Underdog Money Lines Week 1 (8/30-9/3)

Official Play: Kansas State +425

I am looking for dog money to come in this game before favorite money.  Just a hunch, so now is the time as far as I am concerned.  If it goes up to 5:1 please go ahead and kill me.  Took it at 5dimes.  Maybe Kansas State will prove to be superior to Auburn or maybe they will prove to be not nearly as good, but in any event I don't care, as long as they are better on September the 1st.  Freeman will do his thing, a couple TDs and a couple picks, looking for edges in ST and hopefully defense.  I like the general direction of this KSU team down the stretch last year.  I won't go so far as to call this than AU fade, but I am looking at the Tigers as having some vulnerabilities, particularly on the offensive line which isn't a good place to be vulnerable.  They tended to get worse instead of better after beating Florida and were outgained in the final two and were fortunate to even get victories.

Official Play: Arizona +200

A little disappointed with this number as 205 is still available, but unfortunately Fedex is being problematic with my deposit to Olympic so I am gonna just roll with 5D again on this one.  Same story as above, I think this line is more likely to fall than rise at this point.  This line was actually 6.5 at some locations and is now pretty much 5.5 or 5 everywhere, and its unlikely that the ML wouldn't have a corresponding drop as we inch closer to the day or reckoning.  As upset as I am to be missing out on a nickel, the flip side of the coin (perhaps the very same nickel) is that I rated this a PK so I consider it to be a good bet to be getting anything with a + sign.  Enough has been said by me and others on this one to the point where no more mention of the game is needed.  The Wildcats appear to be a very popular underdog choice and I can absolutely see why.  I don't know if this will be their year that people keep waiting for, I just hope this will be their day.

Any notions of taking the Warhawks have been erased at this point after the line drop.  Great job to any and all that got in when it was closer to 6/180.  The UL @ M is all offense all the time baby, and they just might outscore this crew from Tulsa.  But I have to fundamentally agree with Wahoo's assessment and conclude that there is a talent and speed edge to the Golden Hurricanes - on the stop unit, if nothing else.

I am going to go on record and potentially embarrass myself by saying that I think EMU could be competitive with Pitt, but that ain't gonna be a play.

I'm not interested in Cuse.  Maybe the under, but probably not that either.

No UCF for me.  Although Israel is an upgrade.

Went ahead and added the Georgia over.  54 is not a preferred number as compared to 52, but I will still take it.  55 is sort of the cutoff though as that would represent 7 TDs and 2 FGs, whereas 54 would be something of strange combo to land on.  30-24 maybe?

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (1): KSU +425, Arizona +200

Prospective Plays (6): MiamiOH, Utah, Wyoming, Army, Toledo, and MTSU.



Total card is presently KSU ML, Arizona ML, FSU -2, S. Carolina -28, Iowa -10.5, and OSU/UGA over 54.

Let's go ahead and retry that last part...

No Blue Raiders for me either, I am gonna let them play with their new pieces first before trying them.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (2): KSU +425, Arizona +200

Prospective Plays (6): MiamiOH, Utah, Wyoming, Army, and Toledo



Week 1 card as of right now:

1) KSU ML +425
2) Arizona ML +200
3) Florida State -2
4) Iowa -10.5
5) S. Carolina -28
6) OSU/UGA O 54

No UCF for me either.  On principle, I think perhaps 3:1 is worthwhile.  I do like to take a step back, though, and I do think NC State has more talent and the big discipline problem of last year just might have been beaten out of them...

Israel is an upgrade.  That's good...

AZ is 210 and KSU is 500 at bookmaker, the day after I make my plays.  Somebody just fucking shoot me now  please.

SC reopened all the way down at 28. LOL  I guess Mitch is only worth a point.

You know you found value when...

one of Iowa's gamebreakers goes down and the line moves up a point, and SC starting QB and FS go out and you only lose a point.

That is the name of the game to betting early folks, you need to put yourself in a position such that the line won't get noticeably worse if a guy or two goes are hurt, get suspended, or transfer. 

Exactly right, Texas loses 2 starting WRs in a week and the line goes from up 37 to 39 (turned out later 1 may play). USC loses 2-3 RBs and number goes up 1-2 points. The better the play the more you can afford injuries and vice versa.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but I disagree with you on this pick. 

There is no doubt Mickey Andrews will make Clemson's unproven WR core and QB (whether it's Harper or Korn) beat them.  And, I think they will.  As close as I am to Clemson program, I can say that our group of WRs are more talented than our WR combo of Derrick Hamilton, Kevin Youngblood, and Airese Curry from 2003.  The talent is there, and it was there last year, we just never utilized it.  I know it's hard to believe now, but by the end of the year people will realize just exactly how talented this bunch is.

