utes are really looking good in camp so far. johnson has team clicking like he did before the injury. absolute live dog possibilty here.
Possible play, but probably ATS, not too many folks come into Corvalis and get wins for whatever reason. Small stadium, nothing about it says intimidating, but not a lot of folks get Ws there.
0
Quote Originally Posted by $OC$:
utes are really looking good in camp so far. johnson has team clicking like he did before the injury. absolute live dog possibilty here.
Possible play, but probably ATS, not too many folks come into Corvalis and get wins for whatever reason. Small stadium, nothing about it says intimidating, but not a lot of folks get Ws there.
Gar- careful with KSU. If you take the ML, you're basically betting that the Cats OL has experienced some sort of rebirth.
The OL:
Jordan Bedore is back at Center after missing plenty last season because of injury. He's a stud and was sorely missed last season.
Logan Robinson is a SR Guard. Consistency and experience here.
Gerard Spexarth - JR guard. Has never lived up to expectations. Perhaps he'll get it done this season. Perhaps not.
Eric Benoit - juco transfer who MIGHT take Spex's spot. Uknown.
At Tackle - 3 Sophs and a couple of juco transfers. Uknown. Juco transfer Alesana Alesana is a big somoan who is already penciled in as a starter.
So, the Guard and Tackle spots could be average IF they improve. Even if they're average, I don't think that's enough to win @ Auburn. How long will it take JFreeman to toss an INT or more because KSU's OL can't keep up with scheming on the other side of the ball? Same goes for our RB's who run with the best of them, but do not block as well as they could. Blitz city (which Prince used to his advantage vs Texas last season, but remember, this is week 1).
And not to be overlooked: One WR is significant experience, and that's the explosive Jordy Nelson. 6-2 white boy who runs 4.3. Should have a great season, but he's not what I'd consider a "go-to" guy. Where will the help come from? TE's are deep. TE's are good. But the rest of the WR's are a big question mark.
ATS? I'll consider it. I do like the Under:
KSU defense is shaping up to be really good. New DC, but he's not new to the program. New scheme in place as well (switch from 4-3 to 3-4, but will still use both)...the corners, lb's, and dl all have speed and there's talent all over the field. Names to remember: DE Rob Jackson, DT/NG Xavier Stewart, CB Antown Moore (most underrated player in the Big 12?), S Marcus Watts. There are more. All aforementioned will get long looks from NFL scouts.
Auburn just won't score that many points. Not a lot of starters back, and the injury bug has bitten them square on the ass. Someone who knows more than I about Auburn might be able to explain where there points will come from.
Special teams: no-brainer and big edge to KSU.
Defense and ST probably enough to keep this one within 2 TD's. But the upset? KSU has a shot no doubt. Given the OL woes and no history to go by...I'm not going with the ML on this one.
0
Gar- careful with KSU. If you take the ML, you're basically betting that the Cats OL has experienced some sort of rebirth.
The OL:
Jordan Bedore is back at Center after missing plenty last season because of injury. He's a stud and was sorely missed last season.
Logan Robinson is a SR Guard. Consistency and experience here.
Gerard Spexarth - JR guard. Has never lived up to expectations. Perhaps he'll get it done this season. Perhaps not.
Eric Benoit - juco transfer who MIGHT take Spex's spot. Uknown.
At Tackle - 3 Sophs and a couple of juco transfers. Uknown. Juco transfer Alesana Alesana is a big somoan who is already penciled in as a starter.
So, the Guard and Tackle spots could be average IF they improve. Even if they're average, I don't think that's enough to win @ Auburn. How long will it take JFreeman to toss an INT or more because KSU's OL can't keep up with scheming on the other side of the ball? Same goes for our RB's who run with the best of them, but do not block as well as they could. Blitz city (which Prince used to his advantage vs Texas last season, but remember, this is week 1).
