You and craftsy are too kind. I'll be around as much as I can...though I'm a bit late in getting into it thus far...
here's where I am thus far...
Miami, OH +200
The redhawks have 14 returning starters including 8 on Offense. Last year at home, they outgained Ball St 359 to 226 yards, and they still managed to lose. Interestingly, the last 8 games have the Visitor winning 7 of them...for those in the bizarre and possibly useless stats department. Ball St is 2-9 in season openers, and last year they were 5-7 overall. Ball St is 6-2 in their last 8 MAC road games, but last year they also managed to lose to North Dakota St. Nate Davis may do well at QB for Ball St this year, but after the rest of the league saw what the Chippewas did to him, he had a rough time last year.
What does any of this mean? Not a whole fucklot at all. We shall see. In any event, This is the sort of game I look for. I may well play this one...not sure yet, but it's certainly on my radar screen.
Utah St at home +230 to UNLV might be worth messing with as well...
To round out Thursday...
Buffalo, Miss St, Kent St, and UL Monroe give me no interest whatsoever...unless Tulsa is much worse than I think, I may actually be on the chalk in that one.
Utah might be worth some consideration at over 300, but I doubt that'll show up...
for friday, Syracuse at 125 is devoid of bothersome value, and there's no way I'm going to fade Navy at Temple.
Saturday...I like GT to win. I do not like GT +125.
In the Hell Fucking No department, I'm not fading: West Virginia, VPI, Miami(FL), Nebraska, UCLA, TCU, Pitt, Oregon, Auburn, Minny, Wisky, USC, Penn St, Texas, Okiehomo, South Carolina, or Arkansas.
That's 17 that are right out from the beginning.
So I have to ponder betting on:
Alabama-Birmingham @ Michigan St - Spartans hungover from last year?
Duke at home to Connecticut - might the Blue Devils get a win.....?
Wyomingat home to Virginia - I'm still mad about losing this one (+320!)last yr in OT to a damned miss XP.
Northern Illinois at home to Iowa - ...maybe not.
Memphis at home to Ole Miss - but the value blows ass
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - and without that useless fuck Reggie Ball
Illinois at home to Missouri - uh, very likely not
Wake Forest @ Boston College - this should be a great game and that often means I shouldn't be involved on the ML
Arizona @ BYU - not sure I want to be fading the mormons either...perhaps this should be on the above list
Army @ Akron - at this point, perhaps Army should be favored. Under may be the best play here.
Central FL @ NC State - I think the wolfpack should be MUCH better this year...doubt there'll be enough value in this one.
Okiehomo St @ Georgia - I actually may be on UGA chalk in this one...a TD strikes me as kinda light. Admittedly, I have not looked at this one too hard yet
Central Michigan @ Kansas - chippewas may be undervalued here. 275 seems awfully tastey...new coaching staff, tho
Colorado St @ Colorado - no value here, really...
Toledo at home to Purdue - will the new coach be as crooked as the old?
Tennessee @ California - vengeance is mine sayith the Vols. I assure you, my local boys remember last year...
UTEP at home to New Mexico - why not? because there's no fucking value...
San Jose St @ Arizona St - SJSU has a bizarre ability to shock and amaze from time to time...perhaps this is one of those. at +425, it might be worth the shot.
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic - I think MTSU should be favored.
I think I have no interest in fading Testicle Tech or FSU on Monday. Amato is back where he belongs co-ordinating a D for FSU. I expect big things out of the Seminoles this year. A certain loss to NCSU, for instance, won't be happening.
And SMU just doesn't give me a hard-on. I'd expect TT to win that one by DD.
I have played nothing as of yet.. though I will likely play Miami, OH.
here's where I am thus far...
Miami, OH +200
The redhawks have 14 returning starters including 8 on Offense. Last year at home, they outgained Ball St 359 to 226 yards, and they still managed to lose. Interestingly, the last 8 games have the Visitor winning 7 of them...for those in the bizarre and possibly useless stats department. Ball St is 2-9 in season openers, and last year they were 5-7 overall. Ball St is 6-2 in their last 8 MAC road games, but last year they also managed to lose to North Dakota St. Nate Davis may do well at QB for Ball St this year, but after the rest of the league saw what the Chippewas did to him, he had a rough time last year.
What does any of this mean? Not a whole fucklot at all. We shall see. In any event, This is the sort of game I look for. I may well play this one...not sure yet, but it's certainly on my radar screen.
Utah St at home +230 to UNLV might be worth messing with as well...
To round out Thursday...
Buffalo, Miss St, Kent St, and UL Monroe give me no interest whatsoever...unless Tulsa is much worse than I think, I may actually be on the chalk in that one.
Utah might be worth some consideration at over 300, but I doubt that'll show up...
for friday, Syracuse at 125 is devoid of bothersome value, and there's no way I'm going to fade Navy at Temple.
Saturday...I like GT to win. I do not like GT +125.
In the Hell Fucking No department, I'm not fading: West Virginia, VPI, Miami(FL), Nebraska, UCLA, TCU, Pitt, Oregon, Auburn, Minny, Wisky, USC, Penn St, Texas, Okiehomo, South Carolina, or Arkansas.
That's 17 that are right out from the beginning.
So I have to ponder betting on:
Alabama-Birmingham @ Michigan St - Spartans hungover from last year?