I'm excited to see how our QB situation plays out.  I love the competition, I think it's great.  For the first time in the TB era, we have guys waking up in the morning, brushing their teeth and wondering if the other guy has already been up for an hour working towards getting better.  It's been too long since we've had that level of competition at QB.

Clemson is a home dog at night (we play noticeably better at night) and we have a tough defense.  Those are all great signs for a ML bet. 

I know a lot of people say don't bet on your team, and I agree with them, except in my case where I can separate my emotions from my gambling.  I have a huge advantage over the bookies, because I know Clemson inside and out, inconsistencies and all.  I look forward to hearing everyone else's take on the game.

BG looks better and better the more I look at them, but that just isn't enough money to get me excited.  Its a tall order for a MAC team to win on the road against a Big 11 team and I would want to be paid properly.

Sammie Stroughter showed up at practice the other day. LOL I don't think he'll play in the first week, but that appears very much up in the air.  This has been a weird ordeal.  And while some guys have a meaningless impact on a game and discussion of whether or not they will play is much ado about nothing, that isn't the case here.  SS is a legit impact player and is about the only threat OSU has that can take it the distance on any play.  He NEVER gets caught from behind and can usually beat guys with angles even on punt returns.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (2): KSU +425, Arizona +200

Prospective Plays (3): MiamiOH, Utah, and Toledo

No Wyoming and no Army.  I lean towards both unders though.

Still looking at: GT/ND under, Utah +7 or more, VT -24 or less, MSU -20 or less, Oregon -14 or less, and maybe Cal but I don't like it that Coker is gonna be available.  Still looking for 1-3 of those MLDs.  

Nooooo, this approach would be too easy.  Have you watched Al Groh coach games before?  He always takes the most difficult approach and does what he can to lose games.  The approach your suggesting would be way too practical and potentially successful for him to try against an athletically inferior team like Wyoming.

If you couldn't tell, I was gritting my teeth the entire time I was writing that.

JGalt, your dentist wouldn't appreciate hearing that and Al Groh wouldn't like you comments. LOL  I can't back Wyoming with brand new lines on both sides.  GL to your team.

phalphe, good luck to your team this season, I just hope they start off 0-1.  There has been a massive amount of discussion about that game already so I am going to stand pat for now, but if you use the search feature you will get all you can handle.

I am going to eliminate Michigan State from the games I was considering.  Something just feels, well...weird about that game.  No reason they shouldn't kick the shit out of the Blazers.  If it were still 16 or whatever I might feel differently, but I'm not sure.  Just way too many ?s for both teams.

GL to Spartan backers, you probably have the right side.

that line has lost alot of value, at -16 it would be a bargain in my opinion, I just missed it back when it was that, too bad, UAB is going to be brutal this season, I don't know how they will score on offense in this game

Why do I get this same weird feeling as well?  Why does it feel like Michigan State will win by 17 or something?

Gar - not sure you're still watching it.. but Miami is at +205 on bookmaker, highest I've seen it.  If it's still on your radar, seems now is the time to jump it.


Also - not sure if you got to it or not, but the one time I posted last week I asked about whether or not games will come back into play for you, if their value drastically changes.. I mentioned how central michigan had moved from +240 when you threw it out of your possible plays, and seeing that it was up to +275 one point last week (i see 265 now, but that's still somewhat significant if you were borderline on it).... Do you complete lose track of these when you drop them off your list, or are there some ones you mark as being playable IF the payout gets better and you keep an eye on them?

Just curious... thanks

Laker, I think if Utah gets added it will be with the 6-7 points.  ML has dropped from the 240 of previous days.

MiamiOH is still looking like a viable candidate as is Toledo.  Tough to find good dogs this week.

I've talked at great length about Wake.  I don't prefer the value of SJSU.  They are a feisty little team and could give ASU a run for its money, I'm not too sure about that one.  I think it was only 450 or 500 though and you deserve a lot more for that with a dog of that size on the road.

craftsy21, my lists are very seldom written in stone.  Plays come back and forth all the time, like Utah.  I really don't prefer the match-ups for CMU in this game and I think KU could do a number on them, but anything is possible, and I am no longer surprised by too much.

Mia is holding its value nicely...for now.  I am going to get greedy and see if I can squeeze out a little more blood from that turnip.

linde, don't know what to say.  I think MiamiFL and MSU should easily cover their lines this week, but neither one sits right with me.  And intuition (whether it turns out to be right or wrong) has to count for something.  If at the end of the day you can't answer to yourself, then what are we doing this for?

GL this week everyone.