And not to be overlooked: One WR is significant experience, and that's the explosive Jordy Nelson. 6-2 white boy who runs 4.3. Should have a great season, but he's not what I'd consider a "go-to" guy. Where will the help come from? TE's are deep. TE's are good. But the rest of the WR's are a big question mark.
ATS? I'll consider it. I do like the Under:
KSU defense is shaping up to be really good. New DC, but he's not new to the program. New scheme in place as well (switch from 4-3 to 3-4, but will still use both)...the corners, lb's, and dl all have speed and there's talent all over the field. Names to remember: DE Rob Jackson, DT/NG Xavier Stewart, CB Antown Moore (most underrated player in the Big 12?), S Marcus Watts. There are more. All aforementioned will get long looks from NFL scouts.
Auburn just won't score that many points. Not a lot of starters back, and the injury bug has bitten them square on the ass. Someone who knows more than I about Auburn might be able to explain where there points will come from.
Special teams: no-brainer and big edge to KSU.
Defense and ST probably enough to keep this one within 2 TD's. But the upset? KSU has a shot no doubt. Given the OL woes and no history to go by...I'm not going with the ML on this one.
ksuwins, anytime you place a bet, you're taking a lot of factors into consideration. The KSU OL is just one facet of this game. Remember, the guys opposing them were very mediocre last year. I recall several games where Auburn got virtually no pass rush at all. And they are already suffering all kinds of attrition at the F7 positions that are hurting their depth already. I am not sure that Auburn's offense is any better than Kansas State's to be honest. And if they (the Tigers) have an edge on defense over you guys its a small one at best. I think this is a "reputation line" and as long as not much changes in the next couple weeks I intend to take advantage of it. Unless you think Auburn's homefield advantage and maybe coaching edge (debatable) is worth ten points then you have to look at the dog here. Where the rubber meets the road and the players meet each other on the field there isn't a lot to separate these teams.
clowncar, I really appreciate you doing that. That is actually something I do here at home, but don't always put in my thread each week. I was hoping you would go a little bit further and do the big dogs because there is a pretty interesting one...
SJSU +16, +425
KSU +13, +425
Q: So is KSU's money line unbelievably generous or his SJSU really expensive on the ML?
A: 425 is about right for a 13 or 13.5 spread, maybe even 12.5 in some cases, so its safe to say that if you want to back Dick Tomey's squad you are better off taking those 16 points because a dog of that size should be in the 6:1 or 7:1 range. 425 is an unimaginably bad deal. When you talk in terms of value, its not even close, KSU is a better choice than SJSU.
Bowling Green is in the exact same boat as SJSU. Terrible value. A 16.5 dog on the spread really ought to be not worse than +650. And as far as I am concerned, SJSU has a much better chance of beating the Sun Devils than the Falcons do of taking down the Gophers.
0
ksuwins, anytime you place a bet, you're taking a lot of factors into consideration. The KSU OL is just one facet of this game. Remember, the guys opposing them were very mediocre last year. I recall several games where Auburn got virtually no pass rush at all. And they are already suffering all kinds of attrition at the F7 positions that are hurting their depth already. I am not sure that Auburn's offense is any better than Kansas State's to be honest. And if they (the Tigers) have an edge on defense over you guys its a small one at best. I think this is a "reputation line" and as long as not much changes in the next couple weeks I intend to take advantage of it. Unless you think Auburn's homefield advantage and maybe coaching edge (debatable) is worth ten points then you have to look at the dog here. Where the rubber meets the road and the players meet each other on the field there isn't a lot to separate these teams.
clowncar, I really appreciate you doing that. That is actually something I do here at home, but don't always put in my thread each week. I was hoping you would go a little bit further and do the big dogs because there is a pretty interesting one...
SJSU +16, +425
KSU +13, +425
Q: So is KSU's money line unbelievably generous or his SJSU really expensive on the ML?
A: 425 is about right for a 13 or 13.5 spread, maybe even 12.5 in some cases, so its safe to say that if you want to back Dick Tomey's squad you are better off taking those 16 points because a dog of that size should be in the 6:1 or 7:1 range. 425 is an unimaginably bad deal. When you talk in terms of value, its not even close, KSU is a better choice than SJSU.