Duke at home to Connecticut - might the Blue Devils get a win.....?
Wyomingat home to Virginia - I'm still mad about losing this one (+320!)last yr in OT to a damned miss XP.
Northern Illinois at home to Iowa - ...maybe not.
Memphis at home to Ole Miss - but the value blows ass
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - and without that useless fuck Reggie Ball
Illinois at home to Missouri - uh, very likely not
Wake Forest @ Boston College - this should be a great game and that often means I shouldn't be involved on the ML
Arizona @ BYU - not sure I want to be fading the mormons either...perhaps this should be on the above list
Army @ Akron - at this point, perhaps Army should be favored. Under may be the best play here.
Central FL @ NC State - I think the wolfpack should be MUCH better this year...doubt there'll be enough value in this one.
Okiehomo St @ Georgia - I actually may be on UGA chalk in this one...a TD strikes me as kinda light. Admittedly, I have not looked at this one too hard yet
Central Michigan @ Kansas - chippewas may be undervalued here. 275 seems awfully tastey...new coaching staff, tho
Colorado St @ Colorado - no value here, really...
Toledo at home to Purdue - will the new coach be as crooked as the old?
Tennessee @ California - vengeance is mine sayith the Vols. I assure you, my local boys remember last year...
UTEP at home to New Mexico - why not? because there's no fucking value...
San Jose St @ Arizona St - SJSU has a bizarre ability to shock and amaze from time to time...perhaps this is one of those. at +425, it might be worth the shot.
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic - I think MTSU should be favored.
I think I have no interest in fading Testicle Tech or FSU on Monday. Amato is back where he belongs co-ordinating a D for FSU. I expect big things out of the Seminoles this year. A certain loss to NCSU, for instance, won't be happening.
And SMU just doesn't give me a hard-on. I'd expect TT to win that one by DD.
I have played nothing as of yet.. though I will likely play Miami, OH.
Hooray!!!!
Great to see that Redbearde is back. Just wondering RB, are you looking at this year positively or negatively for NC St? I can't help but think the addition of OB has to be a good thing, but in the short term, I've heard that there might be an element held over from the Amato days that doesn't quite buy in to what O'Brien is selling. I can't help but think that Baker and Brown combined with O'Brien's "pound it" philosophy might allow for some nice situations ATS this year.
Really appreciate your thoughts here, great to have you aboard again!
I'm just checking in to say hello and let everyone know I'll be around again this year, at least in some capacity. Nice to hear from some of the old vets again.
I'm way behind in my own preparation, so I have no worthwhile advice to offer, but what the heck, I'm here and reading at least. Nice to see that even with my very limited knowledge, my inclinations seem to accord with some of those I know to be highly intelligent and successful CFB cappers. Case in point, Garfather's abbreviated initial card, all of which make perfectly good sense to me. I'll also be sure to take a hard look at Miami, O. and Arizona, on the advice of several in this thread.
My own thoughts? Few and lacking conviction still but Illinois jumps out at me. As with any Ron Zook coached team they are woefully inconsistent. But as anyone who saw their PSU/Wisconsin/Ohio St. sequence of games near the end of last season could tell you, they certainly appear to have the talent to knock off the likes of Mizzou.
CMU I'm not as enthralled with as a few on this board. Yes, LeFevour is an exciting player, but with the loss of such talented players as Staley, Bazuin, Cetoute, Linson, and the underrated Mike Ogle, they'll have to prove it all over to me.
At this point though, I've still got more questions than answers.
1. Western Michigan? Help. I know Garfather was high on them all last season but is what appears to be just another MAC team ready to compete in Morgantown? Is the fact that they managed to hang in against a couple of highly overrated ACC teams (FSU and UVa twice) the last couple of seasons holding this number down? At first glance, this looks like maybe the best of the heavy chalk, which we all know pays very well in September.
2. Houston? Similar situation. Maybe they win the CUSA but can they hang with the Ducks on the road? New QB running a high risk type offense in an atmosphere like Autzen? Toughest road test for UH since getting drubbed by 50 @ Oklahoma and @ Michigan a few years ago.
3. Wazzou? Sure, Badgers should be a solid favorite, but why don't the Cougs have a chance here? Haven't looked that close, but the line seems off.....
Mat,
Great to see you've checked in. Hopefully you don't mind my two cents re: WMU. I think it depends on whether or nor Tim Hiller is under center, and whether he can regain the form he had 2 years ago before his knee exploded in their finale. At that point he had torched opponents to a 22/3 TD/INT ratio over about a 7-8 game stretch.. If he can find his form this year, he's got some deent receivers, and in my opinion, a solid coach in Cubit. On the stop unit, they have just about everyone back other than the pass rushing end (had a Muslim name that escapes me at the moment) from a solid squad from last year. The had some ball hawks in the secondary and all of them return.
Granted, extolling the virtues of a MAC defense against the likes of White and Slaton is pointless, since these guys run roughshod over whatever D they tee it up with, but it should be a very good defense that won't be a pushover. We all know that WV struggled big time with good passing attacks last year, and their big CB Juco recruit just got arrested which would hurt their depth, one would assume. If Hiller has his form, WMU should be able to move the ball. If they can put up some points, 24 will be tough to cover. Just looking at the other side here.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
