Underdog Money Lines Week 1 (8/30-9/3)

Now why did you have to go and remind me of that?

Back in my totally dumbass betting days, I'd do stupid stuff, strictly  for this purpose:

That weekend, I had a 15 team teaser. . .  14 of them hit. . .  the one that didn't?  You guessed it. . .  Miami -10 

Teasers
GT
Miami

Going in to do some work early today.  Will reply in the evening.

Brass, not really looking at WF.

Responses will be forthcoming in the next day or two fellas, I haven't forgotten about you, but I have some extended family in town right now.

We just lost Wahoo, so its incumbent on all the vets to button down the hatches, circle the wagons and cap our asses off this year.

reppertch, as far as last year goes, I didn't keep the records although it probably wouldn't be that tough to figure out.  Two years ago, when I hit about 40% of the MLDs and cleared 50 units, I calculated that I would have hit about 61% if I had played those dogs on the line instead of the money line.  That is about 15-20 units of profit being that I placed around 102 dog wagers.  Now that isn't bad, but by comparison it isn't very good either.  I realize a lot of folks are uncomfortable taking dogs that need to win, especially when its so reassuring to be getting two TDs and only be down a field goal late in the fourth quarter, but if you are able to break away from that mindset and just deal with the fact that will lose some frustrating games, the returns really are a whole lot better.

Brassknux, I do not see value in Wake in this particular game.  I think they lost way too much on defense to deal with a team like BC that should be rolling along pretty well right out of the gate.  I don't get the sense that the BC offense is in for a dramatic change in spite of the new staff.  They have the personnel to run or throw as far as I am concerned.  Wake has some nice continuity on offense and may well put up some points, but the fact remains that they didn't put up a lot of points last year either, only reaching 30 against a pair of 1A schools.  As I look back at the box score from last year's game its hard to see how Wake even won, but they did get the TO edge and had a big play which ended up being the difference.

I will not argue the point about the coaching edge as I believe Jim Grobe is one of the best in the business, but they won't fool anyone this year.  You can't diminish an 11-win season, its impossible to, and even if I could I wouldn't, but I'm just not sure that they will be able to repeat that any time soon and I think a lot of the breaks went their way last year.  I really can't stress enough the losses they will have in the secondary.  This year they lose three guys that made NFL rosters and even with them last year Matt Ryan hit em up for 402 yards.  I think the air-raid sirens are going off already in that locker room.

I like BC's defense - a lot actually.  I thought Frank Spaziani should have been made the HC, but at least he is still around.  I would prefer that they have Toal, but there is depth there.  That is one area where BC can afford to lose a great player.  The biggest reason I haven't taken the Eagles yet (and may not take them at all) is because of who comes to town the next week.

A lot of folks had that line in the 20s and although that may well end up being the final margin of victory, the line really has no business being above about 18 or 19.  Home dogs of 20 points or more in SEC play are really really rare and this situation didn't justify one.  I made it 18 so I would say the value is with the Bayou Bengals, but its not the sort of thing I am going to be betting on.  I hate road favorites in general, especially ones of this size, and then in the season opener?  No thanks.  It could end up 100-0 just like the last couple years, but even so I think my money is better spent in other ways.

GL this year.

Washington State generally has a pretty good defense, but I'm just not sure that is going to be the case this season.  The DTs are average and the ends only slightly above average with Broadus being a Dwight Freeney type player.  For the first time in several years I don't like their LB corps.  Trent is alright but not up to par with either Dildine or Derting and the secondary is young.  The offense brings back its skill guys and should put up a few points, but the OL is average and Camp Randall can be really tough on visitors.  Wisconsin is usually nasty in their first home game each year.  The biggest reason I cannot take the Cougs is because of what they showed last year @ Auburn - or more accurately stated, what they failed to show.  I thought there was an outside shot at the upset and I at least thought the game could be semi-close, but it got away from them pretty early on.  They were lucky to be in it at the end of the first Q.

For Wiscy's part I like their team and program and if it weren't for a brutal schedule I could see them winding up in the title game.  They are saying there is a bona fide QB controversy which is hard for me to believe, I don't see anyway that Donovan being of sound mind and body doesn't get the nod.  PJ Hill is the focus in any event and he has one helluva line blocking for him.  I like the way the Badgers use their receivers, some blocking some route running, some decoy.  Their stop unit is going to be state-of-the-art, particularly the front seven and that is why I like their team so much.

I will not be on WSU either with the points or without.  The biggest reason I am reluctant to give the Badgers a shot is the non-explosive nature of their offense.  Running teams tend to eat a lot of clock and generally don't score as quickly making them more difficult to bet on as a two touchdown favorite.  Wisconsin can blow out lesser teams though so I wouldn't be surprised to see a multi-TD ass kicking but something in my gut tells me this one might be right around the number all game long.