Bowling Green is in the exact same boat as SJSU. Terrible value. A 16.5 dog on the spread really ought to be not worse than +650. And as far as I am concerned, SJSU has a much better chance of beating the Sun Devils than the Falcons do of taking down the Gophers.
Because I am taking Florida State -2. That is the long and short of it. FSU should be much more balanced on offense and slightly better on the stop unit as well.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dakley:
clemson ML...why not?
Because I am taking Florida State -2. That is the long and short of it. FSU should be much more balanced on offense and slightly better on the stop unit as well.
Let's get a move on it here, time to get rolling. I will usually use Bookmaker's openers, but they haven't well...opened yet so I am gonna go w/ Olympic for this session.
Likely or possible plays.
MiamiOH +190 More research needed. I saw the couple minutes of Shane Montgomery at MAC media day in late July. He damn near had me tricked into believing that he is a good coach that knows what the fuck he is doing. Its now a matter of turning their considerable talent (second only to maybe Toledo in the MAC in terms of recruiting) into a bowl game. And it has to start with games like this. BSU is thinking bowls too though. Kent +170 I am going to leave them here for another week or so, but its almost a mere formality as there is no shot of me taking them at such a small return. ISU may be a poor team, but they are still a Big 12 team. As a friendly service reminder to those of you who like Kent in this game, I would remind you that last year they were also bringing back a lot of talent, getting a lot more than 3.5 pts, and also at home and still weren't even close to covering. Utah State +250 Nice value, all things considered. But this could only be a fade of UNLV who hasn't won a road game in two years with their current coach. No way to like what you see from the Aggies w/o being able to see anything yet, maybe later in November there will be a chance to play them. Utah +240 This is a match-up of attrition city as OSU just keeps having problems and Utah recently lost one of their better lineman. Tough to win outright in Corvalis for some reason. UL-Monroe +175 That's a really stingy price and unfortunately, will probably take me off them. Great coaching match-up, both Weatherbie and Graham have a clue about football. Syracuse +125 I am leaving them on here pending a report on UW. I am waiting to hear from Mugg and I need to read more about Locker and Co as they are unknowns, at least to me. If the Huskies intend to win a couple games this year, they might want to consider starting with this one at that is a BRUTAL schedule. Duke +175 Exact same scenario as ULM. I was willing to listen, but I don't like what I am hearing in terms of numbers. (*I am indifferent on Lorenzen being named starter, he might be a better passer, but their set-up as a running team.) Wyoming +155 Again, another very expensive home underdog. To take this team, against that UVA team, and ask them to win it straight up I will need to see something more in line with 2:1. Georgia Tech +125 As if enough hasn't been said about this one already...the Jackets are more experienced, but ND has a coaching edge and home field. In a game that shapes up the way this one does (low-scoring and ugly), I would almost rather have the points even if its only a couple. Illinois +210 Not sure if they can score with Mizzou at this juncture of the season, but they figure to be a tough out for a lot of folks this season and I will certainly have my eye on Juice to see how he progresses. Defensive edge and even coaching edge for the Native Americans in this one. Wake Forest +230 The more time passes, the less interested I have become in taking Boston College - for a variety of reasons, but mostly the look-ahead factor. I don't envision a Wake play here either, but they might be live. I am just concerned about their defense. I think that was a special group that won't easily be replaced. Arizona +205 I discussed this one in some measure a bit earlier in the thread. Suffice to say its ML or nothing from the Wildcats standpoint. Army +180 Tons and tons of more research needed. I do like the new Army head coach, but I don't really like his team a whole lot yet. Central Florida +300 Wow, just not sure what to expect from the Pack. Sure could use a redbearde update right about now. I know they have good backs and TOB likes to run so, that is what I would expect. On the other hand, I know what UCF has to offer, lots of promises, seldom of which are ever made good. Their defense was a huge joke, but its still one of the better C-USA units. And now that Moffett is gone their offense figures to flourish, or at least limit costly turnovers...one or the other.
