBs - and UL doesn't have a passing QB worth mentioning. True fresh QB Lamar Jackson is starting - he was 9/20 for 100 yards passing vs. Auburn. He's a dual threat runner who is very fast - but Houston knows UL is banged up at WR so I expect them to do a fairly decent job containing Jackson after watching the tape from Auburn. 

The reality is Auburn would have covered last week if Johnson didn't throw 3 interceptions. The score was 24-10 AU entering the 4Q and Auburn simply blew the cover. 

I expect QB Greg Ward (7.6 ypa last year as a soph) to play better vs. UL's defense. Houston is also inexperinced at WR and they lost 3 starters on OL.

LW Houston gave up 264 yards receiving to one player (TN Tech's Brock McCoin). Gave up a 71 yard TD catch early in 2Q. Gave up a 47 yard pass to McCoin in 4Q on 3rd down (score 45-10 a the time...so backups likely in game). Also gave up a 77 yard catch to McCoin in garbage time on 3rd & 5 (with 0:15 left in game). Other than those 3 plays Houston's D was great (TTech horrible though). Those plays don't concern me for Houston...possibly looking ahead to UL a little too. 

Gotta get to the psychology of this game. Houston is sandwiched between Auburn and Clemson on the UL schedule. UL plays Clemson on ESPN next Thursday night in their ACC season opener. Lots of look-a-head here for UL. 

I expect UL to play down to the level of competition this week. They don't have a passing game so if Houston can manage around 17-20 points offensively I expect a cover. 

Also I think the under of 54 is a good bet if you are a totals player. UL has no passing game to speak of and Houston is dynamite at DB...I think Houston should have decent success on 3rd down D - especially considering they know that UL has to run the ball and won't want to pass. If Houston's DC is smart he'll play his safeties closer to the LOS in this game and use a lot of run blitzes...but we'll see. 

1 unit pick


Woulda coulda shoulda but this should have been my pick of the week. The sandwich game aspect + bad matchup for Louisville WRs...I was all over this and only laid a unit. Disappointed here with myself.
 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick: 

Toledo at Arkansas (-21.5) ... 4 unit Pick of the Week

Power ratings: Toledo (64th) at Arkansas (17th) = projected spread of -17

*Game is on neutral field in Little Rock not Fayetteville for some reason...but I still gave Ark a 3 pt home field advantage built into spread. 

Toledo is not the same team as last year...not even close (at least for W2 vs. Pig Suey). Toledo lost their entire starting OL from last year. Star #1 RB Kareem Hunt is out with a suspension. #2 RB Terry Swanson is banged up and questionable. Starting DE Allen Covington also out with a suspension (and they need him for their run defense. Starting MLB Murdock is questionable. Starting CB Jordan Martin is out. 2nd string CB Mathis is questionable. 

That's not the same team or anything close to it. On top of that - I think the wrong QB is starting. Sophomore Logan Woodside was outstanding last year - 7.6 ypa, 19 TDs, 8 ints, 62.5%. Ely wasn't that great last week in the 1H from the stats I looked at vs. Stony Brook. 

This game is going to be a bloodbath. Toledo weighs 265 - 285 (NG) - 305 on the DL. None of the LBers are above 235 pounds. Very small in front 7 and since Arkansas has one of the best run blocking OLs in the nation I think they will take advantage. 

Now let's talk about how these teams did LY ATS. Arkansas was 10-3 ATS last year including 4-0 in non-conf games (including spreads of -41.5, -13.5, and -24.5). On the other hand, Toledo was very mediocre ATS. 5-7-1 ATS record with covers over Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois (by 0.5 points), Central Michigan, and New Hampshire. Keep in mind Kareem Hunt played in all but 3 games last year...Toledo went 1-2 ATS without Hunt. The best teams Toledo played last year were Missouri (lost by 25) and at Cincinnati (lost by 24). I'm not big on previous seasons ATS records...but it does show that Toledo hardly played teams with class and Arkansas was severely undervalued by the market. They are being undervalued again...greatly. 

