Underdog Money Lines Week 1 (8/30-9/3)

Thanks for sharing your insights, Gar.

The books are really squeezing us on some of these moneylines.  If the books continue to suck the value out of dog moneylines, do you think it'd be a profitable endeavor to start analyzing favorite moneylines?

I think Akron ought to win that game, but I don't think it will be pretty and an under play might be prudent.  I can't see Akron putting up a lot of points on much of anyone this year, this game included.  Their offense almost certainly has to predicated on Kennedy, the problem is not only is the OL rebuilt, but they don't have the same caliber receiving corps as the last few years and even if they did the QB is new, so there isn't going to be much to keep the defense honest.  If I play Army it would be with the notion in mind that the Zips won't be able to pull away.  Akron should have a fine defense of their own, however, and as tough as points will be to come by for Akron they will be equally difficult for the Black Knights to accumulate.

I'm not really sure what to say about the Wolfpack game.  I will have to look closer at what TOB is doing and get back to you next week.

Doubtful that I will be playing this game, but if I were it would have to be Texas Tech, there are just speed and talent differences there that aren't evident on paper and I don't read much if anything into the Raiders bringing back less experience.  SMU will have to make do without the projected FS and MLB.  Willis will get a couple TDs between running and passing, but it won't matter.

And I think this where you and I just differ somewhat in our approaches.  I certainly look at trends and historical patterns as they exist for a reason, but I never use that as my starting point and I never allow it to dominate my view of the match-up.  Would those stats still be valid if it were this year's KSU team and this year's Auburn teams that were playing all those seasons and compiling those totals?  Probably not.  This year's Tiger team is not on par with the last three versions (12-0, 9-2, 10-2) in really any area on the football field.  And KSU is better offensively than their recent teams.  About the same on defense probably.  The main reason I am not very interested in the older numbers is because Ron Prince is in his second year and I just think the slate has to be somewhat cleaned.  In his first year, he did get them a winning season after two losing years to close out Snyder's career.

I do.  You have to be willing to adapt in this business.  Two years ago I was mostly a dog guy.  Last year I probably played as many or more favorites as dogs.  I have wanted for some time now, another member to post a weekly ML Favorites thread.  I would really like to see how it compares from a strategy perspective, but also I would even more like to see the results and how they compare.  Maybe you or somebody else who sees this can be that guy.  Maybe that is actually more profitable.  We won't know until its tried.

It would be a friendly and fun competition.  Whether or not the author of that thread actually plays them would be a moot point, as long as they take the craft seriously.

After seeing the tight ML's on the larger dogs this early season I have began pondering the same question about favorites on the ML.

I am almost tempted to do a season long thread devoted to this but it would be time consuming and completely counter intuitive to my usual betting pattern as a predominantly dog player and dog ML player. However, it could be a valuable lesson one way or the other about profitable strategy in betting CFB so it does have merit, but for this season it would strictly be for information and I would not lay a single dollar on the games I would take in the thread (faves ML of course).

It would be fun to see the results though.....

And that is exactly how this works - the part where "anything could happen in one game".  With the exceptions of some really extreme examples (Sun Belt and MAC against upper echelon BCS) any team can beat team on any given night and in this thread we look for value and situations to lead us to a conclusion on why a game will or will not be that "any one night."  I think this has a real shot of being that any one night. 

In your second paragraph you are guilty of picking and choosing by only mentioning certain games.  I have no problem picturing offenses like Rutgers and Mizzou putting that many points on Auburn considering that UGA's pathetic offense went for 37.  And as I look at their season last year, one thing is glaringly obvious, they got worse instead of better as the year went along.  I will let you know when Auburn loses to Baylor if you let me know when they stroke Texas for 45 and get the W.  Not happening.  Neither result is typical, there again, "any given night".  That is just the strange nature of college football.

You're a man that likes facts I see.  That is good we need more of that around here.  I'm sure you'll enjoy these as well:  Auburn loses the top receiver, top rusher, and 4 OL starters from a team that had trouble scoring 3 touchdowns against any team with warm bodies.  They lose one of the very best kickers in the nation.  Their front seven is already getting crushed in the depth department losing a starter and several backups while KSU has to date suffered basically no attrition.  Another good fact, the last two times they were favored at home by less than 31 (Tulane/ArkSt) they lost outright and failed to score more than 15 and gave up not less than 27.  There are facts on both sides as always.  Its up to each individual capper to analyze them in a way that makes a conclusion clear and then to place or not place a wager accordingly.  I haven't made up my mind, opinions are always subject to change, but unless something really strange happens (or the line value bottoms out) I will likely add this one.