0
Let's get a move on it here, time to get rolling. I will usually use Bookmaker's openers, but they haven't well...opened yet so I am gonna go w/ Olympic for this session.
Likely or possible plays.
MiamiOH +190 More research needed. I saw the couple minutes of Shane Montgomery at MAC media day in late July. He damn near had me tricked into believing that he is a good coach that knows what the fuck he is doing. Its now a matter of turning their considerable talent (second only to maybe Toledo in the MAC in terms of recruiting) into a bowl game. And it has to start with games like this. BSU is thinking bowls too though. Kent +170 I am going to leave them here for another week or so, but its almost a mere formality as there is no shot of me taking them at such a small return. ISU may be a poor team, but they are still a Big 12 team. As a friendly service reminder to those of you who like Kent in this game, I would remind you that last year they were also bringing back a lot of talent, getting a lot more than 3.5 pts, and also at home and still weren't even close to covering. Utah State +250 Nice value, all things considered. But this could only be a fade of UNLV who hasn't won a road game in two years with their current coach. No way to like what you see from the Aggies w/o being able to see anything yet, maybe later in November there will be a chance to play them. Utah +240 This is a match-up of attrition city as OSU just keeps having problems and Utah recently lost one of their better lineman. Tough to win outright in Corvalis for some reason. UL-Monroe +175 That's a really stingy price and unfortunately, will probably take me off them. Great coaching match-up, both Weatherbie and Graham have a clue about football. Syracuse +125 I am leaving them on here pending a report on UW. I am waiting to hear from Mugg and I need to read more about Locker and Co as they are unknowns, at least to me. If the Huskies intend to win a couple games this year, they might want to consider starting with this one at that is a BRUTAL schedule. Duke +175 Exact same scenario as ULM. I was willing to listen, but I don't like what I am hearing in terms of numbers. (*I am indifferent on Lorenzen being named starter, he might be a better passer, but their set-up as a running team.) Wyoming +155 Again, another very expensive home underdog. To take this team, against that UVA team, and ask them to win it straight up I will need to see something more in line with 2:1. Georgia Tech +125 As if enough hasn't been said about this one already...the Jackets are more experienced, but ND has a coaching edge and home field. In a game that shapes up the way this one does (low-scoring and ugly), I would almost rather have the points even if its only a couple. Illinois +210 Not sure if they can score with Mizzou at this juncture of the season, but they figure to be a tough out for a lot of folks this season and I will certainly have my eye on Juice to see how he progresses. Defensive edge and even coaching edge for the Native Americans in this one. Wake Forest +230 The more time passes, the less interested I have become in taking Boston College - for a variety of reasons, but mostly the look-ahead factor. I don't envision a Wake play here either, but they might be live. I am just concerned about their defense. I think that was a special group that won't easily be replaced. Arizona +205 I discussed this one in some measure a bit earlier in the thread. Suffice to say its ML or nothing from the Wildcats standpoint. Army +180 Tons and tons of more research needed. I do like the new Army head coach, but I don't really like his team a whole lot yet. Central Florida +300 Wow, just not sure what to expect from the Pack. Sure could use a redbearde update right about now. I know they have good backs and TOB likes to run so, that is what I would expect. On the other hand, I know what UCF has to offer, lots of promises, seldom of which are ever made good. Their defense was a huge joke, but its still one of the better C-USA units. And now that Moffett is gone their offense figures to flourish, or at least limit costly turnovers...one or the other.
