Posted:
#26
vanzack can you discuss #3-#11 pls thx
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by PistolPete21:
Couldn't agree more with the UNC play, especially in light of the following trend:
Last 23 years FAVS off 2 or more S/U losses in a row are 7-21 ATS.
Considering Pitt's prospects two weeks ago, this game is a far-cry from what they were expecting. UNC has the situational advantage, and on top of that, they match up very well with Pitt's run-first style of offense.
I would like to ask, though: How the hell are you so confident in Miami? Would love to pick your brain on that one. And I'm not buying the Big 10 sucks argument here, either, because the ACC is equally shitty. Personally, I love the Badgers in this spot, playing in the same bowl that they shit all over themselves in last year. Harris particularly would scare me if I was a U backer.
Van Ithink Pistol has a point. The Badgerslost to OSU, Iowa and Northwestern. They should have won all those game even though they didn't. If the Badgers were undefeated they would be a 7 pt. favorite against this team. I am not convinced the LITE ass canes can contain the Badgers run. The Badger's "D" is improving and can harass Harris into a couple of picks.
Couldn't agree more with the UNC play, especially in light of the following trend:
Last 23 years FAVS off 2 or more S/U losses in a row are 7-21 ATS.
Considering Pitt's prospects two weeks ago, this game is a far-cry from what they were expecting. UNC has the situational advantage, and on top of that, they match up very well with Pitt's run-first style of offense.
I would like to ask, though: How the hell are you so confident in Miami? Would love to pick your brain on that one. And I'm not buying the Big 10 sucks argument here, either, because the ACC is equally shitty. Personally, I love the Badgers in this spot, playing in the same bowl that they shit all over themselves in last year. Harris particularly would scare me if I was a U backer.
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Posted:
#32
was wondering why the take on byu over oregon st. i know byu loves comin here to play their bowl every year and they bring all their fans with them, but i would think the beavers would be running on them all day. i love the miami pick, probably my favorite so far, and minnesota -2.5 is looking real good as well.
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by jp1lsu:
I cant get over how you got Fresno at -2.5 in the sense that I got them at -10. I like UNC, Mardhal, UGA, and a few others.
I like RU though, and Oregon St.
Obviously - it was a typo - my original post in this thread has the line at -10.5....
The -2.5 was a typo.
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Posted:
#36
Holy shit - had a 1000 word writeup on Miami but hit the back button and lost it....
Basically - here are the highlights of why Im betting big on Miami:
Team speed difference
Wisky one dimensional - what are they going to do if they cant run (which I expect)
Out of conference schedule major difference
Strength of schedule
Big 10 history in bowl games against fast pro style teams
My line was Miami -10
FSU / Wisky game from last year
Stats advantages like YPP to miami
Miami playing close to home
I had written all of these up - but dont have the patience to do it again. I cant see a reason to bet Wisky here - and think this one at least on paper is a blowout.
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Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by Da Punishner:
Van Ithink Pistol has a point. The Badgerslost to OSU, Iowa and Northwestern. They should have won all those game even though they didn't. If the Badgers were undefeated they would be a 7 pt. favorite against this team. I am not convinced the LITE ass canes can contain the Badgers run. The Badger's "D" is improving and can harass Harris into a couple of picks.
Van Ithink Pistol has a point. The Badgerslost to OSU, Iowa and Northwestern. They should have won all those game even though they didn't. If the Badgers were undefeated they would be a 7 pt. favorite against this team. I am not convinced the LITE ass canes can contain the Badgers run. The Badger's "D" is improving and can harass Harris into a couple of picks.
Miami held G Tech rushing attack to 95 yards.
How does Wisky's rushing attack compare to Gtechs - except that it is bigger and slower? Miami's defense historically is built to thrash these big slow power rushing attacks....
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Posted:
#38
BYU - One of the biggest reasons I am on them is because Oregon State just played to go to the Rose Bowl and lost, and is now in the Las Vegas Bowl. You cant underscore what this means in terms of motivation - teams that lose their last game of the regular season before going to a shit bowl underperform consistently. For BYU - this isnt a shit bowl - this is their home away from home - and those mormons LOVE to go to vegas and pack the stadium.
Statistically this is close to a wash.....
I have a slight edge in the line to BYU which puts me on them for a small wager....
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Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by Da Punishner:
Van Ithink Pistol has a point. The Badgerslost to OSU, Iowa and Northwestern. They should have won all those game even though they didn't. If the Badgers were undefeated they would be a 7 pt. favorite against this team. I am not convinced the LITE ass canes can contain the Badgers run. The Badger's "D" is improving and can harass Harris into a couple of picks.
Van Ithink Pistol has a point. The Badgerslost to OSU, Iowa and Northwestern. They should have won all those game even though they didn't. If the Badgers were undefeated they would be a 7 pt. favorite against this team. I am not convinced the LITE ass canes can contain the Badgers run. The Badger's "D" is improving and can harass Harris into a couple of picks.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.
MIAMI FLORIDA(11) 74.82 (18) VS WISCONSIN(37) 68.62 (69)
MIAMI RANKED 11th
WISCONSIN RANKED 37th
MIAMI Strength of Schedule 18
WISCONSIN Strength of Schedule 69
PLAY ON MIAMI
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Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by mr_armchair_qb:
Dec 19
RUTGERS (52) 64.22 (100) VS USF (62) 66.65 (85)
PLAY ON USF
Dec 22
OREGON ST.(15) 74.63 (20) VS BYU(29) 68.09 (76)
PLAY ON OREGON ST.
UTAH(36) 68.21 (73) VS CAL(33) 74.96 (17)
PLAY ON CAL
Dec 19
RUTGERS (52) 64.22 (100) VS USF (62) 66.65 (85)
PLAY ON USF
Dec 22
OREGON ST.(15) 74.63 (20) VS BYU(29) 68.09 (76)
PLAY ON OREGON ST.
UTAH(36) 68.21 (73) VS CAL(33) 74.96 (17)
PLAY ON CAL
Rutgers plays UCF.
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Posted:
#47
Now that UCLA is lined up to play Temple - Im adding that to the list...
TEMPLE +4 (2 units) - this is a hold your balls and close your eyes bet. UCLA has the athletes to run circles around Temple - but you cant find 2 teams that seemingly have opposite motivations than these 2.
UCLA had to wait to see if ARMY would beat them out for this bowl game - and Im sure that some of them were actually hoping for that. They have to fly to DC, to play in a shit bowl - against TEMPLE! Cant think of a team that will be less motivated in any bowl.
Then you have Temple, which for them this is the super bowl. They get to play a big name conference, a college football historical powerhouse, and play for a coach that fires them up. Temple will be ready to play, and play hard all game.
Now for the bad news - UCLA is much better than Temple - so this is one to bet and not watch - but I will be on them....
My updated list:
1. Fresno -10.5 (.5 units)
2. UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3. BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4. Utah +3 (2 units)
5. SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6. Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7. UNC +3 (4 units)
8. BC +9 (1 unit)
9. Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10. Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11. Miami -3 (5 units)
12. Temple +4 (2 units)
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Posted:
#48
I like Fresno State to cover. As to them not caring about being there? Seniors on the squad have been saying that after losing last year to Colorado St. and seeing how upset those seniors for Fresno were going out losing, they want to assure a victory so they don't feel the same. Fresno is way motivated and will roll.
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