Hey Gar, good luck this year, I always enjoy your take on ML dogs.
One play I would suggest you look at again is Wake Forest v. BC.  While I have not studied WF closely yet, and agree that we can't necessarily expect the same kind of year from them, I do live in Boston and can tell you it seems the BC will be very slow out of the gate.  They have a new coach and new offensive scheme.  That said, their D should be strong with 9 returning starters and the same def coord and scheme returning.

I expect the game to be decided by a FG or so either way.  Also the BC kicker was a walk-on last year, a good kid who is reliable but does not have a strong leg. 

While you don't want to make too much out of one bad practice, check out this article from yesterday:

https://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/football/articles/2007/08/16/offense_leaves_jagodzinski_positively_aghast/

Some folks aren't gonna like this, but the Cowboys are out.  Both Cowboy teams are likely to be out, but so far the ones from Laramie are still in, while the ones from Stillwater have been kicked off Underdog Survivor Island.  Its not that I think they don't have a chance in hell, its that I prefer another wager in that game, namely the over.  After some discussion with one of the dalai lamas of college football betting I am going to tail him on it.  OSU tends to give up a helluva lot of points and so in spite of the fact that they can score a bunch I think this is safer and more sound than trying to pick a side in a game that could be really excellent.  Bottom line on this is that when I look at Gundy's boys I can see this being a close game, but if its a blowout it will only be in one direction.

Utah State is also out.  But why, when its just been announced that Hinds is doubtful?  Because with that announcement game a correlating drop in value.  If it wasn't looking like a play before it sure as shit isn't now.  Not really thinking that Dixon is a huge drop-off, but we'll see, I guess.

Duke is out just like Utah State.  The value isn't there for a team that didn't win a game last season.

I will re-evaluate Kent if/when some of that Big 12 money starts to pile in, but at this point I think there is actually line value with the Cyclones.

I'm considering a wager in the GT/ND game, but I don't think it will be the Jackets ML.  That is sure to disappoint a few folks, but just for the record, that is the way I lean.  I can't see taking ND as a favorite at this point in the season.  I won't even try to argue with anyone that does take Gailey's team.

Illinois is out, at least for now.  If the line climbs on Mizzou the way it very well could then I will give the Illini another look.  Their offense is simply not at a point where I want them to try to win outright.  I could be wrong though, maybe their under-rated defense will really do a number on the Tigers O and thus give Juice a chance to run around and make some short throws.  I worry that Zook and Co. will fall behind early, and if that happens its game over as this is not a dynamic passing attack.  I'm not laying points with Missouri's defense though.

I didn't make it official above, so I will now.  SJSU and BG are out due to lack of value.  I would need closer to 7:1 or at least 6:1 to take dogs of that size and ask them to win straight up.

Not going to do Wake.  I started off leaning to BC and have almost come full circle to a lean on WF, and when that happens its usually a sign that I just don't have a clue.  Should be a good game.  Maybe the biggest look-ahead situation for any team in week one.

Won't be surprised in the least if Memphis wins but I want a lot more than what is being offered to take them.  If that Ole Miss offense finally clicks and matches the intensity of the defense, they should be able to do a number on the Tigers.

I just got done saying in another thread that I'm probably not ready to take Utah w/o seeing their defense first, but if Stroughter comes back and that line moves I could vacillate very quickly.  Remember, value is king.  A lot of times (as you can see by this post) I like to kick teams to the curb, not because anything is really wrong with them, but because they aren't paying enough.

I can almost tell you who my 3-5 will end up being just by looking at the remaining 12.  But let's save just a little suspense, it wouldn't be any fun to finalize things 12 days out now would it?

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (0):

Prospective Plays (12): MiamiOH, Utah, UL-Monroe, Syracuse, Wyoming, Arizona, Army, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Kansas State, and MTSU.

OSU voted off!  

Love that over though. 

Still liking Miami, and i'm glad to see the value appears to be going up and up on it.  +200 right now on thegreek, line has moved to -6... it gets much higher and i'll be forced to take a shot at it.. i'm already loving it at 200 though.

Can't wait to see the official list... loving all your analysis as well, i'm with you on a ton of things and that's encouraging for me.

No doubt that there offense will be live.  Or at least as live as they ever are, they aren't a real dynamic team.  But for your sake I hope the back 7 is live.  Even with three NFL players in their defensive backfield last year they gave up 402 to Matt Ryan and they were playing at home.  Now w/o those guys they have to go on the road and face a BC team that is even more likely to pass this year than last year.

GL this year craftsy.  MiaO looks like a real possibility...