Oklahoma State +240 Live dog, I suspect. Classic ML situation to my way of thinking. Dog is either going to come out firing on all cylinders and do enough to win, or they will get bent over a barrel and have really nasty things done to them. Not even considering the 6-8 pts anymore, its all or nothing. Not the type of defense you really would like to see from a money line candidate. Offense should be dynamic. I have heard folks mention the over in this one and I would really have a hard time arguing with that. Eastern Michigan +???? Here is where I really wish Pinny was still operational cause I know they would put out a ML on this one. Most likely in the neighborhood of +1500. Not sure if cris, dimes, or greek will have one. I don't of course believe that Pitt is worse than EMU, but I believe they are capable of playing down to just about anyone's level. Toledo +225 Another great ML spot. I like Purdue so I cannot promise that I will go ahead with this one, but Toledo has been a home dog 5x in the L7Y and they won each one fucking outright. You do not mess with this team in the Glass Bowl. Got it? I better not see anyone trying to lay the points here, or I will verbally assault you thru my computer. Kansas State +425 Things have a way of changing, that is just the nature of college kids, athletics, and betting lines, but as it stands now this is my favorite puppy that I just unwrapped on Christmas morning. MTSU +115 I consider myself a closet subway alum of the Blue Raiders. I just love the way that team has been run in recent years. Best athletes are put on defense, take no prisoners, play the best competition you can find, if you win that's cool, if not, at least you put it all on the field.
That is 19. I am looking for no more than 3-5 when its all said and done. The first couple weeks have been really rough on dogs the last couple years. I think something ridiculous like 5 won SU last year during WK 1. October, early November, and bowl season are best for these sorts of bets.
Back with the black list either later tonight or tomorrow...
0
Oklahoma State +240 Live dog, I suspect. Classic ML situation to my way of thinking. Dog is either going to come out firing on all cylinders and do enough to win, or they will get bent over a barrel and have really nasty things done to them. Not even considering the 6-8 pts anymore, its all or nothing. Not the type of defense you really would like to see from a money line candidate. Offense should be dynamic. I have heard folks mention the over in this one and I would really have a hard time arguing with that. Eastern Michigan +???? Here is where I really wish Pinny was still operational cause I know they would put out a ML on this one. Most likely in the neighborhood of +1500. Not sure if cris, dimes, or greek will have one. I don't of course believe that Pitt is worse than EMU, but I believe they are capable of playing down to just about anyone's level. Toledo +225 Another great ML spot. I like Purdue so I cannot promise that I will go ahead with this one, but Toledo has been a home dog 5x in the L7Y and they won each one fucking outright. You do not mess with this team in the Glass Bowl. Got it? I better not see anyone trying to lay the points here, or I will verbally assault you thru my computer. Kansas State +425 Things have a way of changing, that is just the nature of college kids, athletics, and betting lines, but as it stands now this is my favorite puppy that I just unwrapped on Christmas morning. MTSU +115 I consider myself a closet subway alum of the Blue Raiders. I just love the way that team has been run in recent years. Best athletes are put on defense, take no prisoners, play the best competition you can find, if you win that's cool, if not, at least you put it all on the field.
That is 19. I am looking for no more than 3-5 when its all said and done. The first couple weeks have been really rough on dogs the last couple years. I think something ridiculous like 5 won SU last year during WK 1. October, early November, and bowl season are best for these sorts of bets.
Back with the black list either later tonight or tomorrow...
Those that did not make or have not yet made the short list.
