Week 1 Leans New Thread

Hows it going Train?  Yeah I'm starting to think that might be the best looking total on the board as of now.  I don't even see that thing reaching 50 honestly.  As for the Notre Dame total I'm not sure yet, I don't like playing overs for one and for two I'm really not sure Nevada is going to put up 24.  I think they are going to struggle to score points which is opposed to a lot of peoples opinions which I really don't care.  I think they hit 17 honestly.  I have Notre Dame winning like 38-17 in that area maybe worse.  I just think this is a very bad matchup for Nevada but whatever.  As for Washington yeah its rough to bet on an 0-12 team, but I trust my instincts and research.  I think this game is going to be a whole lot closer than people think.  I have wrote in several other peoples threads about my thoughts on that game.  I do not trust a QB with a few starts on the road against an extremely hungry team.  Plus LSU's defense is overrated.  I think Locker does enough to keep it somewhat close.  Good luck this season buddy.

Now if they still had Ryan Perriloux it might be a different story.

Morning Update:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Oregon +5.5 - Thursday
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Navy/Ohio State Over 46.5
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5 *

Adding:

Minnesota -6.5

Paulus

This looks like a disaster about to take place. 

Updated List:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Minnesota -6.5
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Oregon +5.5 - Thursday
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5

Really liking how my card is starting to shape up.  Recently got rid of the Navy/OSU over as a lean. 

Down to 11 leans at the moment. 

Thats stupid bro

Updated List:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Minnesota -6.5
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Oregon +5.5 - Thursday
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5
Utah State +21

Bringing Utah State +21 back as a lean, might be dropping Oregon off my board again.  Too indecisive on both games so I might just drop them both.

I'm really thinking that Washington is gonna shock a lot of people.  A lot of people seem to forget about Jake Locker, whom I think can be the big difference in this game.  Lets not forget what he did as a Freshman 2 years ago.  Last year injuries really hurt the UW team.  They were possibly a .500 ball club that went 0-12.  I can see a backdoor but I have them playing them tough.  I can really see this game coming down to the wire.  I feel very strongly that it might.  I do want a better line on this game, I must admit.  Currently at +16 I'd probably play very small at this point.  Although my gut is telling me to jam it.  If Washington can avoid turning the ball over against a very overrated defense then they play them to the wire.   I can really see Jordan Jefferson turning the ball over a few times in this game.  Washington is hungry 14 straight losses.  Talent wise is no question in favor of LSU, but that travel is gonna be brutal.  One of the biggest problems for Washington last season was getting there defense off the field.  I don't think they are near as bad as the numbers indicated.  Locker will provide more first downs, which keeps the defense fresh.  I just think that Locker has a lot to prove and will do it.  UW averaged under 100 yards a game rushing last season, but with Locker back that number should go way up.  I just keep reiterating to myself that this team was 0-12 last season, which keeps me from really thinking that they can pull an upset.

Updated List:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Minnesota -6.5
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5
Utah State +21
Colorado -11

Oregon is gone for now,

Adding Colorado -11 as now an official lean.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Whodeysb09] Updated List:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Minnesota -6.5
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5
Utah State +21
Colorado -11

Oregon is gone for now,

Adding Colorado -11 as now an official lean.

Nice List..Have not had much time to look but think LSU will be the sleeper team out of the SEC. Not sure what to think about VT & Bama. I will probably stay away from that one. I think GA & Auburn will be a little better then people think. GL this season  Let's make some

csp - I think LSU will be a sleeper team as well.  Just because I think Washington plays them tough, doesn't mean I think LSU is bad or that they will be bad.  Good luck bro.  Lets make lots of money

Lots of good stuff here, as always.  Good luck.  Especially like KY.  I'm already on Oregon.  That game feels like a solid bowl game and I'll take the points with the better conference.  Would be all over Colorado, if not for the in-state rivalry aspect.  The dog has done well in this series over the years.  Still might play it.  Unlike many here, I like Hawkins.  Boise wouldn't exist without the guy.  Good luck this year, bud.

I think Colorado handles business against Colorado State.   The dog has done well in the series.  As for the Oregon/Boise State matchup I've been flipping back and forth so I might just stay away.  Good luck this season buddy.

So starting to see things my way I see

I can't wait until that game.  I'm dying for the season to start.  I know your thoughts on UW.  Hell I still might not play the game.  As of now I would though.  I'm not going to wager on anything probably until about a week before the season.  Kinda want to wait on injuries and such.