For the record, my power ratings did not take into account any of the suspensions or injuries. I wasn't looking at Toledo LW because I don't bet on FCS games so I didn't read up too much on Toledo. But if I had to handicap where they would be based on the team they will field on Saturday - I would rank them somewhere around #90 overall...which would create a power ratings spread of -24. 

This looks like a 30+ point blowout for Arkansas. When you consider how Toledo is absolutely decimated with injuries and suspensions. 

Considering how mediocre Toledo was LW vs. Stony Brook I really like Arkansas here. I don't understand why the public hasn't pounded Arkansas. Toledo is going to be rusty after only playing 1 half of football. Arkansas doesn't get into their SEC schedule until Sept. 26...they will be focused here. Considering what Toledo doesn't have in terms of personnel losses for Saturday I can't believe this line has only moved +0.5 points since it opened. For some reason the public acts like Arkansas doesn't exist. 

Arkansas BIG...4 unit play and my pick of the week. 


Everything I wrote here was purely factual. Maybe Toledo had a little bit of "nobody believes in us"...but when it comes down to it I gotta blame Bielema. His team wasn't mentally ready. I listened to an Arkansas podcast last night and unlike what we thought here in this thread - they said that playing in Little Rock was something Bielema hated - the 3.5 hour drive. But to come out like that to a decimated Toledo team ... that's a fireable game. I really believe that. Toledo had no business covering this game. They really didn't. Not when you talk about the talent for Arkansas at RB and OL. Inexcuseable. Sometimes you can make a great pick and it just doesn't go your way. Because a team shits the bed ... - happens it is gambling. 
 
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Posted: #191
keep up the good work man. You can't get them all right BUT I can see that you do know your football. You were spot on in many of the games. I read your analysis of east carolina and it became an easy decision for me. Thank you!
 
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Posted: #192
Michigan -16.5 ... 3 units 
UTSA +17 ... 3 units 
UTSA +600 ... 1 unit 
SMU -3 1H ... 1 unit  
FSU -27.5 ... 1 unit   
ECU +20 ... 2 units 
ECU/Florida under 54 ... 2 units  
California -12 ... 2 units 
Michigan State -3.5 ... 3 units   
WKU +1 ... 1 unit ... 
Texas A&M -30 ... 2 units 
Houston +13.5 ... 1 unit 
Arkansas -21.5 ... 4 units   

For the record, I had 4 units on Arkansas not 3...just to be honest that was a typo. 

-5.5 units for the week. 

Disappointing to say the least. Couple of them were close like the ECU under, Michigan State I feel like should have covered and didn't, SMU - I should have bet the full game but did a stupid first half play...and what can you say about Arkansas...abomination of a coaching job and on the players too. Unprofessional. 

Time to regroup and starting working to get our money back. Power ratings and projected spreads coming soon.

 
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Posted: #193
Arkansas killed me this weekend, luckily I bought 2 points for michagan st had Oklahoma and Flordia 2st half under.. This is gambling you have tough weeks. Your analysis are great.. Keep them going and don't get discouraged by others who want to follow you buy yet offer no input
 
Rookie
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Joined: Nov, 2013
Posts: 688
Posted: #194
I appreciate the analysis and yes that UTSA game was ridiculous.. keep posting  
 
Rookie
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Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 864
Posted: #195
Keep it bro. 

Your hard work is a valuable asset for many of us here. 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 23
Posted: #196
Agreed, appreciate all the work you put into this.
 
Legend
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Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 55638
Posted: #197
No biggy bro. Keep up the solid work my friend. 
 
Captain
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Joined: Nov, 2002
Posts: 7112
Posted: #198
Your honesty is commendable, as well as the self analysis.  Looking forward to ur next thread.
 
Captain
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Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #199
One week of outcomes is meaningless. You clearly know your stuff bud. Good luck this week.
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 134
Posted: #200
good insight. Keep it up.
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