Buffalo +???? Improved. Not that much. Miss State +1400 ATS might end up working out just because LSU is going to be a newer offense, VT on deck, and its a season opener so anything goes. But in order to win you do have to score SOME points, and there is just no guarantee that MSU will get any at all. Temple +???? See Buffalo. This is a team that allowed 6.0 (!!) yards per carry last season. If that doesn't send up a red flag, you must not be awake. WMU +???? Like the coach, love the defense. Don't especially care for the offense, and even if I did you wouldn't see me take them in this game. ECU +???? After looking at this team a little more, I am starting to like them. Apart from some issues at QB and in the secnodary, I think they compare favorably to much of their conference. Problem is...they aren't playing a team from their conference in this affair. That will be an electric atmosphere and it may well be over before it starts. Marshall +???? You must be joking. This team can't beat their meat. Let alone the Miami Hurricanes. UAB +???? Not this year. Nevada +???? Could end up being a good team, but I don't rate them with much of a shot in this game. Maybe ATS, but probably not even that. Memphis +120 A lot of folks are going to play this one. And to be honest, I guess I can see why. But that is just not the sort of thing I am interested in. Ole Miss is probably faster, definitely has a defensive edge, edge in trench warfare on both sides, and probably a coaching edge as well, and I just don't know about Memphis until they get into C-USA play where they can pick on some teams their own size. NIU +425 Knock yourself out with this one. I am holding an Iowa ticket and I am happy with it. WSU +450 Don't think so. There will be a time and a place for taking a shot with the Cougars this season, but it sure as shit ain't gonna be in Camp Randall on opening day. Stanford +500 Harbaugh has already pissed off Michigan and USC, so he can't be all bad. Unfortunately, his team is. Baylor +???? Discussed this one briefly a few days ago right here in this thread. I am looking at TCU as a possible fade team in what figures to be some lower-scoring games this season, but Baylor doesn't have any offense at all. I hope for their sake its not Michael Machen who gets the start because he is blind in one eye and can't see out of the other. Houston +??? Unclear on why no number has been established yet. At 14.5 its well within the normal realm of money line wagering. I won't be on them in any event. I'm something of a Duck fan so hopefully they will be ready to kick their butts.
0
Those that did not make or have not yet made the short list.
Buffalo +???? Improved. Not that much. Miss State +1400 ATS might end up working out just because LSU is going to be a newer offense, VT on deck, and its a season opener so anything goes. But in order to win you do have to score SOME points, and there is just no guarantee that MSU will get any at all. Temple +???? See Buffalo. This is a team that allowed 6.0 (!!) yards per carry last season. If that doesn't send up a red flag, you must not be awake. WMU +???? Like the coach, love the defense. Don't especially care for the offense, and even if I did you wouldn't see me take them in this game. ECU +???? After looking at this team a little more, I am starting to like them. Apart from some issues at QB and in the secnodary, I think they compare favorably to much of their conference. Problem is...they aren't playing a team from their conference in this affair. That will be an electric atmosphere and it may well be over before it starts. Marshall +???? You must be joking. This team can't beat their meat. Let alone the Miami Hurricanes. UAB +???? Not this year. Nevada +???? Could end up being a good team, but I don't rate them with much of a shot in this game. Maybe ATS, but probably not even that. Memphis +120 A lot of folks are going to play this one. And to be honest, I guess I can see why. But that is just not the sort of thing I am interested in. Ole Miss is probably faster, definitely has a defensive edge, edge in trench warfare on both sides, and probably a coaching edge as well, and I just don't know about Memphis until they get into C-USA play where they can pick on some teams their own size. NIU +425 Knock yourself out with this one. I am holding an Iowa ticket and I am happy with it. WSU +450 Don't think so. There will be a time and a place for taking a shot with the Cougars this season, but it sure as shit ain't gonna be in Camp Randall on opening day. Stanford +500 Harbaugh has already pissed off Michigan and USC, so he can't be all bad. Unfortunately, his team is. Baylor +???? Discussed this one briefly a few days ago right here in this thread. I am looking at TCU as a possible fade team in what figures to be some lower-scoring games this season, but Baylor doesn't have any offense at all. I hope for their sake its not Michael Machen who gets the start because he is blind in one eye and can't see out of the other. Houston +??? Unclear on why no number has been established yet. At 14.5 its well within the normal realm of money line wagering. I won't be on them in any event. I'm something of a Duck fan so hopefully they will be ready to kick their butts.