Updated List:

Western Michigan +12
Notre Dame -14
Minnesota -6.5
Arizona -12
Washington +16
Oklahoma State -5.5
Toledo +12
Kentucky -14
Illinois/Missouri Under 60
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5
Utah State +21
Colorado -11

This is what 85 percent looks like

Updated List: 2 more leans this morning.

Also going to add numbers I would still take the game at.

Western Michigan +12 - /+11 or more
Notre Dame -14 solid
Minnesota -6.5 - /-8
Arizona -13 /-14
Washington +16 solid
Oklahoma State -5.5 -/ -7
Toledo +12 /+10 or more
Kentucky -14 /-17
Illinois/Missouri Under 60 /58
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5 /57.5
Utah State +21 solid or more
Colorado -11 /-13
Penn State -27 /-30
Stanford/Washington State Under 56 /53

Adding:
Penn State -27
Stanford/Washington State Under 56

Scraped quite a few games today...been working for several hours now...here is my new list.   Games are now in order of how I feel about a game from strongest to you get the idea.
Updated List:

Also going to add numbers I would still take the game at.

Arizona -13 /-17
Penn State -27 /-32.5
Western Michigan +12  /+10.5 or more
Florida State -5.5  /-7
Kentucky -14 /-17
Notre Dame -14 solid
Oklahoma State -5.5 / -7
Eastern Michigan -5
Clemson -19.5 /-20.5
Oklahoma -21.5/-23
Washington +16 solid
Missouri +6.5 or better
Rutgers -5.5 or less is another lean.  I'm really starting to like Rutgers more and more.  I think they are the best team in the Big East.

Totals in order as well.
Stanford/Washington State Under 56 /53
Illinois/Missouri Under 60 /58
Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5 /57.5
Notre Dame/Nevada over 61.5/63


One more game...that I might be playing..

After a little bit of research I'm starting to like

Missouri +6.5 would like to catch a td or more, but I'm really starting to grow fondly of this one.

Nice, good to see your doing the homework,  Let's get'm this year.

Good to see you around Jimbo

Thanks for insight, I don't really have that pick graded that highly, just realized that its up so high must have not finished it.  Oh well I meant for that game to be around the bottom of the pack.   Yeah I see what your saying EMU stops the run they can cover seems pretty simple.  I'm still checking out a few things with this game anyways.  I really only feel good about 6 games thus far.  My final plays probably won't be until Wednesday maybe Thursday the week of.  A lot more time for me to get ready for the season.
Bigger texted games are what I would play right now.
Moved WMU down just a tad as well.

Arizona -13 /-17  
Penn State -27 /-32.5 
Notre Dame -14 / -15.5 
Kentucky -14 /-17 
Western Michigan +12  /+10.5 or more 
Florida State -5.5  /-7
Oklahoma State -5.5 / -6.5 

Clemson -19.5 /-20.5
Oklahoma -21.5/-23
Washington +16 solid
Eastern Michigan -5
Missouri +6.5 or better
Rutgers -5.5 or less is another lean.  I'm really starting to like Rutgers more and more.  I think they are the best team in the Big East.

Totals in order as well.
Stanford/Washington State Under 56 /53
Illinois/Missouri Under 60 /58

Buffalo/UTEP under 60.5 /57.5
Notre Dame/Nevada over 61.5/63

Yeah I dumped Toledo, couple factors weighed into it.  I just don't like the matchup personally.  UW could be the most improved team in the country this season.  They have some talent and a quarterback who can do a lot of things.  I still think with LSU having to come into there with a very young inexperienced QB they might struggle.  14 STRAIGHT LOSSES for UW  Gotta be itchin for a win, don't think they will win, but honestly think they have a shot.  As long as Locker doesn't turn the ball over and can consistently move the ball giving defense time to rest this game should be close.  I don't think LSU will be able to score all the points everyone thinks they will either.  I saw a 69-7 predicted score and laughed for about 10 minutes.

Another thing Nos is I think Purdue is better off with this new QB that they have.  Also in home openers in West Lafayette Purdue is 11-1.  Their offensive line should be fairly good this season.  Concern is that they only have a few returning starters, but is that necessarily a bad thing...they were pretty bad last season.  Although they did play Iowa/Penn State fairly tough.