Bookmaker has the number posted at 47.5 which I think might end up being a little bit high, but its tough to say for sure.

GL whatever you decide.

Well, its the MAC so its either: dog, over, or nothing.  I was starting to look into that one earlier in the week, but got side-tracked by a couple other MAC games.  I will get back to you on this one.  Probably Monday or Tuesday, but definitely by the time you get back from Philly.

 

Thanks for the insight Gar. Definitely some good info on BC. Say what you will about the ACC, but a pretty decent team is going to come in last in that Atlantic division, whoever it ends up being.

 One of my weeknesses as a capper is that I sometimes get emotionally involved with a team, either positively or negatively. I fear that might be the case with Auburn this year, since I think they are in trouble and I hate Tommy Tuberville with such a bloodthirsty passion. It's also likely to happen  with Wake, because I made money on every one of their games last year by simply fading the favorite. It worked every week until the bowl game with Louisville, and they should have covered that one too.

Since they're a dog(Wake), I'll be fading BC. Hopefully it won't backfire, but every once in awhile you'll see trends that continue to work year to year.

 

Once again, thanks for your insights.

No problem.

As I said above, you don't want to remove plays before you ever have the chance to see them develop, and I hold to that, but I also said above that sometimes you can tell just by the smell if something is likely to be a play or not, and my nose has helped me rule out a bunch recently.

Going ahead and removing Clemson as I already have an FSU ticket.  Took off Tennessee as well, not just because of Coker but also because they are probably walking into an ass-kicking.  Removing UTEP as well based on such a large number of unknowns (read: the entire defense and QB). 

In a move that might be somewhat unpopular, I am eliminating CMU from contention as well even though I haven't seen the number yet.  I know they figure to be a popular dog choice as people like rooting for an underdog and particularly an upstart small school, but I actually favor the KU side here.  I like Mangino in spite of his eating habbits and I think they are just going to be too fast for the Chips the way UM and BC ultimately were.  I am a Kerry Meier fan and am looking for a better season from him.  While teams like Nebraska/Texas/TAMU/OU won't be impressed by Meier's mobility I think that it could cause some real problems for a smaller school like Central.  I noticed this last year when KU played @ Toledo, the Rockets had few answers for his running.  And more to the point, CMU is young in the positions responsible for containment (DE/OLB).  In terms of the trenches, some teams can lose draft choices the way Central did, but those are BCS teams who reload talent year in and year out.  Mid-majors for the most part don't get guys like Staley and Bazuin more than once a decade and I think that will be felt.  As if the matchup on the field wasn't enough to turn me away from this ML dog, I saw that the spread dropped down to 7, so any value that ever existed is slipping away before the MLs are even up on the board.

Colorado State just won't be worth it.  That has been a really close series recently so any points that available could prove to be worth it.

SMU is out due to my preference for TT in that game and also the horrid Red Raider defense makes a backdoor opportunity more likely so the points would look better.

Kansas State is looking more and more like a play.  Duke less and less.  MTSU and USU also slipping away from contention, but not official.

I am looking to get 3-5 ML dogs for week one.  Early weeks have been real bad for upsets the last few years.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (0): none yet, but after Live Chatting w/ Bookmaker, we should expect NCAA money lines to be released on or around the 23rd of this month.

Prospective Plays (22): MiamiOH, Kent, Utah St, Utah, UL-Monroe, Syracuse, Duke, Wyoming, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Wake Forest, Arizona, Army, Central Florida, Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Kansas State, Bowling Green, SJSU, and MTSU.

I do agree with the removal of CMU, and I think we all can agree their success from last year probably won't carry over as they are breaking in a new HC and lose a couple key guys on D.  I can definitely see them staying within the number, but it's just impossible for me to believe they continue to play as well as they did toward the end of last year in spite of these losses.  They pretty much got on a roll at the end of the year, and I'm not sure that momentum can be carried over through an entire offseason.

As far as ML dogs go for Week 1, I'm just not seeing a lot of appealing plays.  The only ones I consider live at this point are Miami OH, Utah, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Army.  I don't know what it is, but I don't like my chances with some of the short dogs like Kent, ULM, Memphis, and Arizona, who all seem like they have a good chance of winning on paper.  Just not able to envision those teams pulling it out.

I'll never forget you taking Oregon State ML over Washington last year...you were like "this just fits" and that was pretty much all you said about it, and it hit at around +300 or so...hahah...

linde, can you do me a favor and write-up that Cuse game?  I just don't know much about them, and maybe we can have Mugg in here to give us the UW angle.  That is a game I really haven't looked at much largely because both teams are unknowns on offense as far as I am concerned.  I know almost nothing about Locker.

You are one of the few that has shown any interest in betting the Orange, so I would like to see what you have to say about it.

Both of those coaches might be already on the hot seat and I don't think its their fault in either case.