Central Michigan +240 Mentioned it yesterday. I just prefer the favorite in this particular match-up. I don't think the Chips were totally smoke and mirrors last year, but they aren't going to fool anyone this season and Dan LeFevour will take a little step back in his sophomore slump year. Tough to replace some of the guys they had. I like Sneed though, hopefully he will get some NFL looks. Colorado State +115 I favor CU's chance of winning ever so slightly. I think of this game as being lined jus about perfectly, so no real interest. This has been a very competitive series in recent years so it may be a good game to just watch as long as its televised. Bowling Green +450 Regardless of what I think of the Falcon's chances of winning this game, the fact remains that is simply a horrid value proposition. A dog of nearly 17 really ought to command well over 6:1 in my estimation. But just for the record: I do think they have an outside shot. Tennessee +210 Reveeeeenge... UTEP +135 I can't make heads or tails out of this team. They have the offensive pieces in place (I'm quite sure Price will find an adequate QB - he usually does) to put up some numbers, but as has been the case recently they have nothing on defense. I like New Mexico's team this year to boot. SJSU +425 Here again as with BG, I am forced to throw any notions of this game out the window and ignore it simply because the value is so surpassingly bad. Idaho +???? I actually like Rob Akey. I think that is a decent hire. He has a nice following in the area. The son of my old coworker played LB for Akey at WSU and they all seemed to think he was a good leader and knew what he was doing. This hiring hasn't been very well publicized, mostly because Dennis Erickson is a more interesting/polarizing character, but I think given time and resources Rob Akey might be a good fit. FIU +???? The losing streak continues. Well, if it doesn't, than JoePa should just flat-out be shot in the street. First Cuban-American to be a head football coach at this level. Good luck with that, sir. Arkansas State +???? Based on line movements (or the lack thereof) it would appear that there is some support for the Indians catching 5 TDs and a FG. Sort of unusual given Texas' recent penchant for blowing out inferior opponents. Worth noting, this team is very senior laden with 8 projected defensive starters being in their final year of college football. North Texas +???? OU is no lock to cover this number with the issues Stoops is having in finding a signal caller. They might not even get to 41. The flip side of that is that NT is just mediocre small school that is geared towards running the football and they will attempting to make the switch to an all-out spread em out passing attack. Not likely to find much success initially, let alone against maybe the nation's best secondary. UL-Lafayette +???? The last time something was this one-sided it was King Harrod vs. the babies. Already holding a Gamecocks ticket of -28. I hope they really do like things Cajunized down there, because that is what's gonna happen to their pitiful little defense. Troy +???? Not realistic to expect an upset here, but Troy has proven they can hang. This might be closer than your run-of-the-mill football fan would expect. Although I am not one of the myriad of folks with a Trojans ticket, I do feel that that move was justified. I set the line at 21, so it did look somewhat off to me. No Monk will hurt the credibility of the passing game too. But McFadden is still godlike. SMU +280 I initially considered this group, but that was before the line opened too low and then moved even lower. If it had come at 15 where I projected I would be a lot more interested in the Stangs. Clemson +125 Not even with your money friend. Papa is about due to win one.
Tell me as always what you agree with, where you think I screwed up royally, etc.
Thanks.
0
Central Michigan +240 Mentioned it yesterday. I just prefer the favorite in this particular match-up. I don't think the Chips were totally smoke and mirrors last year, but they aren't going to fool anyone this season and Dan LeFevour will take a little step back in his sophomore slump year. Tough to replace some of the guys they had. I like Sneed though, hopefully he will get some NFL looks. Colorado State +115 I favor CU's chance of winning ever so slightly. I think of this game as being lined jus about perfectly, so no real interest. This has been a very competitive series in recent years so it may be a good game to just watch as long as its televised. Bowling Green +450 Regardless of what I think of the Falcon's chances of winning this game, the fact remains that is simply a horrid value proposition. A dog of nearly 17 really ought to command well over 6:1 in my estimation. But just for the record: I do think they have an outside shot. Tennessee +210 Reveeeeenge... UTEP +135 I can't make heads or tails out of this team. They have the offensive pieces in place (I'm quite sure Price will find an adequate QB - he usually does) to put up some numbers, but as has been the case recently they have nothing on defense. I like New Mexico's team this year to boot. SJSU +425 Here again as with BG, I am forced to throw any notions of this game out the window and ignore it simply because the value is so surpassingly bad. Idaho +???? I actually like Rob Akey. I think that is a decent hire. He has a nice following in the area. The son of my old coworker played LB for Akey at WSU and they all seemed to think he was a good leader and knew what he was doing. This hiring hasn't been very well publicized, mostly because Dennis Erickson is a more interesting/polarizing character, but I think given time and resources Rob Akey might be a good fit. FIU +???? The losing streak continues. Well, if it doesn't, than JoePa should just flat-out be shot in the street. First Cuban-American to be a head football coach at this level. Good luck with that, sir. Arkansas State +???? Based on line movements (or the lack thereof) it would appear that there is some support for the Indians catching 5 TDs and a FG. Sort of unusual given Texas' recent penchant for blowing out inferior opponents. Worth noting, this team is very senior laden with 8 projected defensive starters being in their final year of college football. North Texas +???? OU is no lock to cover this number with the issues Stoops is having in finding a signal caller. They might not even get to 41. The flip side of that is that NT is just mediocre small school that is geared towards running the football and they will attempting to make the switch to an all-out spread em out passing attack. Not likely to find much success initially, let alone against maybe the nation's best secondary. UL-Lafayette +???? The last time something was this one-sided it was King Harrod vs. the babies. Already holding a Gamecocks ticket of -28. I hope they really do like things Cajunized down there, because that is what's gonna happen to their pitiful little defense. Troy +???? Not realistic to expect an upset here, but Troy has proven they can hang. This might be closer than your run-of-the-mill football fan would expect. Although I am not one of the myriad of folks with a Trojans ticket, I do feel that that move was justified. I set the line at 21, so it did look somewhat off to me. No Monk will hurt the credibility of the passing game too. But McFadden is still godlike. SMU +280 I initially considered this group, but that was before the line opened too low and then moved even lower. If it had come at 15 where I projected I would be a lot more interested in the Stangs. Clemson +125 Not even with your money friend. Papa is about due to win one.
Tell me as always what you agree with, where you think I screwed up royally, etc.
Gar--Since I use "historical" numbers for home field advantage, I actually do rate Aub with a 12 pt HFA in the match-up with KST. I use an avg of a teams' performance(home-AUB and away-KST) over the last 4 year period. Some teams I have issues with if there has been a huge change or matriculation, etc, but overall, it has worked very well for me the last 15 or so years. Over the last 4 yrs, AUB home games have resulted in a +20ppg for them and KST over the same period has a -5 on the road, giving AUB a 12pt HFA vs KST. AUB is 19-3 SU at home the last 3 yrs and KST is only 3-10 SU on the road the last 3 yrs.
I agree that there is very little difference in the talent level here and I give KST the edge in ST, even with their losses. But, it is tough for me to back a team that has performed so poorly on the road vs a team who has been dominant. KST has some ugly losses on the road the last couple of yrs(Baylor, MO, KU, ISU,etc). The value looks solid for a team of KST's history(not recent) and seemingly equal talent, but their road issues are severe.
0
Gar--Since I use "historical" numbers for home field advantage, I actually do rate Aub with a 12 pt HFA in the match-up with KST. I use an avg of a teams' performance(home-AUB and away-KST) over the last 4 year period. Some teams I have issues with if there has been a huge change or matriculation, etc, but overall, it has worked very well for me the last 15 or so years. Over the last 4 yrs, AUB home games have resulted in a +20ppg for them and KST over the same period has a -5 on the road, giving AUB a 12pt HFA vs KST. AUB is 19-3 SU at home the last 3 yrs and KST is only 3-10 SU on the road the last 3 yrs.
I agree that there is very little difference in the talent level here and I give KST the edge in ST, even with their losses. But, it is tough for me to back a team that has performed so poorly on the road vs a team who has been dominant. KST has some ugly losses on the road the last couple of yrs(Baylor, MO, KU, ISU,etc). The value looks solid for a team of KST's history(not recent) and seemingly equal talent, but their road issues are severe.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
